2025年联合国贸易和发展会议报告：债务世界——是时候进行改革了

ContentsGlobal public debtkeeps rising.The weight of externalpublic debt.People pay the price.A roadmap to financesustainable development. 1234 Globalpublic debtkeeps rising.1 4Global public debt in 2024 surpassesSource:UNCTAD Secretariat calculations based on IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2025).Notes:Figures represent nominal values in current US$. Public debt refers to general government domestic andexternal debt throughout the document. General government consists of central, state and local governmentsand the social security funds controlled by these units.100 000 000 000 000201020122014201620182020202220245075100$51trillion$102trillion4US$ Developing countriesowe 31% of global public debt.Source:UNCTAD Secretariat calculations based on IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2025).Public debt in US$ billions (2024)Spain1 753United States of AmericaUnitedKingdom35 2513 689Japan9 528China16 559India3 177Brazil1 895Mexico1 082Egypt348DevelopedcountriesDeveloping regions Italy3 209Germany2 976Canada2 482Asia and OceaniaLatin America andthe Caribbean 6Public debt grows twice as fast indeveloping than in developed countries.Index: Outstanding public debt in 2010 = 10020102012201420162018202020222024DevelopingcountriesDevelopingcountriesexcl. ChinaDevelopedcountriesSource:UNCTAD Secretariat calculations based on IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2025). 100150200250300350 In 2024 debt-to-GDP ratios increasedslightly, except in Asia and Oceania.Public debt as a share of GDP - median per country groupDevelopingcountriesLatin Americaand theCaribbean202420102024Africa20102024Asia andOceania20102024Source:UNCTAD Secretariat calculations based on IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2025).Note:The median represents the value that lies at the midpoint of the data distribution. 2010020406080% The number of countries with heavydebt burdens remains high.Number of developing countries with public debt exceeding 60% of GDP201520206710681167111071210912141312161211171314171314242023231822241718231618231718AfricaAsia and OceaniaLatin America andthe CaribbeanSource:UNCTAD Secretariat calculations based on IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2025).Note:A benchmark of 60% is used by the IMF as one of its indicators to assess debt burdens inemerging markets. 820406020108510 The weightof externalpublic debt. The weight of external public debtdeclined recently, but remains high.Source:UNCTAD Secretariat calculations based on World Bank International Debt Statistics and IMF WorldEconomic Outlook (April 2025).Notes:External public debt refers to external Public and Publicly Guaranteed (PPG) debt. Exports includeexports of goods, services and primary income receipts. The median represents the value that lies at themidpoint of the data distribution.Median for developing countriesExternal public debtas a share of exports201220142016201820202022 20100204060100120140%72 10 And external debt service burdensshow little sign of improvement.20102012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2023External public debt servicerelative to exportsExternal public debt servicerelative to governmentrevenuesSource:UNCTAD Secretariat calculations based on World Bank International Debt Statistics and IMF WorldEconomic Outlook (April 2025).Notes:External public debt refers to external Public and Publicly Guaranteed (PPG) debt. Exports includeexports of goods, services and primary income receipts. The median represents the value that lies at themidpoint of the data distribution.4.73.26.58.6Median for developing countries 0246810% 11 12Countries with significant external debtservice burden nearly doubled since 2010.Source:UNCTAD Secretariat calculations based on World Bank International Debt Statistics (April 2025).Notes:External debt service refers to Public and Publicly Guaranteed (PPG) debt. Exports refers to exports ofgoods, services and primary income receipts. To avoid undermining Germany’s post-war recovery, the 1953 LondonDebt Agreement implied a debt burden of merely 5% of exports; a value used here as illustrative comparison.Number of developing countries spending more than 5% of exportson external public debt service20122014201620182020202281315131013131214151211191514231918201518221716271918292218292119281616291718AfricaAsia and OceaniaLatin America and theCaribbean 204060201091115 Shifts in the creditor base drive up debtcosts and complicate restructuring.Source:UNCTAD Secretariat calculations based on World Bank International Debt Statistics (April 2025).Note:External public debt refers to external Public and Publicly Guaranteed (PPG) debt.AfricaPrivate creditorsMultilateral creditorsBilateral creditors61%26%14%Developing countriesAsia andOceaniaLatin Americaand the Caribbean60%26%14%42%36%22%61%24%15%71%23%6%201320233404979234708681,984Developingcountries(US$ billion)Composition of external public debt by type of creditor (2023)AfricaPrivate creditorsMultilateral creditorsBilateral creditors61%14%Developing countriesAsia andOceaniaLatin Americ