有色金属行业跟踪周报：国内“反内卷”正从情绪推动走向政策落地验证期，工业金属走势料将分化

东吴证券研究所1/182025年07月27日证券分析师孟祥文执业证书：S0600523120001mengxw@dwzq.com.cn证券分析师徐毅达执业证书：S0600524110001xuyd@dwzq.com.cn《美国通胀率走高压制估值，国内弱现实强预期背景下，工业金属价格震2025-07-20《联储7月降息预期被修正，工业金属价格维持震荡走势》2025-07-062024/11/262025/3/262025/7/24有色金属沪深300 行业走势相关研究荡偏弱》-8%-3%2%7%12%17%22%27%32%37%2024/7/29 内容目录1.行情回顾：上证综指上涨1.67%，申万有色金属排名靠前..........................................................52.本周基本面回顾..................................................................................................................................62.1.工业金属：基本面供需平淡，“反内卷”主导宏观预期，工业金属价格表现良好.........62.1.1.铜：冶炼厂减产预期短期支撑铜价，关注美国对铜关税落地情况...........................82.1.2.铝：国内“反内卷”从预期端转向政策落地期，沪铝走势优于伦铝.......................92.1.3.锌：锌库存环比上升，价格涨跌不一.........................................................................102.1.4.锡：缅甸锡矿复产预期强化，本周价格环比上涨.....................................................112.2.贵金属：避险情绪下行压制黄金上行动力，关注下周中美贸易谈判与联储议息会议...122.3.稀土：基本面向好，稀土价格震荡上行...............................................................................143.本周新闻............................................................................................................................................173.1.宏观新闻...................................................................................................................................174.风险提示............................................................................................................................................17 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分东吴证券研究所2/18 图表目录图1：申万一级行业周涨跌幅（%）...................................................................................................5图2：申万有色二级行业周涨跌幅（%）...........................................................................................5图3：有色子行业周涨跌幅（%）.......................................................................................................5图4：本周涨幅前五公司（%）...........................................................................................................6图5：本周跌幅前五公司（%）...........................................................................................................6图6：本周主要标的涨跌幅统计（截至2025年7月25日）...........................................................6图7：LME铜价及库存.........................................................................................................................9图8：SHFE铜价及库存........................................................................................................................9图9：铜粗炼加工费（美元/干吨）.....................................................................................................9图10：铜精废价差（元/吨）...............................................................................................................9图11：LME铝价及库存.....................................................................................................................10图12：SHFE铝价及库存....................................................................................................................10图13：LME锌价及库存.....................................................................................................................11图14：SHFE锌价及库存....................................................................................................................11图15：LME锡价及库存.....................................................................................................................11图16：SHFE锡价及库存....................................................................................................................11图17：各国央行总资产.......................................................................................................................12图18：美联储资产负债表组成...........................................................................................................12图19：美联储银行总资产与Comex黄金.........................................................................................13图20：实际利率与Comex黄金.........................................................................................................13图21：美国国债长短期利差（%）...................................................................................................13图22：金银比（金价/银价）.............................................................................................................13图23：黄金、白银ETF持仓量.........................................................................................................13图24：Comex黄金、白银期货收盘价..............................................................................................13图25：氧化镨钕价格（元/吨）.........................................................................................................14图26：烧结钕铁硼50H（元/千克）..................................................................................................14图27：氧化镧价格（元/吨）.............................................................................................................15图28：氧化铈价格（元/吨）.............................................................................................................15图29：氧化镝价格（元/千克）............................................................................