在埃塞俄比亚建立货币传导机制

Building MonetaryTransmission in Ethiopia Deirdre Daly, Bryan Gurhy SIP/2025/106 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on June 16, 2025. This paper is alsopublished separately as IMF Country Report No 2025/189. 2025JUL IMF Selected Issues PaperAfrican Department Building Monetary Transmission in EthiopiaPrepared by Deirdre Daly and Bryan Gurhy Authorized for distribution byAnnalisa FedelinoJuly 2025 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on June 16, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/189. ABSTRACT:This Selected Issues Paper reviews Ethiopia’s transition to an interest-rate based monetaryframework. For this framework to be effective, monetary transmission—the process through which policy ratechanges affect inflation and economic activity—must function reliably. Achieving this, requires a clear, well-communicated policy framework, strong analytical capacity, and continued efforts to address structural featuresthat may hamper transmission. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Daly, D. and Gurhy, B. (2025). “Building Monetary Transmission in Ethiopia,”IMF Selected Issues Paper No. 2025/106; Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund Building MonetaryTransmission in Ethiopia FederalDemocratic Republic ofEthiopia Prepared by Deirdre Daly and Bryan Gurhy THE FEDERAL DEMOCRATICREPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA SELECTED ISSUES ApprovedByAfrican Department PreparedbyDeirdre Daly (AFR) and Bryan Gurhy (MCM). BUILDING MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION IN ETHIOPIA ________________________2 FIGURES 1. Inflation versus Sub-Saharan African Peers, June 2016–February 2025 _________________22. Monetary Aggregates __________________________________________________________________33. Interest Rates __________________________________________________________________________64. Supply Shocks__________________________________________________________________________85. Financial Sector _______________________________________________________________________10 TABLES 1. Foundations for Interest-Rate Based Monetary Policy Framework _____________________42. Lessons from Peer-Country Experience in Strengthening Monetary Transmission_____113. Transition to Interest-Rate Based Monetary Policy Framework Country Examples_____13 References_______________________________________________________________________________14 BUILDING MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION INETHIOPIA This Selected Issues Paper reviews Ethiopia’s transition to an interest-rate based monetary framework.For this framework to be effective, monetary transmission—the process through which policy ratechanges affect inflation and economic activity—must function reliably. Achieving this, requires a clear,well-communicated policy framework, strong analytical capacity, and continued efforts to addressstructural features that may hamper transmission. 1.Although price stability has been an important NBE objective, Ethiopia has struggledto achieve it over the past decade.The NBE has had a legal mandate to deliver stable prices (among other objectives historicallyincluding financial sector andexchange rate stability andpromoting economic growth).However,inflation has beenpersistently high, compared withother regional economies, andexceeded double digits since 2018(Figure 1). 2.Modernizing the monetarypolicy framework is a key part ofthe Homegrown EconomicReform Agenda (HGER), launchedin 2020, with the objective ofcorrecting macroeconomicimbalances and supportingprivate sector led growth. Effortsto strengthen monetary policy aimto reduce inflation, including managing potential inflationary impacts from the transition to a flexible exchange rate (another keyelement of the HGER). In this connection, both monetary and fiscal policy have been tightened togradually reduce, and in FY2024/25 eliminate, the use of direct NBE advances to finance the budget. Prior to July 2024, the NBE operated under a monetary targeting (MT) policy framework. MT frameworks are grounded in the quantity theory of money, which holds thatinflation can be controlled by managing the growth of the money supply, assuming that demand formoney has a stable relationship with aggregate output and prices (i.e. a stable velocity of money).Under this framework, the NBE used reserve money as an operational target. While monetarytargeting frameworks may be appropriate in some circumstances, stable money demandrelationships are rarely observed in practice, making MT frameworks less effective and with often unpredictable results. In Ethiopia, money demand has shifted over time, reflected in changes in boththe money multiplier and velocity of money, which may be due to behavioral changes