对 Gcc 劳动力市场政策采取更复杂的方法

04050914Contents A Global ChallengeUnderstandingthe Regional ContextA Path ForwardConclusionThe Government Summit Thought Leadership Series03 A Global ChallengeOver the past few years, youth unemployment has risen to thetop of the global agenda for policy makers. A troubled globaleconomy has led to rising youth unemployment, which in turnhas had economic, political and social implications in manycountries. In the Middle East youth unemployment has been amajor factor contributing to the Arab Spring.Worldwide, young people are three times more likely than theirparents to be out of work. In some European countries, includ-ing Greece and Spain, more than half of young people are unem-ployed. Across the Organization for Economic Co-operation andDevelopment (OECD) countries, more than one in eight of all15- to 24-year-olds are not in employment, education, or train-ing. Around the world, the International Labour Organizationestimates that 75 million young people are unemployed. Includ-ing estimates of underemployed youth would potentially triplethis number. This represents not just a gigantic pool of untappedtalent; it is also a source of social unrest and individual despair.Paradoxically, there is a critical skills shortage at the same time.Across nine countries sampled in a recent McKinsey survey, only43 percent of employers surveyed agreed that they could findenough skilled entry-level workers. This problem is not likely tobe a temporary blip; in fact, it will probably get much worse. TheMcKinsey Global Institute estimates that by 2020 there will be aglobal shortfall of 85 million high- and middle-skilled workers.If young people who have worked hard to graduate from schooland university cannot secure decent jobs and the sense of re-spect that comes with them, society will have to be prepared foroutbreaks of anger or even violence. The evidence is in the pro-tests that have recently occurred in the Arab World, but also inChile, , Greece, Italy, South Africa, Spain, and the United States(to name but a few countries). The gap between the haves andthe have-nots in the OECD is at a 30-year high, with incomeamong the top 10 percent nine times higher than that of thebottom 10 percent.04The Government Summit Thought Leadership Series Over the past few months, we have run a series of surveys across theGCC to better understand youth employment. We wanted to un-derstand both employment and unemployment – who is in work,who is not, and what factors make a difference.The picture that emerges is far more complex than the traditionalbroad brush used to paint the region’s youth. The GCC countriesare very different from each other – the challenges they face aredifferent in both nature and intensity. There is also great variationwithin countries, with discrete segments of youth in each countryfacing different challenges. These results suggest that governmentswill need to adopt more complex and targeted labour policies, andwill need to carefully adapt their interventions to match the differ-ent profiles of young people.For instance, in the UAE, only 9% of UAE nationals responding tothe survey were unemployed and looking for work – an exception-ally low level by regional standards. In this respect, the UAE is in anenviable position, compared to many other countries in the region.But the number masks significant differences. Men are twice as like-ly to be unemployed as women, and those under 25 are three timesas likely to be unemployed as those over the age of 36.Moreover, 61% of UAE nationals in work were employed directlyby the government, a number likely to fall as the population grows.This will require some adjustment. For instance 18% of those work-ing in government said they worked more than 40 hours a week,compared to 54% of those not working in government. Labour poli-cies will need to help employers and employees adjust their expec-tations as a shift towards private sector employment occurs.UnderstandingThe Regional ContextExhibit 1Working Hours are longer in UAE private sector% of respondentsLess than 40 hours46825418Hours worked each weekMore than 40 hoursSource: Employment Survey, November 2012McKinsey & CompanyIn Saudi Arabia, by contrast, our surveys showed twice the levelof unemployment compared to the UAE (18%). This unemployedpopulation is diverse. Highly educated women were a largesegment of unemployed, while men, if they were unemployed,were likely to have a low level of education. Data from thegovernment suggests significant variation in unemploymentlevels across the country.Oman exhibited a similar unemployment profile to Saudi Arabia.Overall unemployment was 16%, but with much higher levelsamong the young (30%) and women (31%). By contrast, Bahrainhad the lowest overall unemployment at just 4%.The Government Summit Thought Leadership Series05 Private SectorPublic Sector Survey based estimates of unemploymentExhibit 2Other factors are of course more similar. The overall demo-graphic profile is similar acr