流动性：匿名隔夜资金价格回归1.35%

证券研究报告 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！分析师孙彬彬SAC证书编号：S0160525020001sunbb@ctsec.com分析师隋修平SAC证书编号：S0160525020003suixp@ctsec.com分析师汪梦涵SAC证书编号：S0160525030003wangmh01@ctsec.com分析师刘金金SAC证书编号：S0160524050001liujj01@ctsec.com相关报告1.《利率｜南向通扩容，机会还是风险？》2025-07-182.《量化|这是一套更准确的利率择时模型》2025-07-173.《 利 率|宏 观 数 据 六 问 六 答 》2025-07-16 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准1匿名隔夜资金价格回归1.35%...............................................................................................................52周度资金存单跟踪和关键点提示.........................................................................................................113央行：央行长短资金净投放，下周关注MLF续作..........................................................................134政府债：下周政府债净缴款下降至2399亿元...................................................................................145票据：走势分化，跨半年票据利率延续下行.....................................................................................156汇率：统计期贬值，人民币即期汇率录得7.18.................................................................................167市场资金供需：银行体系融出回落，非银降低杠杆.........................................................................178CD：募集配置情绪回暖，交易情绪下行...........................................................................................218.1一级发行市场：本周国有行净融资转正，募集情况回暖............................................................218.2二级交易市场：活跃度下移，非银买盘需求回暖带动收益率下行............................................239风险提示.................................................................................................................................................24图1.本周央行投放情况.................................................................................................................................5图2. DR001、R001、Shibor 3M走势..........................................................................................................5图3.净投放背景下国有行净融出并未显著增长.........................................................................................6图4.本周资金体感情况.................................................................................................................................6图5.相比于6月，7月税期资金中枢上抬且波动增加..............................................................................7图6. 2025年7月税期资金上升幅度低于季节性.........................................................................................7图7.本轮税期呵护处于季节性高位.............................................................................................................8图8.周度资金变动.........................................................................................................................................8图9.政治局会议前后，DR001走势偏向于下行........................................................................................8图10.政治局会议召开前一周，R001惯性回落.........................................................................................8图11.各类型银行存单募集成功率上升.......................................................................................................9图12.存单募集情绪良好...............................................................................................................................9图13.存单二级交投活跃度进一步降低.......................................................................................................9图14.非银交易诉求一般...............................................................................................................................9图15.存单再次面临万亿供给冲击.............................................................................................................10图16.存单价格的季节性规律.....................................................................................................................10内容目录图表目录 2 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准3图17.一周资金和存单关键点跟踪.............................................................................................................11图18.下周资金扰动因素.............................................................................................................................12图19.央行周度操作和资金价格走势.........................................................................................................13图20.逆回购存量仍旧高于季节性.............................................................................................................13图21.统计期短期资金到期情况.................................................................................................................13图22.统计期或有中长期资金到期情况.....................................................................................................13图23.政府债净融资和缴款情况.................................................................................................................14图24.政府债净融资进度.............................................................................................................................14图25.结构视角政府债净融资量和进度情况.............................................................................................14图26.国债净融资进度.................................................................................................................................15图27.地方政府债净融资进度............................................................................................................