提高税收收入的有效机制（英）

ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANKTheADB Economics Working Paper Seriespresents research in progress to elicit commentsand encourage debate on development issuesin Asia and the Pacific. The views expressedare those of the authors and do not necessarilyreflect the views and policies of ADB orits Board of Governors or the governmentsthey represent.ADB Economics Working Paper SeriesEffective Mechanisms for Raising Tax RevenuesJong Woo Kang and Lovely TolinNo. 790 | July 2025 Jong Woo Kang (jkang@adb.org) is the directorof Regional Cooperation and Integration Divisionand Lovely Tolin (lovelyanntolin@gmail.com)is a consultant at the Economic Research andDevelopment Impact Department,Asian Development Bank. Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)© 2025 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, PhilippinesTel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444Some rights reserved. Published in 2025.ISSN 2313-6537 (print), 2313-6545 (PDF)Publication Stock No. WPS250263-2DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/WPS250263-2The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policiesof the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent.ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for anyconsequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that theyare endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, ADB does notintend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.This publication is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be boundby the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisionsand terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess.This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributedto another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it.ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material.Please contact pubsmarketing@adb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wishto obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to useCorrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. www.adb.orgthe ADB logo. ABSTRACTHow well raising tax rates can succeed for an economy intent on increasing tax revenue andnarrowing the tax-to-GDP-ratio gap with other economies depends on its ability to meet certainconditions. This paper investigates these conditions and demonstrates that expanding the taxbase as a proportion of GDP, either through a tax rate increase or rationalizing loopholes and taxexpenditure, is crucial if efforts to increase tax revenues are to be effective. We test this theoreticalfindingthrough empirical analysis,including the Instrumental Variables—Two-Stage LeastSquares (IV-2SLS) approach, and show how broadening the tax base is critical not only forincreasing tax revenues but also for ensuring that an increase in the tax rate expands fiscalrevenue. The findings highlight the importance of a balanced approach in tax policy design toachieve revenue goals while maintaining economic efficiency.Keywords:tax rate, tax revenue, tax base ratio, direct tax JEL codes:H20, H24, H26 1.IntroductionTax revenue constitutes the core of public finance, which supports economic growth andexpands social safety nets through economic and social expenditure and public entitlements. Thedesign of a tax system, including adequately engineering marginal tax rates and average tax ratesacross tax items and tax brackets, determines the efficiency and equity of the mechanism forgenerating expected revenues. In many developing economies, however, design considerationsare outweighed by the low level of overall tax revenues for funding essential fiscal expenditureand supporting new requirements such as climate financing and the need to address issuesresulting from aging populations. It is not surprising that International Monetary Fund (IMF)financial assistance programs brokered with economies in distress have entailed stringent fiscalreforms, including raising tax revenues to mend fiscal deficits and rein in growing debt-to-GDPratios, to restore investor and international capital market confidence in their public finances.The determinants of tax revenue are multifaceted, with the tax base and tax rate playingpivotal roles. The tax base encompa