2025年第二季度美国私募股权市场分析报告

Q2 2025 US PE BREAKDOWNContentsExecutive summary:Are we so back?DealsDeal valuation metricsDeal financing metricsDeals by size, backing type, and sectorSpotlight: Launch Report:Transportation & LogisticsExitsFundraisingPerformance 3512141516182529 PitchBook Data, Inc.Nizar TarhuniExecutive Vice President of Researchand Market IntelligenceMarina LukatskyGlobal Head of Research, Credit andUS Private EquityInstitutional Research GroupAnalysisGarrett HindsSenior Research Analyst, Private Equitygarrett.hinds@pitchbook.comJinny ChoiSenior Research Analyst, Private Equityjinny.choi@pitchbook.comKyle WaltersResearch Analyst, Private Equitykyle.walters@pitchbook.comDataCharlie FarberManager, Data Analysispbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.comPublishingReport designed byJenna O’Malley, Josie Doan,andAdriana HansenPublished on July 11, 2025Clickherefor PitchBook’s report methodologies. Q2 2025 US PE BREAKDOWNEXECUTIVE SUMMARYAre we so back?At the halfway mark of2025, the exuberance that greetedthe new year has cooled, yet a risk-on appetite is slowly re-emerging. Tariff concerns are shifting to the rear-view mirror,and animal spirits are being revived. Many are expectingpotential tariff-driven inflation to be a one-off and still expectthe Federal Reserve (the Fed) to cut rates this year. Publicmarkets are back to a risk-on posture, and private-marketparticipants closed big deals in the quarter amid theuncertainty. Still, beneath the surface, we see mountingstructural risks in credit quality that warrant close attention.In a best-case scenario, PE would benefit from a finelybalanced environment with clear trade policy, stablecommodity and energy costs, subdued inflation, and declininginterest rates. This would enable GPs to exit older holdingsat favorable valuations. However, this outcome requiresan alignment of variables that feels aspirational ratherthan probable.Consumer loan delinquency rates0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%MarSepMarSepMar20162015 SepMar20182017 SepMarSep A more likely trajectory involves moderate tariff-driveninflation, a deceleration in growth, and persistentuncertainty—resulting in a “sideways” market. This wouldbring lower levels of deal activity and reduced investmentexits. While not catastrophic, it would certainly fall short ofinitial expectations investors held at the start of the year.The downside case envisions a recession triggered byfederal austerity, diminished investment confidence, andproduction constraints due to tariff-disrupted inputs. Undersuch conditions, asset price dislocations could presentopportunistic buying windows for PE firms flush with drypowder. However, exit activity would be severely constrained.LPs are increasingly eager for distributions, and thoseexits—delayed though they may be—will eventually need tomaterialize, even if they come in the form of dividend recapsor continuation funds. Regardless of the path forward, PE ispositioned to adapt. Q2 2025 US PE BREAKDOWNBusiness loan delinquency rates0.5%0.7%0.9%1.1%1.3%1.5%1.7%MarSepMarSepMar20162015Our largest concern is deteriorating credit quality in bothbusiness loans and consumer loans. Banks will need tostart provisioning for loan losses with consumer creditdelinquency rates at decade highs, stifling earnings powerand credit expansion capacity. And now student loandefaults are front and center. We estimate that there wasa shadow stimulus of $150 billion to $160 billion annuallybetween March 2020, when student loan repayments werepaused, and October 2023, when repayments started. TheDepartment of Education holds wage-garnishment authority,and with over 25% of borrowers now delinquent, forcedcollections appear inevitable.1It could be a challenging yearfor consumer discretionary companies and subprime lenderswith consumer exposure. We note that approximately 19% ofPE-backed companies held between five to 12 years are in theconsumer sector.1: “U.S. Department of Education To Begin Federal Student Loan Collections, Other Actions To Help Borrowers Get Back Into Repayment,” US Department of Education, April12, 2025. Q2 2025 US PE BREAKDOWNDealsPE deal activity$548.2$463.2$590.24,6434,7815,315201520162017OverviewDeal flow cooled quarter-on-quarter but still outpaced lastyear. Q22025 closed with 2,158 announced and estimatedtransactions—down 5% QoQ, yet up6.3% YoY. Meanwhile,aggregate deal value settled at$227.7billion—includingestimates for late-reporting and undisclosed deal values—an18.4% QoQ pullback that still registers a 10.7% YoY gain. YTDthrough Q2, deal value reached $506.7 billion—includingestimates for late-reporting and undisclosed deal values—pacing for an increase of 28.7% YoY and bolstered by a surgein megadeals. On the basis of count, there were 4,429 deals,including estimates for late reporters, for an increase of8.2% YoY. The lull in April and May, triggered by tariff-policyfriction, gave way to a June rebound as visibility improved,particularly around the US–China trade dialogue.Prediction markets kept rec