波罗的海国家的分配效率、企业动态和生产率：爱沙尼亚共和国

IMF Selected Issues PaperEuropean DepartmentAllocative Efficiency, Firm Dynamics, and Productivity in the BalticsPrepared by Bingjie Hu and Can UgurAuthorized for distribution by Vincenzo GuzzoJuly 2025IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on June 23, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/182.ABSTRACT:Labor productivity growth has decelerated in the Baltic economies during the past two decades,with the downturn accelerating in recent years. This Selected Issues Paper analyzes the roles of allocativeefficiency and firm dynamics in productivity growth. Our results suggest that the lack of allocative efficiency hashindered productivity growth, while the contribution of firm entry and exit has been limited. The findingsunderpin the need for structural reforms to improve allocation of capital and labor, ease the bottlenecks facedby young innovative firms, and facilitate the exit of unviable firms.RECOMMENDED CITATION:Hu, Bingjie and Can Ugur, 2025, “Allocative Efficiency, Firm Dynamics, andProductivity in the Baltics,” IMF Selected Issues Paper(SIP/2025/103), JulyD22; D24; D61; J24; L25Allocative efficiency, labor productivity, productivity growth, businessdynamism, firm dynamics, Baltic economies, competitivenessbhu2@imf.org,cugur@imf.org JEL Classification Numbers:Author’s E-Mail Address: Keywords: Allocative Efficiency,FirmDynamics, and Productivity in theBalticsRepublic of EstoniaPrepared by Bingjie Hu and Can Ugur 1INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDREPUBLIC OF ESTONIASELECTED ISSUESApprovedByEuropean DepartmentPrepared byBingjie Hu,and Can UgurALLOCATIVE EFFICIENCY, FIRM DYNAMICS, AND PRODUCTIVITY IN THE BALTICSA. Introduction and Literature Review __________________________________________________2B. The Labor Productivity Growth Decomposition Exercise _____________________________5C. Conclusion _________________________________________________________________________ 13FIGURES1. TFP Growth Decomposition __________________________________________________________22. Variance of Marginal Revenue Product of Capital (MRPK)____________________________33. Decomposition of Labor Productivity Growth for Estonian Firms_____________________64. Decomposition of Labor Productivity Growth for Latvian Firms ______________________75. Decomposition of Labor Productivity Growth for Lithuanian Firms___________________86. Labor Productivity Distribution of Entrant Firms______________________________________97. Employment Share of Micro Firms and That of Young Firms _______________________ 108. Firm Entry Rates____________________________________________________________________ 11References____________________________________________________________________________ 14CONTENTS 2INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDALLOCATIVE EFFICIENCY, FIRM DYNAMICS, ANDPRODUCTIVITY IN THE BALTICS1Labor productivity growth has decelerated in the Baltic economies during the past two decades, withthe downturn accelerating in recent years. This Selected Issues Paper analyzes the roles of allocativeefficiency and firm dynamics in productivity growth. Our results suggest that the lack of allocativeefficiency has hindered productivity growth, while the contribution of firm entry and exit has beenlimited. The findings underpin the need for structural reforms to improve allocation of capital andlabor, ease the bottlenecks faced by young innovative firms, and facilitate the exit of unviable firms.A.Introduction and Literature Review1.The Baltic economies have faced remarkable challenges in recent years. Russia’s war inUkraine led to supply disruptions and a sharp increase in input costs for firms. Despite somemoderation in inflation after the initial shock, the level of input costs has remained high for theregion and, in conjunction with slow productivity growth, has led to erosion of competitiveness(Armendariz and others 2024). Therefore, improving productivity growth is critical to restorecompetitiveness.2.In the Baltic economies, laborproductivity growth has deceleratedduring the past two decades.In thisSelected Issues Paper, we focus on theroles of allocative efficiency and firmdynamics in labor productivity growth. Wefind that diminishing allocative efficiencyhas contributed to the decline in laborproductivity growth over time, while thenet effect of firm entry and exit has beengenerally limited. One possible reason whythe Baltics and Europe in general lack fast-growing, high-productivity firms is thatcapital and labor may not be allocated inan optimal manner. With frictions in capital,labor, and product markets, resources maybe misallocated, resulting in a largedispersion of productivity across firms (Hsieh and Klenow 2009, IMF 2024). Previous IMF studies haveinvestigated the role of allocative efficiency using firm-level data (Armendariz and others 2024) andfound t