评估自有住房成本计量变化的货币政策影响：来自ICEQMOD的见解

IMF Selected Issues PaperEuropean DepartmentAssessing the Monetary Policy Implications of Changes in Owner-Occupied Housing CostMeasurement: Insights from ICEQMODPrepared by Amit Kara and Yurii SholomytskyiAuthorized for distribution by Magnus SaxegaardJune 2025IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on May 27, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/142.ABSTRACT:This paper evaluates the policy implications of changing the methodology for calculating the costof owner-occupied housing in the CPI from a “user cost” approach to “rental equivalence” approach.Asynthetic historical CPI series based on the new methodology is created to develop a counterfactual policyscenario in IceQMod, a new Iceland-specific quarterly macroeconomic model based on the IMF’s QuarterlyProjection Model (QPM). The new methodology would have resulted in slightly lower but more volatile inflation,potentially allowing for a looser monetary stance. The paper highlights the role that macroprudential tools couldplay to contain possible financial stability risks resulting from the change and the implications for the equilibriumRECOMMENDED CITATION:Kara, Amit and Sholomytskyi. Assessing the Monetary Policy Implications ofChanges in Owner-Occupied Housing Cost Measurements: Insights from IceQMOD. IMF Selected IssuesPaper (SIP/2025/100). Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund.E1, E5Iceland, Monetary Policy, CPI Inflation, Owner-occupied Housing,Financial Stabilityakara@imf.org, ysholomytskyi@imf.org interest rate and monetary policy.JEL Classification Numbers:Keywords:Author’s E-Mail Address: SELECTED ISSUES PAPERSAssessing the Monetary PolicyImplications of Changes in Owner-Occupied Housing CostMeasurement: Insights fromICEQMODIcelandPrepared by Amit Kara (EUR) and Yurii Sholomytskyi (ICD)1“The authors would like to thank Magnus Saxegaard and the Central Bank of Iceland for detailed feedback. The authors would alsolike to thank Kelly Gao for research assistance. 1 ICELANDSELECTED ISSUESApproved ByEuropean DepartmentASSESSING THE MONETARY POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGES IN OWNER-OCCUPIED HOUSING COST MEASUREMENT: INSIGHTS FROM ICEQMOD ________2A. Introduction _________________________________________________________________________2B. Overview of IceQMod ________________________________________________________________3C. How would inflation and monetary policy have differed if the CPI had always beenbased on the ‘new’ method for estimating the cost of imputed rent? __________________3D. Conclusions__________________________________________________________________________7References____________________________________________________________________________12CONTENTS Prepared By Amit Kara (EUR) and Yurii Sholomytskyi (ICD) 2INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDASSESSING THE MONETARY POLICY IMPLICATIONS OFCHANGES IN OWNER-OCCUPIED HOUSING COSTMEASUREMENT: INSIGHTS FROM ICEQMODA.Introduction1.Conducting monetary policy in a shock-prone and evolving economy presentssignificant challenges.Iceland is a small, advanced economy with a floating exchange rate and asignificant degree of trade openness. The CBI operates under an inflation-targeting framework, witha mandate to maintain inflation at a target rate of 2.5 percent. However, since the inflation targetwas set in 2001, inflation has averaged 4.9 percent. The large discrepancy between the target andrealized inflation underscores the challenges in formulating effective monetary policy in a shock-prone economy undergoing significant structural transformation.2.We introduce a new Iceland-specific Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) calledIceQMod.The QPM is one of the IMF's workhorse models for forecasting and policy analysis,especially monetary policy. QPM is a medium-sized semi-structural model that strikes a balancebetween the theoretical rigor of microfounded models and the practical necessity of datarepresentation. A model such as the QPM can significantly help the monetary policy process byquantifying the size and speed of policy rate adjustments in response to various economic shocks.Additionally, the rational expectations foundation of the model makes it robust to the Lucas critique;it is therefore a valuable tool for forecasting and conducting “what if” policy scenario analysis.IceQMod is calibrated to Icelandic data and tailored to capture the essential features of theeconomy.3.We use the model to assess the implication of a change in the methodology forcalculating the cost of housing services received by homeowners in the CPI.The housingcomponent in the CPI includes three sub-components: (i) actual rent paid by renters; (ii) imputedrent which is measure of the housing services costs received by homeowners; and (iii) andmaintenance and repair of housing. The imputed rent subcomponent carries a hefty 20 per