近期经济发展

July10,2025ResearchDepartment&Summaryandglobaleconomicconditions,aswellasMinjiGoUiJungKim+82-2-759-4166(mjgo@bok.or.kr)+82-2-759-4172(kej2812@bok.or.kr) RecentEconomicDevelopmentsJuly2025Ⅰ.Ⅰ.Ⅰ.GlobalGlobalGlobalEconomicEconomicEconomicConditionsConditionsConditions................................111Ⅱ.Ⅱ.Ⅱ.DevelopmentsinKorea’sEconomyDevelopmentsinKorea’sEconomyDevelopmentsinKorea’sEconomy........................222<Appendix>KeyEconomicIndicators -1-The slowdown in Korea’s economic growth has eased to some extent,asconsumptionimproved and exports increased,despite the continued decline inconstructioninvestment.CPIinflationisexpectedtohoveraround2%reflectingthestabilizationofglobaloilpricesandthegovernment’spricemeasures.The forecast path is subject to considerable external uncertainty,particularlyregardingthefuturedevelopmentsintradenegotiations.Ⅰ.Ⅰ.Ⅰ.GlobalGlobalGlobalEconomicEconomicEconomicConditionsConditionsConditions▢Theglobaleconomyisexpectedtoremainbroadlyconsistentwiththepreviousoutlook,as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East,though had intensified,quicklysubsided.§Inthe United States,growth is expected to slow as the impact of recent tariffincreasesbeginstotakehold.§Intheeuroarea,growthislikelytoremainmodestdespiteaccommodativemonetarypolicy,duetothedeterioratingtradeenvironment.§InChina,whiletheeconomycontinuestofaceheadwindsfromU.S.tariffs,domesticstimulusmeasures,such as the consumer goods trade-in program,are expected toprovideupsidesupporttogrowth.<Figure1>GlobalPMI<Figure2>U.S.ImportsandMajorCountries’ExportstotheU.S.Sources:JPM,S&PGlobal.Sources:Fed,Eurostat,General AdministrationofCustomsofthePeople's RepublicofChina. -2-Ⅱ.Ⅱ.Ⅱ.DevelopmentsinKorea’sEconomyDevelopmentsinKorea’sEconomyDevelopmentsinKorea’sEconomy▢RegardingKorea’seconomy,despitesluggishconsumptionhas improved,supported by strong consumer sentiment and thesupplementarybudget,whileexportshavealsoperformedbetterthanexpected.Thegrowth outlook is expected to be heavily influenced by the developmentsoftariffnegotiationsbetweentheUnitedStatesandothercountries.In the second quarter,overall growth seems to have been broadly in line withtheprevious outlook,as consumption rebounded on the back of rapidlyimprovingeconomic sentiment since May,and as exports increased,drivenprimarilybysemiconductors,althoughconstructioninvestmentremainedweak.§Fromthe third quarter onward,domestic demand is expected to continue itsrecovery,supported by the effects of the supplementary budget and previousinterestrate cuts,while exports are projected to slow as the impact of U.S.tariffsbecomes more pronounced.Exports will be largely affected by thedevelopmentsoftradenegotiations.<Figure3>ConsumerSentimentandCardSpending<Figure4>ContributiontoExportsbyItemNote:1)Realterms;dottedlinesrepresent quarterlyaveragesSource:BankofKorea.Source:Korea CustomsService. constructioninvestment,onaCustomsClearanceBasis -3-▢CPI inflationis expected to hover around 2%reflecting the stabilization of globaloilpricesandthegovernment’spricemeasures.Inthesecondquarter,CPI inflationwasconsistentwithpreviousoutlook.Whiletheincreaseinprocessedfoodprices accelerateddue to price hikesinmajorfood andbeverageproducts,CPI inflation2.2%inJunefluctuatednear the target level,supportedbycontinuedstabilityinpetroleumandagriculturalproductprices.Coreinflation2.0%inJuneremainedaround2%.§Goingforward,CPIinflationisprojectedtostayslightlybelowthetargetlevelof2%forthetimebeing,withunderlyinginflationindicatorsremainingstable.§Theinflation outlook remains subject to key risks,including domestic and globaleconomicconditions,aswellasmovementsinexchangerateandglobaloilprices.<Figure5>HeadlineandCoreCPIInflation<Figure6>ContributiontoHeadlineCPIInflationSource:Statistics Korea.Note:1)Excludingcore itemsSources:Statistics Korea,BankofKorea. -4-▢The current account surplus for this year is expected to exceed the previousoutlookof$82billion.In the second quarter,the current account surplus appears to have significantlyexceededthepreviousoutlook,drivenbystrongsemiconductorexports,whichweresupportedby robust AI-related investment and front-loaded demand in anticipationofpotentialitem-specifictariffs.§However,in the second half of the year,the surplus is projected to narrowcomparedtothefirsthalf,astheimpactofU.S.tariffpoliciesbeginstomaterialize.▢The increase in the number of employed persons is expected to exceed thepreviousoutlookof120,000.Recently,employment245,000inMaycontinuedtoincrease,mainlyinpublicadministrationand health&welfare,with the most of gains driven by publicsectorhiring.By contrast,employment in the private sector,such as constructionandmanufacturing,continuedtodecline.§Goingforward,employment in construction and manufacturing is likely to remainweakdue to the sluggish construction sector and the impact of U.S.tariff policies.Nonetheless,employment in the service sector is expected to surpass previousoutlook,supportedbytheexpansionofpublicsectoremployment,thesupplementarybudget,