重建经济。.新常态下的运营

The World Government Summit is a global platform dedicated toshaping the future of governments worldwide. Each year, the Summitsets the agenda for the next generation of governments with a focuson how they can harness innovation and technology to solve universalchallenges facing humanity.The World Government Summit is a knowledge exchange center at theintersection of government, futurism, technology, and innovation. Itfunctions as a thought leadership platform and networking hub forpolicymakers, experts and pioneers in human development.The Summit is a gateway to the future as it functions as the stage foranalysis of future trends, concerns, and opportunities facing humanity.It is also an arena to showcase innovations, best practice, and smartsolutions to inspire creativity to tackle these future challenges.AnsweringTomorrow’sQuestionsToday2 Executive SummaryIntroduction: The Impact of COVID-19on Economies Around the WorldChallenges to Global TradeGovernments’ Fiscal and Monetary Policy ResponseRealigning Post-pandemic Priorities for BusinessesThe Crucial Role of DFIs in Post-COVID RecoveryA.Provide Targeted Financing to Stimulate SustainableEconomic RecoveryB.Revamp DFI CapabilitiesC.Repurpose DFI LandscapeConclusionAuthorsAbout KearneyTable of ContentsTopics 060812162024282932363738 Executive SummaryThe COVID-19 pandemic has exacted a heavytoll on the finances of countries aroundthe world, forcing governments to deliverunprecedented fiscal support packagesfor businesses. But stimulus measureshave failed to resurrect flagging demandand return economic activity to pre-COVIDlevels—and they cannot be extendedindefinitely.With emerging market governments nowfacing substantial national budget deficits,the pressure is on to move beyond shoringup businesses for short-term survival topositioning them for sustainable success inthe post-COVID economic landscape.In this bid to financially future-proofthemselves, governments are increasinglyexploring the potential of developmentfinance institutions (DFIs) to help rebuildailing economies by delivering targetedstimulus packages in a systematic, fiscallyresponsible, and sustainable manner.DFIs are built on a financial model that isdesigned both to generate returns and toadvance broader development objectives.This should—in theory—make them wellplaced to take more risks than traditionalcommercial banks and to support businessesand projects that these banks would typicallyavoid, particularly in today’s low-yield, low-return market environment.But one significant obstacle stands in theway: since they were first set up in responseto crises such as the post-war reconstructionefforts, DFIs have been significantlyweakened by a protracted period of neglect.This has left them effectively operating withone hand tied behind their backs.Today, the only way to ensure that DFIs havethe financial firepower to deliver on theirmission is to revitalize, recapitalize, andreconnect them to their ecosystem. In thispaper, we outline the compelling case forgovernments to use their national, regional,and multilateral DFIs to deliver the liquidity-injection programs needed to boost flaggingindustries, invest in vital infrastructure, andlead their countries out of economic penury.We also set out a seven-point roadmap tohelp policymakers and leaders of DFIs to gearup for the near- and medium-term future aseconomies take their first steps into the new,post-pandemic economic reality.6 Introduction:The Impact ofCOVID-19 onEconomiesAround theWorld8 UAE’s 2020 real GDP annual growth rate estimate of -6.6% (IMF) has been reflected across all four quarters, pending actual figuresKSAQ4 2020EstimatesQ3 20202021E2022EFor India, the economic fallout of the pandemic hasbeen substantial and broad-based. GDP contractedsharply in Q2 2020 (-24.1 percent year-on-year) dueto the unprecedented lockdowns introduced to controlthe spread of COVID-19 (see figure 1). The contractionmoderated to -7.0 percent year-on-year in Q3 2020.On January 7, the country’s National Statistical Officereleased its first estimate, forecasting GDP growth of-7.7 percent for FY 2020–2021.And in the Middle East, the economy is not only beingaffected by COVID-19, but also by the sharp decline inoil prices in 2020. Millions of workers have also beenput on government-supported job retention schemesas some sectors of the economy—such as tourism andhospitality—have ground to a near standstill. 1Sources: OECD, IMF; Kearney analysisFigure 1The economic fallout of the pandemic has been substantialYEAR-OVER-YEAR REAL GDP GROWTH RATES (SINCE Q)USUKGermanyIndiaChinaReal GDP growth rate (%)-25-20-15-10-5051015Q1 2020Q4 2019Q2 2020-Governments around the world are facing a dualchallenge: keeping a pandemic under control while alsoproviding the fiscal life support needed to prop up theirailing economies. Several estimates suggest that theglobal economy is largely set to remain sluggish, withGDP not returning to Q4 2019 levels until 2022–2023.In th