人工智能：颠覆工作的未来

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: THE THIRD ERA OF AUTOMATIONTHE THIRD ERA OF AUTOMATIONAI’S UNIVERSAL ECONOMIC IMPACTREGION20152024North America$65$3,293Western Europe472,058Eastern Europe7393Middle East10551Africa3148Asia Pacific664,419Latin America5253Total$203$ 11,115Revenue in millionsArtificial Intelligence(AI) is the intelligence exhibited by computers and softwarerepresenting the third era of automation. AI is currently used in in analytics, robotics,machine learning, decision-support, and virtual personal assistance.Smart machines can be our partnersin creative problem solving.FIVE PATHS TO EMPLOYABILITY INTHE ERA OF AUTOMATIONSOURCEHARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW1STEP UPGo for higherintellectual groundGet that MBA orPhD, and constantlychallenge yourself2STEP ASIDECultivate skillsthat machines lack,such as workingwell with othersDevelop multipleintelligences, and gainknowledge throughapprenticeships3STEP INLearn how tomonitor and modifymachines’ workPursue STEMeducation, andcontinuously updatebusiness expertise4STEP NARROWLYFind a specialtythat is such aniche that it isnot economical toautomateMaster a niche withfocus and passionWhile some jobs will be lost to machines, there will beopportunity for knowledge workers.In the third era of automationmachines will make decisions,thus supplanting some jobs fromknowledge workers.ERA ONE19TH CENTURYERA TWO20TH CENTURYMANUALMachine replacesmanual tasksROUTINEMachine replacesclerical tasks SOURCETRATICA5STEP FORWARDLearn to programStay at the cuttingedge of computerscience, artificialintelligence, andanalyticsERA THREE21ST CENTURYSOURCEHARVARD BUSINESS REVIEWDECISION-MAKINGMachine makesdecisions HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW ANALYTIC SERVICESArtificial intelligence (AI) is growing increasingly sophisticated, enablingmachines to perform some cognitive tasks as well as or better than humans,from assessing a loan application to writing stock performance reports.To stay competitive, businesses are under pressure to reorganize to accommo-date the pace of technological change and take advantage of new opportunitiesthis new technology creates. This demands a rethinking of how work will bedone—and who or what will do it.Machines will replace some jobs, but how many? Where—and how—can humansbe aided by intelligent technology? How should businesses think about theirapproach to human capital and investment? What impact will this have onlabor markets and public policy? Governments, for their part, need to gaugeand respond to the impact AI-enabled technology will have on their labor mar-kets and prepare a new generation of workers with the skills and knowledgethey need to be employable in a very changed landscape.In a recent survey by the Pew Research Center, half the respondents said that by2025, robots and other applications of AI will have replaced a significant portionof the workforce, including knowledge workers whose employment consists ofmore mental than manual work and requires decision making. The other halfof respondents predicted a less dramatic change, but they too acknowledgedthat when machines can perform knowledge work, knowledge workers—law-yers, writers, managers, and executives are among their ranks—will be affected.Amazing advances in AI technology have emerged over the past few years—cars that drive themselves, useful humanoid robots, speech recognition andsynthesis systems, 3-D printers, and aJeopardy!-champion computer.AI-enhanced computers now write about sports competitions and composestock portfolio reports, even performing legal e-discovery work as they scanelectronic documents for their relevance to a particular case.ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE:DISRUPTING THE FUTUREOF WORK To stay competitive,businesses are underpressure to reorganizeto accommodate thepace of technologicalchange and takeadvantage of newopportunities artificialintelligence creates. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: DISRUPTING THE FUTURE OF WORKsay Tom Davenport, President’s Distinguished Professorat Babson College, and Julia Kirby in their article “BeyondAutomation” inHarvard Business Review. But that doesn’tmean that companies and policymakers should think of thefuture job market as the human worker versus machines,they say.COMPLEMENTARITIES ALLOWSUPERIOR RESULTSRather than ask what work will be performed better bymachines or by machines instead of people, Davenportand Kirby suggest there is another framework for thefuture. “What new feats might people achieve if theyhad better-thinking machines to assist them? Instead ofseeing work as a zero-sum game with machines taking anever greater share, we might see growing possibilities foremployment,” they say.Look beyond automation to see the possibilities of augmen-tation. Automation replaces human thought and labor; aug-mentation signals that machines can enhance them. Thatis to say, AI and human intelligence can be complementary.“The complexity of knowledge and its volume are toomuch for humans to keep up with,” Davenport says. “Forinstance, there are more than 4