有色金属行业周报：供给端扰动发酵，锂价持续突破

请仔细阅读本报告末页声明投资EPS（元）评级2024A2025E2026E买入0.781.16买入0.941.33买入0.630.68买入2.412.33买入0.410.48 2027E1.411.741.541.670.790.872.492.700.540.58 增持（维持）张航执业证书编号：S0680524090002邮箱：zhanghang@gszq.com初金娜执业证书编号：S0680525050001邮箱：chujinna@gszq.com何承洋执业证书编号：S0680124070005邮箱：hechengyang@gszq.com1、《有色金属：2025年二季度持仓分析：持仓环比上涨，战略资源重估加速》2025-07-262、《有色金属：“反内卷”政策驱动延续，看好金属价格上行》2025-07-203、《小金属：锑：内盘充分筑底，出口修复锑价或迎突破》2025-07-15PE2025E2026E16.2313.3117.8715.4213.4611.659.238.6640.0835.122024-112025-03有色金属沪深300 作者分析师分析师研究助理相关研究2024A28.3022.9012.706.6028.00 2027E10.8414.2310.537.9933.02 P.2内容目录一、周度数据跟踪..................................................................................................................................51.1板块&公司涨跌：本周有色金属板块大幅上涨.................................................................................51.2价格及库存变动：周内有色品种价格涨跌不一................................................................................61.3公司公告跟踪.............................................................................................................................8二、贵金属............................................................................................................................................9三、工业金属........................................................................................................................................123.1铜：关税缓和与反内卷情绪带动，铜价走强..................................................................................123.2铝：“反内卷”政策情绪反复，短期铝价震荡运行..........................................................................133.3镍：成本支撑渐强，市场报价有所上抬........................................................................................16四、能源金属........................................................................................................................................184.1锂：供给端扰动持续发酵，锂价延续突破.....................................................................................184.2钴：钴盐原料价持续高位，厂家报价维持坚挺...............................................................................214.3金属硅：“反内卷”政策传导市场，短期硅价偏强震荡...................................................................22五、稀土&磁材......................................................................................................................................25风险提示..............................................................................................................................................27图表目录图表1：本周各大行业涨跌比较（%）....................................................................................................5图表2：本周申万有色二级行业指数涨跌（%）.......................................................................................5图表3：本周申万有色三级行业指数涨跌（%）.......................................................................................5图表4：本周有色板块涨幅前十（%）....................................................................................................6图表5：本周有色板块跌幅前十（%）....................................................................................................6图表6：贵金属价格涨跌........................................................................................................................6图表7：基本金属价格涨跌.....................................................................................................................6图表8：能源金属价格涨跌.....................................................................................................................7图表9：稀土金属价格涨跌.....................................................................................................................7图表10：小金属价格涨跌......................................................................................................................7图表11：交易所基本金属库存变动.........................................................................................................8图表12：有色分板块公司公告跟踪.........................................................................................................8图表13：美联储资产负债表规模............................................................................................................9图表14：白银价格走势.........................................................................................................................9图表15：美元实际利率与金价走势........................................................................................................10图表16：美国国债收益率（%）...........................................................................................................10图表17：美元指数走势........................................................................................................................10图表18：SPDR黄金ETF持有量（吨）..................................................................................................10图表19：美国新增非农就业与失业率.....................................................................................................10图表20：铜金比与金银比走势..............................................................................................................10图表21：美国制造业PMI（%）..........................................................................................................