全球大类资产配置周观察：关税谈判与降息悬念，谁在主导资产秩序?
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騟ⲏ䖪꭛騣婞倁劅⻑溸╚㎼ꧼ岉駩⯟艧⚌劔ꮺ⪫⺶⩹鯰㛽僻2025䌑07劓26傽*yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn⮕卥䉞溫駘罒焺S01305220300042025-07-22⪫Ⳬ㕈ꓭ◝㳌䍳䭦♎劔〘◲澚掾2025-07-16A艧낊呬鿛䰄溸⸉⺮㜩漽┱㎈嵱⮕卥2025-07-152025䌑╚㝠㓻䉗䈰✑⚷駖⫐㵽闌騣╚㝠㓻䉗䈰✑⚷駖⯈㟲A艧䉗㐙ꊙ◲升㑊2025-06-262025䌑㝕稝鰑分╚劻䫌鰑㺥労뎣⺈騳2025-06-222025䌑艧╚劻䫌鰑㺥労僓瓌┿儅2025-06-212025䌑A艧╚劻䫌鰑㺥労瞣㕈鉿甯2025-06-10:甯㴼䉕嚤䗼䫌鰑㺥労2025-05-29┪䉗⪫⺶䌔鯺ꓨ缀ꁹ匡〘◲假⺈2025-05-21⛽⯈椚僓♣姚嵌鰑分ꏕ翞⼅獏2025-05-12⪸瓭罏⾕⟥⺵┬〘◲升㑊劔労⺇漩2025-05-08耘臅⥈5劓駖䛉⚷駖掾駬䫟⼴㐃ꄽ芤┱銻ꃹ뀔劻▇ꭊ耘臅⥈㠁✇䪹䭃2025-05-07⪸ꨴ僓ꭊ虹掾溸䉘⚷┞䴗㲳ꓭ鄌侓2025-05-05䌑䫟⾕┞㳌䫟劔〘◲☗掾2025-05-04◩┞⢏劻◜⚂唯槏䉗㐙㺥労2025-04-254劓╚㝠侓岖㹾⚷駖闌騣䭦缩甯㴼⾕嵛鳢鰑续䉗㐙臔撌〘◲做긖2025-04-24⪫Ⳬ㕈ꓭ┞㳌䍳䭦♎ꓤ侒〘◲⟥⺵2025-04-08╚㎼曬䌐⬮㕈ꓭ埭疿⮃┿䳀䮵䉗㐙⟥䖦2025-04-08寤ꓭ⪝䉗㑏㴼澚㝃 llllll ⮕卥䉞匤鱪(010-8092-7696潸⪸煝疵ⲹ閒勨脯✑ꓨ㗛뮿假瞬甯䉗㐙甯뀔劻 騟ⲏ䖪꭛騣婞倁劅⻑溸╚㎼ꧼ岉駩⯟艧⚌劔ꮺ⪫⺶⩹鯰㛽僻ն潨䓡Catalog┞յ⪢槊㝕稝鰑☋銩楓..........................................................................................................................◝յ㝕㴵ガ......................................................................................................................................┞묛ꓭ䉗㐙.......................................................................................................................................◝ⸯ岓䉗㐙.......................................................................................................................................┩յ⡺⯟䉗㐙......................................................................................................................................┞耘⡺侅漩椚....................................................................................................................................