重新审视爱沙尼亚的财政乘数：爱沙尼亚共和国

IMF Selected Issues PaperEuropean DepartmentRevisiting Fiscal Multipliers for EstoniaPrepared by Carlos de Resende and Sadhna NaikAuthorized for distribution by Vincenzo GuzzoJuly 2025IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on June 23, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/182.ABSTRACT:This Selected Issues Paper revisits fiscal multipliers for Estonia with a view to highlighting policytrade-offs and providing growth-friendly options for fiscal consolidation. The pandemic triggered a sharp andpartly permanent increase in government spending. Demand for better quality and broader provision of publicservices has materialized, while climate and ageiong-related spending pressures are set to intensify over timeand geopolitical risks have triggered a sharp increase in defense spending. Despite the 2022–2024 protractedrecession, Estonian authorities have responded to these pressures with two rounds of wide-ranging taxchanges affecting PIT, CIT, VAT, and excises, while spending cuts based on comprehensive spending reviewswere enacted. Do these measures have significant short-term effects on growth? Granular estimates of fiscalmultipliers by type of instrument—on both revenue and spending—can shed light on potential short-term outputcosts and underpin policy advice on specific instruments for fiscal consolidation. Our results indicate thatmultiplier effects in Estonia are not negligible. First-year multiplier estimates tend to fall in a 0.85–1.4 range fora general fiscal shock, 0.6–1.2 for aggregate spending, and about -0.2 for revenue. Granular multiplierssuggest initially larger but less persistent output costs of spending cuts relative to tax increases.RECOMMENDED CITATION:de Resende, Carlos and Naik, Sadhna, 2025, “Revisiting Fiscal Multipliers forEstonia,” IMF Selected Issues Paper(SIP/2025/101), JulyH2; H3; H5Fiscal multipliers, fiscal policy, government spending, governmentrevenues, taxescderesende@imf.org JEL Classification Numbers: Keywords:Author’s E-Mail Address: Revisiting Fiscal Multipliers forEstoniaRepublic of EstoniaPrepared by Carlos de Resende and Sadhna Naik REPUBLIC OF ESTONIASELECTED ISSUESApprovedByEuropean DepartmentPrepared ByCarlos de ResendeandSadhna NaikREVISITING FISCAL MULTIPLIERS FOR ESTONIAA. Introduction: Fiscal Multipliers ________________________________________________________3B. The IMF’s “Bucket Approach” _________________________________________________________5C. Static Keynesian Fiscal Multipliers_____________________________________________________6D. Blanchard-Perotti SVAR Approach ____________________________________________________7E. Estimating the Impact of Fiscal Shocks on Potential GDP ___________________________ 12F. Conclusions _________________________________________________________________________ 13FIGURES1. Advanced Economies: Estimates of Fiscal Multipliers__________________________________42. Fiscal Multipliers in Estonia: Total Revenues __________________________________________93. Fiscal Multipliers in Estonia: Total Spending___________________________________________94. Effects of Temporary and Permanent Fiscal Shocks on Output ______________________ 13TABLES1. IMF's Bucket Approach: Ranges of First-Year “Normal Times” General FiscalMultipliers _______________________________________________________________________________52. IMF’s Bucket Approach Applied to Estonia as of 2025Q1______________________________63. Average Static Fiscal Multipliers (2024-2030)__________________________________________74. Impact and Cumulative Fiscal Multipliers of Selected Fiscal Instruments ____________ 11CONTENTS 2INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDANNEXESI. Shock Identification in the BP (2002) SVAR Approach_______________________________________ 15II. A Structural Vector Error Correction Model for Assessing the Impact of Fiscal Shocks onPotential GDP_________________________________________________________________________________ 16References____________________________________________________________________________________ 18 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDREVISITING FISCAL MULTIPLIERS FOR ESTONIA1This Selected Issues Paper revisits fiscal multipliers for Estonia with a view to highlighting policytrade-offs and providing growth-friendly options for fiscal consolidation. The pandemic triggereda sharp and partly permanent increase in government spending. Demand for better quality andbroader provision of public services has materialized, while climate and ageiong-related spendingpressures are set to intensify over time and geopolitical risks have triggered a sharp increase indefense spending. Despite the 2022–2024 protracted recession, Estonian authorities haveresponded to these pressures with two rounds of wide-ranging tax changes affecting PIT, CIT,VAT, and excises, while spending cuts base