机遇之风：海上风电赋能澳大利亚清洁能源未来

Winds of Opportunity: P owering Australia’s clean energy future with offshore windPurpose of this reportThe Winds of Opportunity report, commissioned by theClean Energy Council, highlights the case for offshorewind in Australia. It explores growth scenarios forAustralian offshore wind and draws lessons from globalleaders to inform potential policy options to accelerateand enable the industry. Winds of Opportunity: P owering Australia’s clean energy future with offshore windContentsList of figuresList of abbreviationsExecutive summaryClean energy at scale is critical for Australia to deliver a prosperous, just, and resilient energy transitionOffshore wind offers energy at scale when the grid needs it the mostOffshore wind will deliver an economic dividend to AustraliaAustralia’s offshore wind industry is ready for breakthroughCoordinated policy action will ensure that offshore wind projects get built with private investmentAustralia is facing challenges in ensuring an orderly energy transitionChallenge 1: Growing demand requires a major expansion of our electricity supplyChallenge 2: A disorderly transition will put our businesses and communities at riskChallenge 3. A diversified clean electricity portfolio is critical to our economic resilience and energy securityAustralian offshore wind has great potentialOffshore wind is a technology of choice for more than 40 countriesWith world-class potential, offshore wind could become a key part of Australia’s electricity mixOffshore wind deployment delivers a windfall to AustraliaOutcome 1: The offshore wind industry can deliver significant economic benefits, high-value jobsand just transition opportunitiesOutcome 2: Offshore wind will enhance our energy resilience by providing a complementarysource of clean energyState-by-state case for offshore wind 3688889101112131315161719202225 4Winds of Opportunity: P owering Australia’s clean energy future with offshore windAppendix A – Country case studies45Disclaimer48 Winds of Opportunity: P owering Australia’s clean energy future with offshore windFigure 1: Forecasted National Electricity Market (NEM) annual electricity consumptionFigure 2: Percentage of transition-exposed jobs in coastal local government areasFigure 3: AER NEM 2008 to 2022 actual electricity and gas spot pricesFigure 4: Global offshore wind industryFigure 5: Proximity of offshore wind areas to key industrial demand centresFigure 6: Offshore wind generation by scenario (GWh)Figure 7: Percentage of transition-exposed mining and manufacturing jobs directly met by offshorewind during operationFigure 8: AEMO integrated system plan 2024 time of day and seasonal advantage ofoffshore wind areas in New South Wales, Victoria and TasmaniaFigure 9: AEMO actual and forecasted daily gas powered generation offtake, NEMFigure 10: Megawatt (MW) capacity unlocked per kilometre of transmission line easement lengthFigure 11: Timeline of key decisions and announcements from governments related to offshore windFigure 12: Barriers to Australian offshore wind developmentFigure 13: Offshore wind targets by countryFigure 14: Policy recommendationsFigure 15: Global offshore wind tender prices over the past decade (by jurisdiction, in 2024 adjusted AUD)Figure 16: International offshore wind case study: United KingdomFigure 17: International offshore wind case study: JapanFigure 18: International offshore wind case study: GermanyFigure 19: International offshore wind case study: United States of AmericaList of figures 512131415161721232426282829313345464647 Winds of Opportunity: P owering Australia’s clean energy future with offshore windList of abbreviationsAbbreviationIn fullAEMOAustralian Energy Market OperatorCfDContract for DifferenceCGEComputable General EquilibriumCIPCopenhagen Infrastructure PartnersCISCapacity Investment SchemeDCCEEWDepartment of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and WaterEEZExclusive Economic ZoneEPBC ActEnvironmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation ActEVElectric vehicleFIDFinal Investment DecisionFITFeed-in-tariffFLOWMISFloating Offshore Wind Manufacturing Investment SchemeFMiAFuture Made in AustraliaFTEFull-time EquivalentGDPGross Domestic ProductGWGigawattsIEAInternational Energy AgencyLCRLocal content requirementsLGALocal Government AreaLTESALong-term Energy Service Agreements Winds of Opportunity: Powering Australia’s clean energy future with offshore windClean energy at scale is critical forAustralia to deliver a prosperous, just,and resilient energy transition.The global energy transition is upon us. Australia hasmade significant progress towards net zero goals byscaling up clean energy deployment over the last decade,with more than 40 per cent of electricity now generatedby renewables. But more needs to be done, and quickly.Australia needs significant amounts of new clean energysources to decarbonise current and future new electricitydemand, while ensuring a just and affordable transitionfor Australian workers, businesses, hou