拉丁美洲和加勒比的气候变化与货币政策

Thank you for your interest inthis ECLAC publicationPlease register if you would like to receive information on our editorialproducts and activities. When you register, you may specify your particularareas of interest and you will gain access to our products in other formats.Click on the link below for our social networks andother channels for accessing our publications:Registerhttps://bit.ly/m/CEPAL Climate change and monetarypolicy in Latin Americaand the CaribbeanMichael Pedersen This document was prepared by Michael Pedersen, consultant with the Economic Development Division of theEconomic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).The author is grateful to Francisco G. Villarreal for his valuable input during the preparation of this study, andto Huidan Lin for sharing the data used in L. Bonato, D. C. Kostroch and H. Lin, “Climate change challenges inLatin America and the Caribbean”,Climate Change Challenges and Opportunities in Latin America and the Caribbean,A. Ivanova, J. A. Kozack and S. Muñoz (eds.), International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2024.The United Nations and the countries it represents assume no responsibility for the content of links to external sitesin this publication.Mention of any firm names and commercial products or services does not imply endorsement by the United Nationsor the countries it represents.The opinions expressed in this document, which has been reproduced without formal editing, are those of the authorand do not necessarily reflect the views of the Organization or the countries it represents.United Nations publicationISSN: 1680-8851 (electronic version)ISSN: 1680-8843 (print version)LC/TS.2025/22Distribution: LCopyright © United Nations, 2025All rights reservedPrinted at United Nations, SantiagoS.2500093[E]This publication should be cited as: M. Pedersen, “Climate change and monetary policy in Latin America and the Caribbean”Macroeconomics of Devel0pment series, No.220 (LC/TS.2025/22), Santiago, Economic Commission for Latin America andthe Caribbean (ECLAC), 2025.Applications for authorization to reproduce this work in whole or in part should be sent to the Economic Commission forLatin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Documents and Publications Division, publicaciones.cepal@un.org. MemberStates and their governmental institutions may reproduce this work without prior authorization, but are requested to mentionthe source and to inform ECLAC of such reproduction. ContentsAbstract................................................................................................................................................5Introduction......................................................................................................................................... 7I.Macroeconomic risks related to climate change in Latin Americaand the Caribbean.................................................................................................................... 9A.Macroeconomic consequences of physical risks ................................................................10B.Macroeconomic consequences of transition risks..............................................................14II.Monetary policy and climate change......................................................................................19A.Climate change relevance for central banks ......................................................................20B.Climate change and the monetary transmission mechanism.............................................21C.Future challenges for monetary policy in the context of climate change ...........................24III.Conclusions: challenges for monetary policy in Latin America and the Caribbean............... 27Bibliography....................................................................................................................................... 31Macroeconomics of Development Series: issues published..............................................................34TablesTable 1Impacts on macroeconomic variables of transition risks ............................................ 17Table 2Monetary policy transmission: effects of climate change...........................................23Table 3Possible central bank actions to respond to climate change ......................................25 FiguresFigure 1Figure 2Figure 3DiagramDiagram 1 Average annual effect of weather-related natural disasters, 1980–2020 .................... 13Macroeconomic Latin America and the Caribbean indicatorsaround largest weather-related natural disasters, 1990–2019..................................14Vulnerability to transition risks .................................................................................. 18The monetary transmission mechanism and climate change.....................................21 AbstractClimate change poses significant challenges to economic stability, particularly in vulnerable regionssuch as Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). T