有色金属行业周报：“反内卷”政策驱动延续，看好金属价格上行
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请仔细阅读本报告末页声明49%），累库1827吨至14.26万吨。结构看，本周累库1,827吨，行业走势作者分析师执业证书编号：S0680524090002邮箱：zhanghang@gszq.com分析师执业证书编号：S0680525050001邮箱：chujinna@gszq.com研究助理执业证书编号：S0680124070005邮箱：hechengyang@gszq.com相关研究1、《小金属：锑：内盘充分筑底，出口修复锑价或迎突破》2025-07-152、《有色金属：白银的市场认知差》2025-07-143、《有色金属：白银再度强势突破，重视板块投资机遇》2025-07-12投资EPS（元）评级2024A2025E2026E2027E2024A买入0.781.161.411.7428.30买入0.941.331.541.6722.90买入0.630.680.790.8712.70买入2.412.332.492.706.60-20%-10%0%10%20%30%2024-07 增持（维持）张航初金娜何承洋PE2025E2026E16.5113.5517.8715.4212.0010.388.257.742024-112025-03有色金属沪深300 2027E11.0314.239.387.14 P.2内容目录一、周度数据跟踪..................................................................................................................................51.1板块&公司涨跌：本周有色金属板块普遍上涨.................................................................................51.2价格及库存变动：周内有色品种价格涨跌不一................................................................................61.3公司公告跟踪.............................................................................................................................9二、贵金属............................................................................................................................................9三、工业金属........................................................................................................................................133.1铜：宏观韧性与国内去库，支撑铜价高位震荡...............................................................................133.2铝：库存去库延续性等待验证，国内宏观情绪支撑下短期铝价震荡运行...........................................143.3镍：原料偏紧与需求淡季并存，镍价疲软运行...............................................................................17四、能源金属........................................................................................................................................184.1锂：供给侧停产扰动，锂期现价格跳涨........................................................................................184.2钴：钴盐原料价持续高位，厂家报价维持坚挺...............................................................................214.3金属硅：大厂减产计划&下游利好消息传导，短期硅价偏强震荡......................................................22五、稀土&磁材......................................................................................................................................26风险提示..............................................................................................................................................27图表目录图表1：本周各大行业涨跌比较（%）....................................................................................................5图表2：本周申万有色二级行业指数涨跌（%）.......................................................................................5图表3：本周申万有色三级行业指数涨跌（%）.......................................................................................5图表4：本周有色板块涨幅前十（%）....................................................................................................6图表5：本周有色板块跌幅前十（%）....................................................................................................6图表6：贵金属价格涨跌........................................................................................................................6图表7：基本金属价格涨跌.....................................................................................................................6图表8：能源金属价格涨跌.....................................................................................................................7图表9：稀土金属价格涨跌.....................................................................................................................7图表10：小金属价格涨跌......................................................................................................................7图表11：交易所基本金属库存变动.........................................................................................................8图表12：有色分板块公司公告跟踪.........................................................................................................9图表13：美联储资产负债表规模...........................................................................................................10图表14：白银价格走势........................................................................................................................10图表15：美元实际利率与金价走势........................................................................................................10图表16：美国国债收益率（%）...........................................................................................................10图表17：美元指数走势........................................................................................................................11图表18：SPDR黄金ETF持有量（吨）..................................................................................................11图表19：美国新增非农就业与失业率.....................................................................................................11图表20：铜金比与金银比走势..............................................................................................................11图表21：美国制造业PMI（%）............................................................................................................12图表22：欧元区制造业PMI（%）................
