了解新冠肺炎对城市流动性趋势的影响

The World Government Summit is a global platform dedicated toshaping the future of governments worldwide. Each year, the Summitsets the agenda for the next generation of governments with a focuson how they can harness innovation and technology to solve universalchallenges facing humanity.The World Government Summit is a knowledge exchange center at theintersection of government, futurism, technology, and innovation. Itfunctions as a thought leadership platform and networking hub forpolicymakers, experts and pioneers in human development.The Summit is a gateway to the future as it functions as the stage foranalysis of future trends, concerns, and opportunities facing humanity.It is also an arena to showcase innovations, best practices, and smartsolutions to inspire creativity in tackling these future challenges.AnsweringTomorrow’sQuestionsToday2 Table of ContentsIntroductionMajor Uncertainties in Mobility Trends Post COVID-191. Micro & Mini Mobility2. Autonomous, Connected, Electric and Shared Vehicles (ACES)3. Low-touch Economy4. Virtual Presence5. Sustainable LivingConclusionTopicsElectrical Vehicles (EVs)Autonomous Vehicles (AVs)Ride-hailing / Car-sharing & Mobility as a Service (MaaS) 0608101424283236151821 Introduction6 The COVID-19 pandemic is having profound economic,social and political impacts across the globe. Itseffects are spreading throughout the entire transportsector, and urban mobility is no exception. Publictransport agencies, operators and other companiesworking in the mobility space are having to contendwith the fact that commuting and travel patterns maynot recover to their pre-COVID-19 levels for severalyears. In addition, new mobility patterns will emerge,based on changing consumer behaviors (i.e. trustissues, greener mindset), economic constraints (i.e.less disposable income) and new policy priorities (i.e.sustainable policies, budget deficits, health policies,etc). Therefore, the organizational strategies of theseagencies and companies will need to be realigned tothe new realities, long term investment programs mayneed to be re-prioritized, and pricing schemes, tariffmechanisms and subsidies will have to be revisited.As such, this white paper aims to assess the short tomedium term implications of COVID-19 on the urbanmobility trends. MobilityMobilityMobilityAllUrbanismSectorMethodologyThis white paper has been constructed using differentmethods. First, we conducted an extensive trendscanning exercise, identifying key trends that weaggregated into five mega trends, and deemed mostrelevant to the future of mobility. For each megatrend, we scanned the most relevant signals of whatis happening worldwide. In parallel we connected MajorUncertainties inMobility TrendsPost COVID-19There are multiple uncertainties that can shape allthe future mobility trends, with the two most relevantones being the degree of economic recovery andthe containment of COVID-19. Multiple scenarioscan be derived from this, ranging from a deep-steep (L-shaped economic growth) to an optimistic(V-shaped) recovery. Within this range, there are allmanner of possibilities, as key variables are widelyunknown, including virus containment, ripple andsystemic effects of economic shutdowns across theworld, impact of economic stimuli, among others.In addition, major uncertainties could have a highlydisruptive impact on mobility, such as the shape oftourism recovery, whether or not populations willadapt social distancing protocols (or would theyfade quickly), and how companies and organizationsassimilate to a more remote working style and relax(or modify for the long term) the need to work fromoffices.Regardless of what scenario may take shape, we willbe entering the ‘new normal’ phase post COVID-19,where not only economic, but also social behaviors willdrastically change. This ‘new normal’ will be comprisedof changes in social dynamics (i.e. social distancing,restricted public events/entertainment, working fromhome), values (i.e. support to local businesses, valueadded to consumers/users, impact on wellbeing),consumer behavior (i.e. different expenditurepriorities, less disposable income, online over brickand mortar) and international travel patterns (i.e.quarantine while traveling inside/outside countries),among others. Micro & Mini MobilityAutonomous,Connected, Electricand SharedVehicles (ACES)Low-touchEconomyVirtual PresenceSustainable LivingMega Trend Rise of CyclingE-scooters/Mopeds/Nano-vehiclesAutonomous & Connected VehiclesElectric VehiclesCar/ride SharingIntegrated MaasSafety-based OperationsAdvanced Operational TechnologiesRemote WorkVirtual RealityCar-free CitiesDeglobalizationDe-urbanizationTrendwith twelve worldwide renowned experts in differentmobility-related fields for a series of in-depthinterviews. Based on these factors, we were able toprovide indicators on whether we believe the megatrends will accelerate or decelerate, and what will bethe impacts for cities and for public transportation. 1.Micro &