2Q25预告：广告和移动游戏业务提供有力支持

FY24AFY25EFY26EFY27E26,83230,15032,80834,81819.112.48.832.736.838.5(22.1)2,124.13,144.23,985.3nana48.0(5.32)505.64748.46948.692.82.52.3 Target PriceUS$28.80(Previous TPUS$26.50)Up/Downside15.0%Current PriceUS$25.05China InternetSaiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hkWentao LU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hkYe TAO, CFAfranktao@cmbi.com.hkJoanna Ma(852) 3761 8838joannama@cmbi.com.hkStock DataMkt Cap (US$ mn)10,523.2Avg 3 mths t/o (US$ mn)52w High/Low (US$)29.66/12.96Total Issued Shares (mn)Source:FactSetShareholding StructureRui ChenSource: Company dataShare PerformanceAbsoluteRelative21.0%41.8%48.3%Source: FactSet12-mth Price PerformanceSource:FactSet 26.1420.113.7%Tencent9.3%1-mth14.6%3-mth15.8%6-mth40.8% 6.140.226.82.2 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGEBusiness forecasts updateand valuationFigure1:Bili:forecast revisionCurrentRMBmnFY25EFY26EFY27EFY25ERevenue30,15032,80834,81830,584Grossprofit11,09212,61713,99611,272Adj.netprofit2,1243,1443,9852,244Adj.EPS (RMB)5.17.59.55.3Grossmargin36.8%38.5%40.2%36.9%Adjusted net margin7.0%9.6%11.4%7.3%Source: CMBIGM estimatesFigure2: CMBIGM estimates vs consensusCMBIGMRMBmnFY25EFY26EFY27EFY25ERevenue30,15032,80834,81830,457Grossprofit11,09212,61713,99611,234Adj.netprofit2,1243,1443,9852,166Adj.EPS (RMB)5.17.59.55.1Grossmargin36.8%38.5%40.2%36.9%Adjusted net margin7.0%9.6%11.4%7.1%Source: Bloomberg, CMBIGM estimatesSOTP ValuationBased on the SOTP valuation, our target price for Bili is US$28.8per ADS, including:1) US$14.5for the advertising business (50% of the total valuation),based on an18x2025E PE. Thetarget PE multiple is at apremiumto the industry average (15x 2025E PE),reflecting Bili’s strong ad monetization potential and revenue growth outlook.2) US$6.4for the VAS business (22% of the total valuation), based on a1.6x 2025E PS.The target PS multiple ison par withthe average PS of other video platforms.3) US$7.7for mobile games (27% of the total valuation), based on an 18x 2025E PE. Thetarget PEmultiple is at a discount to the industry average (23x 2025E PE), as Bili has yetto establish a successful track record in in-house games development.4) US$0.2for IP derivatives and others (1% of the total valuation), based on a0.4x 2025EPS. Thetarget PS multiple is on par with the average PS of the other e-commerce platforms.Figure3: Bili: SOTP Valuation(RMBmn)2025E revenueNet margin (%)VAS (Livestreaming + Membership)12,026Advertising9,75725%Mobile games6,48820%IP derivatives and others1,878Total valuation (RMBmn)Number of ADS (mn)Valuation per ADS (US$)Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates Target PS (x)Target PE (x)1.60.4 1818 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGEDisclosures& DisclaimersAnalyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities orissuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and FuturesCommission) (1) have dealtin or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report.CMBIGM RatingsBUY: Stock with potential return of over15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGMOUTPERFORM:Industry expected tooutperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsMARKET-PERFORM:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsUNDERPERFORM:Industry expected to underperformthe relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsCMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimitedAddress: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”)is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank)Important DisclosuresThere are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable for the purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This repor