AI优化服务器释放增量，成为新增长点

相关报告07-10 020406080100120140160 2/31证券研究报告1055.16/1101.56/1148.89亿美元，同比增长10.4%/4.4%/4.3%；归母净利润为50.43/55.63/57.52亿美元，同比增长9.8%/10.3%/3.4%，对应PE为17.67x/16.01x/15.49x，首次覆盖给予“增持”评级。⚫风险提示AI优化服务器出货量不及预期风险，AI PC出货量不及预期风险，技术研发不及预期风险，关税政策变动风险，市场竞争风险[Table_Profit]重要财务指标单位:百万美元主要财务指标FY2025AFY2026EFY2027EFY2028E营业收入95,567105,516110,156114,889收入同比（%）8.08%10.41%4.40%4.30%归母净利润4,5925,0435,5635,752归母净利润同比（%）43.01%9.83%10.31%3.38%Non-GAAP净利润5,8666,5227,0307,185每股收益（美元）6.387.358.268.88市盈率（P/E）15.1017.6716.0115.49资料来源：公司财报，华安证券研究所 ⚫ 3/31正文目录1戴尔科技公司介绍........................................................................................................................................................51.1DELL发展历程......................................................................................................................................................51.2戴尔科技AI布局及产品矩阵.................................................................................................................................61.3核心管理团队经验丰富..........................................................................................................................................71.4营业收入及利润恢复增长，ISG成为新增长点......................................................................................................81.4.1收入端、利润端2025恢复增长，预计未来保持稳定上升.................................................................................81.4.2ISG收入占比逐渐增大，AI服务器驱动ISG增长..............................................................................................91.4.3研发费用与销售&管理费用趋于稳定，毛利率与净利率回稳............................................................................101.4.4高自由现金流加速AI及ISG基础设施领域投资..............................................................................................112生成式AI赋能PC、服务器业务...............................................................................................................................122.1数据转化业务价值，IT技术支出不断增加..........................................................................................................122.2生成式人工智能（GENAI）驱动行业数智化转型................................................................................................133 ISG基础设施解决方案集团.......................................................................................................................................173.1服务器及网络设备收入及占比持续上升...............................................................................................................173.2ISG最新产品矩阵................................................................................................................................................183.3AI服务器成为ISG业务核心增量........................................................................................................................204 CSG客户解决方案集团.............................................................................................................................................224.1商业业务收入及占比CSG增加...........................................................................................................................224.2CSG最新产品矩阵..............................................................................................................................................234.3商用PC、AIPC北美市场地位领先....................................................................................................................255盈利预测与估值.........................................................................................................................................................285.1驱动因素假设.......................................................................................................................................................285.2相对估值..............................................................................................................................................................29风险提示：.....................................................................................................................................................................29财务报表与盈利预测......................................................................................................................................................30 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明证券研究报告 4/31图表目录图表1DELL发展历程....................................................................................................................................................5图表2戴尔科技AI布局及产品解决方案........................................................................................................................6图表3戴尔科技主要产品及服务....................................................................................................................................7图表4戴尔科技管理层履历介绍....................................................................................................................................7图表5戴尔科技FY2015-FY2026Q1营业收入及同比增长情况.....................................................................................9图表6戴尔科技FY2019-FY2026Q1NON-GAAP净利润及同比增长情况...................................................................