2025超级趋势：重构投资组合，重绘全球图景

analytical optimisation architecture thatexplicitly acknowledges the inherentuncertainty of market inputs (including risk,expected returns and correlation) across arange of outcomes. This approach to The global order faces seismic shiftscatalysed by the Trump administration. Thiscrucible of change heralds the start of a Since Bank of Singapore’s Chief InvestmentOffice (CIO) convened our inaugural GlobalAdvisory Council (CIO GAC) in 2024, ourfocus on thought leadership as the The intelligence economy describes atransformed world as artificial intelligence(AI) enters our lives across domains. AgenticAI is the next frontier as AI models capableof highly complex use cases becomepartners and collaborators with human More than ever, this platform allows for thediverse perspectives of our Councilmembers from think tanks to leadinginvestment firms to augment prescient CIO The arena for global competition isextending beyond military might. Nationsand regions now focus on securing energysources and infrastructure, reliable food Together, the complementary views of theCIO and our esteemed GAC councilmembers are presented in this latest “2025 Over the next five years, these five keySupertrends covering geopolitics,macroeconomics, asset allocation,technology, environment and While immigration solves the demographictrends in developed countries, it acts as alightning rod in the political agenda forpopulist viewpoints. The combination offalling fertility rates and longevity pointtoward a rising share of senior citizens to 16% i.Changing World Order – Bordersand Barriersii.Robust Asset Allocationiii.The Intelligence Economy – AI Fragmentation in the world order, wheremultilateralism and globalisation may nolonger be basic tenets, implies thatcoalitions and alliances will be foundedinstead on common interests and agenda.Since “Liberation Day”, US President Trump’sthreat of punitive tariffs regimes has sparked “In the short run, the market is avoting machine, but in the long run, it isa weighing machine.” Yours truly,Jean Chia,Global ChiefInvestment Officer, Amid geopolitical shifts, economic regimechanges and evolving business models,building long-term portfolios demands adisciplined approach. A “Robust Asset •A new world order of geopoliticalrivalry, rising trade barriers, hostility toimmigration and widening populismis rapidly replacing the US-led order We expect the shift away from the US-ledorder to a more fragmented world will result inpersistent inflation, higher interest rates, aweaker USD, record gold prices and stronger •The new order is still emerging andmay keep evolving for the rest of thedecade as coalitions come togetheron common interests (e.g. Europeand China on climate change, free First, inflation is likely to be fuelled byseveral aspects of the emerging new The following chart shows core inflation inthe US has been above the FederalReserve’s (Fed) 2% target for five years •But we expect the shift away from theUS-led order to a more fragmentedworld will result in persistent inflation,higher interest rates, a weaker USD, A new, more fractured world is rapidlyreplacing the US-led order of freemarkets, free trade and globalisation that ChangingWorld Order– Borders Following the shocks of the pandemic in2020 and the start of the wars in Ukraine in2022 and the Middle East in 2023, thereturn of US President Trump has We expect the new Trumpadministration’s policies of increasedexpenditure on defence to sustain its The new world order is still emerging andmay keep evolving for the rest of thedecade as coalitions come together oncommon interests (e.g. Europe and Chinaon climate change, free trade) while Similarly, we expect higher defencespending in Europe to counter the threatof Russian aggression, and in the MiddleEast and Asia as the Trump administration The emergence of populist governmentsin the US, Italy and Hungary, and the riseof far-right populist parties in France,Germany, Spain, the Netherlands and theNordic countries are also likely to lead to The last chart below shows globalmanagers strongly reduced their share ofthe UST market sharply after the 2008 For the rest of the decade, we expectgovernment bond yields and interest rateswill remain elevated. For example, weforecast 10Y UST yields to average 5.00%over the next five to 10 years as US core The Trump administration’s plans toextend tax cuts are likely to keep the At the same time, higher trade barriers,tougher hurdles against legal and illegalimmigration, and increased geopolitical In addition, budget deficits are set to risesharply in Germany and China as Berlinrelaxes its “debt brake” to raise spendingon defence and infrastructure and Beijingloosens its fiscal policy to help cushion Third, the USD is likely to weakensignificantly The emerging new world order is alsolikely to cause the USD to weakensignificantly over the next few years. The Thus, we expect inflation rates that hadstayed subdued across the US, UK,