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Christoph Basten, Ragnar Juelsrud Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)This paper contains research conducted within the network “Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing WorldNetwork” (ChaMP). It consists of economists from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the national central banks (NCBs) of theEuropean System of Central Banks (ESCB).ChaMP is coordinated by a team chaired by Philipp Hartmann (ECB), and consisting of Diana Bonfim (Banco de Portugal), MargheritaBottero (Banca d’Italia), Emmanuel Dhyne (Nationale Bank van België/Banque Nationale de Belgique) and Maria T. Valderrama(Oesterreichische Nationalbank), who are supported by Melina Papoutsi and Gonzalo Paz-Pardo (both ECB), 7 central bank advisersand 8 academic consultants.ChaMP seeks to revisit our knowledge of monetary transmission channels in the euro area in the context of unprecedented shocks,multiple ongoing structural changes and the extension of the monetary policy toolkit over the last decade and a half as well as the recentsteep inflation wave and its reversal. More information is provided on its website.ECB Working Paper Series No 3072 1 Weshow theoretically how the anticipated cross-selling of loansincentivizesbanks to offer lower deposit spreads to attract and retaindepositors, more when policy rates are lower and future cross-selling is morevaluable. Utilizing comprehensive data on every Norwegian bank householdrelationship, we then establish empirically how banks facing identical loandemand respond to policy rate cuts with greater deposit spread reductions forclients with higher cross-selling potential, thereby raising both deposit and loangrowth. Cross-selling constitutes a complementary, novel channel for monetarypolicy transmission through banks, elucidates loss-making deposit pricing inlow-rate periods, and connectsbanks’ deposit and loan franchises.Keywords:monetary policy transmission,deposits channel of monetarypolicy, cross-selling, multi-product banking, bank franchiseJEL Classification:D14, D43,E52,G21, G51ECB Working Paper Series No 3072 Non-Technical SummaryTo achieve their mandate ofconsumer price stability,central banks typically respond toinflation above (below) their target by raising (reducing) monetary policy ratesand so theinterest rates at which banks canborrow from or lend toother banksorthe central bank. To theextent to which this change in interbank rates is then passed through to the deposit and loanrates and volumes between banks and their clients, it may affect consumption and investmentin the real economy and thereby consumer prices.More specifically, when central banks raise policy rates as in the post-pandemic years,bankstypically pass throughthesechanges only partiallyand so manage to expand thedeposit spreadbetween policyand deposit rates, the margin banks earn on their deposits.This phenomenon,observed across currency areas includingthe euro areaandthe United States, hasso farbeenexplained by the so-calleddeposits channel:mortgage market concentrationlimitsthe priceelasticity of clients’ supply of deposits totheir bank and so allows banks to raise the depositspread when policy rates increase. As a response to this price increase, the average depositorreplacesnot all but some deposits with other financial assets, leaving the bank with lessrefinancing and thereby reducing bank lending and so consumer price growth.While this existing paradigm can explain a lot of the link between policy rate changes, depositrate changes and deposit and loan volumes, itcannotexplain why banks often pay deposit ratesabovepolicy rates—resulting innegative deposit spreads—when interest rates are low. It alsodoes not fully capturethe multi-product nature of banking whereby banks may attract a clientfor one product and then sell other banking products to that client.This paper proposes a new explanation. We show that banks may be willing to pay more fordeposits than standard models predict because deposits are a gateway to future businessincluding both future deposits and other products. Specifically,manybankscananticipate thatdepositors will also take up other financial products—most importantly,mortgages. Thepromise of future earnings from suchcross-sellingmakes deposit relationships more valuable,especially when interest rates are low and future profits are worth more in today's terms. As aresult, banks reduce deposit spreads more strongly for customers with high cross-sellingpotential when policy ratesare cut. ECB Working Paper Series No 30723 Our empirical analysis confirms that banks offer more favourable deposit rates toclientswhoare more likely to take out loans in the future, and that this behaviour becomes morepronounced when policy rates fall. This boosts both deposit and loan growth, providing a newand complementary channel through which monetary policy influences the economy.Our analysis uses tax data that include for every single bank household rel