2025年6月奢侈品市场最新动态

June 2025 Some people think luxuryis the opposite of poverty.It is not. It is the oppositeof vulgarity.Coco Chanel2 0102Overall MarketContextEvolving ConsumerDemands in LuxuryTable of Contents 04Appendix 03M&A Market andRelevant ValuationConsiderations Overall Market Context Up by+4%, the globalluxury goods sector hasgrown faster than theeconomy (2019–2024)Expected to grow atapproximately4%,reaching more than€526billion in 2029Gen Zcould account fornearly athird of luxurypurchasesby 2030of industry growth wasdriven by price increasesrather than volume increasesLuxury industryeconomicprofitnearly tripledbetween 2019 and 2024Almost40%fromU.S. and China 33%6%Global Luxury Market Snapshot5Note: (1) 2019–2024 CAGR.Sources: Statista Luxury Goods report, “The state of luxury” McKinsey report.Luxury Cosmetics& FragrancesMarketSize5-yr CAGR€63.1B+2.6%Luxury EyewearMarketSize5-yr CAGR€27.4B+2.1%Luxury Watches& JewelleryMarketSize5-yr CAGR€144.6B+4.6% 2.6x~80% Long-Term Sector Performance Snapshot66Sector has a historical track record of strongresilience and growthGlobal Luxury Market Size (in €B)10311694103123139145152159167175100111971011191311341371411461504350414757646669737679495546506159636568707323251921252727282829302019202020212022202320242025E 2026E 2027E 2028E4203183572963233852018435451469488508+5.4% CAGR+3.9% CAGRLuxury Watches & JewelleryLuxury FashionLuxury Leather GoodsLuxury Cosmetics & FragrancesLuxury EyewearSource: Statista Luxury Goods report. •After a slowdown in2020 and 2021 due toCOVID-19, all segmentsrecovered to pre-COVID-19levels in 2022•Post-COVID-19,the luxurymarket continued to thrive,despite broader marketuncertainty•Strong growth from leathergoods as well asjewelleryand watches as consumersprioritisedinvestmentcategories Market Spotlight—U.S. and China77The U.S. and China are still the world’s largest markets despite recent challenges•While the U.S. luxury goods market has beendeceleratingand not the main driver of growthinthe past few years, it still represents thelargest marketfor luxury goods globally•The strong U.S. demand during COVID-19 was mainlydriven byrising asset prices(stock market, housingmarket, crypto, etc.) andhigher savings rates(fuelledby COVID-19 restrictions)•Going forward,higher consumer confidence levelsshould lead to single-digit growth in the U.S.Saks Fifth Avenue Beverly Hills opened a new location on 8 February 2024Sources: Morgan Stanley Research, selected press. Structural drivers behind Chinese luxury market•Now the world’s second-largest market for luxury goods,China drove luxury growth for much of the past decade•While the ultra-wealthy segment remains resilient, middle-class consumers have been the real force behind the growth•Recently, the Chinese luxury market has faced amorechallenging environment due to broader economicturbulenceConsumers (especially middle-class) focusingonless frequent, buthigher-end purchasesCustomers increasingly shifting their attentiontowards“home-grown” local companiesOverallgrowing wealthandexpandingmiddle classSocialstratificationfuels status-consciousbuyers’ desire for status symbolsThe second-handmarketisbecomingrelevant;thus,resalevaluesare increasinglyimportant Despite recent economic turbulence, itis anticipated that Chinese luxurymarket growth will outpace U.S. marketgrowth between now and 2028 Market Spotlight—Middle East and India8The Middle East and India are emerging as dominantmarkets in the global luxury landscapeSources: BCG Fashion & Luxury Market report, selected press.Ranked 20th on the World’sWealthiest Cities Report 2023(and home to more than 68,000millionaires)According to Firstpost, the numberof millionaires in India is projectedto surge by 69% by 2027Middle EastIndiaA €12-billion market is expected to continueto grow at +11% p.a.Approximately x3 expected growthbetween 2021 and 2031, driven by variousfactorsIncreased demand from local younggenerationsInbound tourism growth boosted by state-sponsored investmentHuge investment into the retail environmentin the region (primarily shopping malls)Rise of wealthy population, one of thefastest growingSimplified taxation and logisticsLuxury real estate on the riseIncreasing interest and investments frominternational brands On 7 February 2023, Dubai Design District and theArab Fashion Council announced the launch of theofficial fashion week, Dubai Fashion Week, formerlyknown as Arab Fashion WeekDubai Mall is the world’s largest destination for shopping,entertainment, and leisure, located next to the world’stallest building, the Burj KhalifaIndia’s new luxury mall Luxury Goods Global Majors Snapshot99Market cap relative to the other playersNotes: Flag indicates headquarters; (1) Share price development calculated for each panel as the market cap-weighted average performance of the individual stock constituentsSource: Statista Luxury Goods report, CapIQWe believe the sector has 15 main, global listed players with a combined portfolio of over 150 brands