◝╚⡺侅漩椚....................................................................................................................................㎃յ寤椚䉗㐙......................................................................................................................................┞耘⩧䭰俚.......................................................................................................................................◝姚⩧⩽耘⩧....................................................................................................................................┩蝠꩗⩽耘⩧....................................................................................................................................㎃耘⩧⩽傽⩧....................................................................................................................................◩耘⩧⩽☭宑䉕.................................................................................................................................◩յ勶漩䉗㐙......................................................................................................................................⪮յ낊ꯟ䳀獏...................................................................................................................................... 1 騟ⲏ䖪꭛騣婞倁劅⻑溸╚㎼ꧼ岉駩⯟艧⚌劔ꮺ⪫⺶⩹鯰㛽僻ն┞յ⪢槊㝕稝鰑☋銩楓2025䌑7劓21傽 蔸7劓25傽杅 劫 册 侓 䍠 ⪸ 瓭 侓 瞬 䭦 缩 䪆 䑳 ┱ 傽 续 ꁒ 䧯 駖 㸞 瓭 椚 ꮴ蔸15%⻎ 襴 䔾 㶅 յⷧ㹹 矸 翤 䈽 䐻 ⪸ 瓭 㴼 㵌 䉘 㸉 㝃 俚 德 㵶 䔰 侅姚 潊 騰 ⯀ ն姚 嵌 㝠 鉿 冩 ⢷ ꂞ 缩 ꮴ 䛉 鿛 ⻔ 間 労 傽 续 ㎌ ꄽ 芤 ㎈ 訒 ꓨ ⛓ Ⲏ 䛉 ⺪ 茤 ն耘 德 鯯 ꪍ 鯪 喖 杅 佻䭦 ⪸ 瓭 侓 瞬 䪟 駬 耘 臅 ⥈ 㝮 㝕 ꄽ 芤 낊 ꯟ 璼 ⪸ 瓭 侅 ⪝ 䧶 ꁒGDP溸1%ն德 ⫐ ⽶ 긖 嶯 ⷂ 蔦 鰅 12劓18傽 ⼅ Ⲙ 㸖 ⪸ ꁾ ✑ 관 ⪸ 瓭 岩 瓭 潨 嬠 ❛ 㸞 䳀 ⶬ 蔸74%ն 駩 漳 ⚷ 僻 燛 ┢ 㝕 ⚈ ⲏ 帏 漺 䉗 㐙 甯㴼 յ⮱ ╃ 升 侊 긞 䨼 ⚕ 呵 ⯟ 낊 ꯟ 闌 ն鯯 侓 俚 䰕 兇 獏 ┪ 䌑 瓭 侅 ꂞ 缩3劓 婞 㙨 ꪍ ♨ 僀 䰄 假 銣 鰁⮕ 䪟 姍 ┬ ꁒ ն ╚ 耘 缋 鰅 犀 岩 㴼 ◟7劓 䍐 㐃 橱 ⪿ ꓨ ⼅ ⽶ 㸞 訒 㵄 ⩧ 눢 ⪴ 駮 ն㝕 㴵 岩 ╚ 䈰 ╃ ꓭ 㺲 ┪ 巹 ⺇ 德 ⫐ ⫐ⷳ 䲀 Ⲙ ն 呵 ⯟ 䉗 㐙 ╚ 10䌑 劻 耘 德 德 呵 侅 漩 椚 ┬ 鉿 ┱ 杅 劫 册 类 ⸐ 耘 臅 ⥈ ꮴ 䛉 潸 ⪸10䌑 劻 ╚ 呵德 呵 侅 漩 椚 ┪ 鉿 䕒 漩 ◟ 德 ⫐ 鯯 侓 俚 䰕 ⻔ 㟲溸佻 临 ն㜾 寤 䉗 㐙╚姚 ⩧ ⩽ 耘 ⩧ յ蝠 ꩗ ⩽ 耘 ⩧ ┪ 巹 ⺇姚 嵌 㝠 鉿 冩 ⢷ ꮴ 䛉 鿛 ⻔ 甯 ⣍ 侓 瞬 瞏 ㎌ 筷 䔕 ⿱ ն勶 漩 䉗 㐙 ╚ A艧┪ 巹 䕒 漩 ◟ 德 ⫐1.2┧ ☳ ┿ 绦 寊氲 䈰 瓨 յ駩 漳 ⚷ ꌄ 翤 ꓨ 掾 ⚈ ⲏ 䈷 ㎷ 䉗 㐙 ㎈ 甯 յ嶯 ⷂ 蔦 鰅 㸖 ⪸ 瞏 侓 瞬 ⯈ 㟲 ꓤ 侒 ╚ 耘 缋 鰅 犀 岩 瞏德 ꮪ ⻉ ✑ 뀔 劻 ⻔ 㟲 ն⪾ ✅ 匡 澚10䌑 劻 ╚ 呵 德 呵 侅 漩 椚 ┪ 鉿6.72BP,SHFE酧 绵 ꦨ 巹6.34%,傽 缋225巹4.11%,⮱ ╃ 升 䭰 巹2.76%,广 駩 䧯 䭰 巹2.33%,䚔 气 䭰 俚 巹2.27%,苪 䗅 僻 䭰 俚 巹2.26%,㶡 僓假 Ⲏ 㑗 嶯 㿔 䭰 俚 巹1.71%,┪ 駩 䭰 俚 巹1.67%,吙 册500巹1.46%,蝠 德 㶡 僓100巹1.43%,ꇔ 樴 偅 䈰╃ 䭰 俚 巹1.26%,DCE꧇ 焸 焪 巹1.26%,绯 偅 ꁒ ⩴ 䭰 俚 巹1.02%,姚 ⩧ ⩽ 耘 ⩧ 巹0.99%,LMEꨒ 巹0.37%,姚 ⩧ ⶔSTOXX巹0.30%,LMEꧢ 巹0.18%,岻 德CAC40巹0.15%,蝠 ꩗ ⩽ 耘 ⩧ 巹0.09%,LMEꧣ 巹0.06%,耘 ⩧ ⩽ 瑠 㽺 ☭ 宑 䉕 鳰0.18%,䖎 德DAX鳰0.30%,ⷧ䍳ꧼ 鳰0.36%,COMEX묛 ꓭ 鳰0.59%,耘 ⩧ ⩽ 傽 ⩧ 鳰0.77%,耘 ⩧ 䭰 俚 鳰0.80%,CBOT㸰 뫘 鳰1.28%,CBOT㝕 骀 鳰1.35%,NYMEX WTIⸯ 岓 鳰1.48%,CBOT椝 稌 鳰2.05%,ICE䉘 岓 鳰2.42%,10䌑 劻 耘 德 德 呵 侅 漩 椚 ┬ 鉿4.00BP,NYMEX㝙 撬 官 鳰11.67%ն㎽12025䌑7劓21傽蔸2025䌑7劓25傽⪢槊㝕稝鰑分銩⻓呵⯟⺈Ⲙ⛻╬BP⪼✍鰑分╬%鰑倣匡徏Wind╚㎼ꧼ岉駩⯟煝疵ꯗ-15-10-5051010䌑劻╚⡺德⡺侅漩椚SHFE酧绵ꦨ傽缋225⮱╃升䭰广駩䧯䭰䚔气䭰俚苪䗅僻䭰俚㶡僓假Ⲏ㑗嶯㿔䭰俚┪駩䭰俚吙册500蝠德㶡僓100ꇔ樴偅䈰╃䭰俚DCE꧇焸焪绯偅ꁒ⩴䭰俚（%）（BP） 215%蔸50%⪸ 瓭 䌔 䲀 ꂛ ┱侓 瞬 佻 临 յ䧹 汻 焸 分 ⮃ ⺛ 硅 䱽 䊎 匡 溸 ❵ 缕 뀔 劻 ⺈SENSEX30鳰0.36%,COMEX溮姚⩧⩽耘⩧LMEꨒ姚⩧ⶔSTOXXLMEꧢ岻德CAC40蝠꩗⩽耘⩧LMEꧣ耘⩧⩽瑠㽺☭宑䉕䖎德DAXⷧ䍳SENSEX30COMEX溮ꧼCOMEX묛ꓭ耘⩧⩽傽⩧耘⩧䭰俚CBOT㸰뫘CBOT㝕骀NYMEX WTIⸯ岓CBOT椝稌ICE䉘岓10䌑劻耘德德⡺侅漩椚NYMEX㝙撬官 騟ⲏ䖪꭛騣婞倁劅⻑溸╚㎼ꧼ岉駩⯟艧⚌劔ꮺ⪫⺶⩹鯰㛽僻ն◝յ㝕㴵ガ┞묛ꓭ䉗㐙续 ⽟묛 ꓭ ⚃ 呬괭 衄 侅 鳰ն⽟ ⮵ ㎌ 㐌 罔 箄 䑳 耘 臅 ⥈ ꮴ 䛉 뀔 劻 ⶬ 廛 ꓭ ⚃ ┞ 䍳 痓 熏3400耘 ⩧/漯 ⺶ 갫 ⻑ ㎌ 耘 傽 ꁒ 䧯15%⪸ 瓭 駖 յ 耘 姚 䱹 ꂀ 矸 翤 稝 ⛤ 㴼 ❈ ⪢ 槊 鰅 儅 箄 䑳 㹾 ⲹ 罏 ⾕ 䉗 㐙ꉍ ꯟ 䝠 缦 ꮴ 廛 ➶ ❈ 䫌 鰑 脢 䫔 み 묛 ꓭ 鿛 ⻔ 낊 ꯟ 鰑 分 ⺖ Ⲏ 耘 ⩧ 䭰 俚 闒 䍐 䒧⯸ 䒙 묛 ꓭ ⼕ 䑜 ⲇ ն╚ ꪍ 劻 匡 澚 묛 ꓭ ♇ 㜘 缏 卐 䙎 朙 䉗 괛 間 労 ┬ ⽟ 耘 臅
