高频：期现共振还是回归现实？

请阅读最后一页的重要声明！证券研究报告分析师孙彬彬SAC证书编号：S0160525020001sunbb@ctsec.com分析师隋修平SAC证书编号：S0160525020003suixp@ctsec.com分析师刘金金SAC证书编号：S0160524050001liujj01@ctsec.com联系人许帆xufan@ctsec.com相关报告1.《130元+，转债狂想曲》252.《利率|“看商品做债”的逻辑再探讨》2025-07-233.《海外|美债的“安全溢价”在消失》2025-07-22 核心观点❖❖本持平。❖❖❖风险提示：性 2025-07- 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准内容目录1国内商品期货：周五夜盘商品期货价格大幅回落...........................................................42地产销售：地产销售动能偏弱...................................................................................53投资：商品价格涨跌互现.........................................................................................94生产：开工率表现分化...........................................................................................105消费：出行动能较强..............................................................................................126出口：SCFI下行、BDI大幅上行.............................................................................127物价：菜价上行，油价下降.....................................................................................138风险提示.............................................................................................................14图表目录图1：主要高频指标周度跟踪........................................................................................4图2：DCE焦炭7月以来日K线..................................................................................5图3：CZCE棉花2016年11月日K线.........................................................................5图4：商品期货收盘价涨跌幅（截至7月25日15:00）....................................................5图5：全国及典型城市周度商品房成交面积跟踪................................................................6图6：20城新房成交面积.............................................................................................6图7：一线城市新房成交面积（4城）.............................................................................6图8：二线城市新房成交面积（8城）.............................................................................6图9：三四线城市新房成交面积（8城）..........................................................................6图10：典型城市周度商品房成交面积跟踪.......................................................................7图11：北京新房成交面积............................................................................................7图12：上海新房成交面积............................................................................................7图13：广州新房成交面积............................................................................................7图14：深圳新房成交面积............................................................................................7图15：杭州新房成交面积............................................................................................8图16：苏州新房成交面积............................................................................................8图17：典型城市周度二手房成交面积跟踪.......................................................................8 2 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准3图18：北京二手房成交面积.........................................................................................8图19：上海二手房成交面积.........................................................................................8图20：深圳二手房成交面积.........................................................................................9图21：杭州二手房成交面积.........................................................................................9图22：螺纹钢表观消费量大幅上行................................................................................9图23：螺纹钢价格大幅上升.........................................................................................9图24：库存:螺纹钢(含上海全部仓库)上升 .....................................................................10图25：玻璃期货合约结算价大幅上行............................................................................10图26：水泥价格指数下降...........................................................................................10图27：沥青价格指数小幅下降.....................................................................................10图28：石油沥青开工率大幅下行..................................................................................11图29：钢厂高炉开工率基本持平..................................................................................11图30：汽车轮胎开工率小幅下行..................................................................................11图31：焦化企业开工率上行........................................................................................11图32：涤纶长丝开工率下行........................................................................................11图33：PTA开工率基本持平.........................................................................................11图34：乘用车当周日均厂家零售符合季节性...................................................................12图35：8城地铁出行符合季节性...................................................................................12图36：电影票房MA7低于季节性..................................................................................12图37：国内执行航班（MA7）符合季节性........................................................................12图38：上海出口集装箱运价指数下行............................................................................13图39：波罗的海干散货指数大幅上行............................................................................13图4