电力行业周报：6月风光新增装机回落，绿电有望迎来反转

请仔细阅读本报告末页声明行业走势作者分析师执业证书编号：S0680520070001邮箱：zhangjinming@gszq.com分析师执业证书编号：S0680524100001邮箱：gaoziming@gszq.com分析师执业证书编号：S0680524070012邮箱：liuliyu@gszq.com相关研究1、《电力：6月电量数据：6月全社会用电增5.4%，火电持续正增长》2025-07-222、《电力：甘肃首推省级发电侧容量电价，煤电固定成本全额补偿》2025-07-203、《电力：可再生能源电力消纳责任权重下发，五大行业强制绿电消费》2025-07-13股票投资EPS（元）名称评级2024A2025E2026E2027E买入0.580.470.540.58买入0.910.941.041.06买入0.550.430.510.54买入0.650.770.780.83买入0.920.930.961.02买入0.761.722.102.51买入0.400.550.640.73 增持（维持）张津铭高紫明刘力钰PE2025E2026E11.269.727.797.0410.849.189.139.037.387.2115.3812.5914.2412.282024-112025-03电力沪深300 2024A10.108.208.3011.207.5034.5018.50 2027E9.036.868.678.446.7710.5510.75 P.2内容目录1.本周行业观点......................................................................................................................................31.1 6月风光新增装机回落，绿电有望迎来反转...................................................................................31.2火电：煤价反弹至650元/吨........................................................................................................31.3水电：7月25日三峡入库流量同比下降21.67%，出库流量同比下降55.71%...................................51.4绿电：硅料价格上升，主流硅片价格上升......................................................................................61.5碳市场：交易价格较上周上升1.21%............................................................................................82.本周行情回顾......................................................................................................................................93.行业资讯............................................................................................................................................103.1行业要闻...................................................................................................................................103.2重点公司公告............................................................................................................................12风险提示..............................................................................................................................................13图表目录图表1：环渤海动力煤（Q5500）市场价（单位：元/吨）..........................................................................3图表2：秦皇岛港动力煤库存（万吨）....................................................................................................3图表3：沿海8省电厂-库存（万吨）......................................................................................................4图表4：沿海8省电厂-日耗（万吨）......................................................................................................4图表5：中国LNG到岸价（单位：美元/百万英热单位）...........................................................................4图表6：中国LNG出厂价格全国指数（单位：元/吨）...............................................................................4图表7：火电发电量（单位：亿千瓦时）.................................................................................................4图表8：火电新增装机量（单位：万千瓦）..............................................................................................4图表9：火电平均利用小时数（单位：小时）...........................................................................................5图表10：火电投资完成额（单位：亿元）...............................................................................................5图表11：三峡入库流量（立方米/秒） .....................................................................................................5图表12：三峡出库流量（立方米/秒） .....................................................................................................5图表13：水电发电量（单位：亿千瓦时）...............................................................................................6图表14：水电新增装机量（单位：万千瓦）............................................................................................6图表15：水电平均利用小时数（单位：小时）.........................................................................................6图表16：水电投资完成额（单位：亿元）...............................................................................................6图表17：硅料及组件价格......................................................................................................................7图表18：风光发电量（单位：亿千瓦时）...............................................................................................7图表19：风光新增装机量（单位：万千瓦）............................................................................................7图表20：风光利用小时数（单位：小时）...............................................................................................8图表21：风电投资完成额（单位：亿元）...............................................................................................8图表22：本周全国碳市场碳排放配额(CEA)挂牌协议交易成交量（单位：吨）.............................................8图表23：全国碳市场碳排放配额（CEA）挂牌协议交易收盘价（单位：元/吨）...........................................8图表24：本周市场及行业表现...............................................................................................................9图表25：本周中信一级各行业涨跌幅......................................................................................................9图表26：本周电力及公用事业（中信）个股涨跌幅.................................................................................10图表27：重点公司公告..............................