绿氢及其相关商品贸易潜力分析

DisclaimerThis publication and the material herein are provided “as is”. All reasonable precautions have been taken by IRENA to verify thereliability of the material in this publication. However, neither IRENA nor any of its officials, agents, data or other third-partycontent providers provides a warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied, and they accept no responsibility or liability for anyconsequence of use of the publication or material herein.The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of all Members of IRENA. The mention of specificcompanies or certain projects or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by IRENA in preference toothers of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The designations employed and the presentation of material herein do not implythe expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of itsauthorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries.© IRENA 2025Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, providedthat appropriate acknowledgement is given of IRENA as the source and copyright holder. Material in this publication that is attributedto third parties may be subject to separate terms of use and restrictions, and appropriate permissions from these third parties may needto be secured before any use of such material.Citation:IRENA (2025),Analysis of the potential for green hydrogen and related commodities trade, InternationalRenewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi.ISBN: 978-92-9260-672-5About IRENAThe International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is an intergovernmental organisation that supports countriesin their transition to a sustainable energy future and serves as the principal platform for international co-operation,a centre of excellence, and a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge on renewableenergy. IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, includingbioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development,energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity.www.irena.orgAcknowledgementsThis report was authored by Danial Saleem, Francisco Gafaro (IRENA) and Himali Talware (ex-IRENA). Valuableinput was also provided by IRENA colleagues Norela Constantinescu, James Walker, Luis Janeiro (ex-IRENA),Arno van den Bos, Karan Kochhar, Deepti Siddhanti, Adrian Gonzalez, Yong Chen (ex-IRENA), Patricia Wild,Stefano Jiang, and Abdullah Fahad.The report also benefitted from the valuable inputs and comments of external experts: Emanuele Taibi (FieldEnergy), Herib Blanco (International Energy Agency), Reiner Lanz (World Trade Organization), Nihal Yilmaz(World Trade Organization), Emir Colak (Agora Industry), Leandro Janke (Agora Industry), Joseph Cordonnier(Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), Sami Ramdani (Institut De Relations InternationalesEt Stratégiques-France), and Kendall Esmeijer (European Commission).The report was copy edited by Justin French-Brooks and a technical review was provided by Paul Komor. Editorialand communications support were provided by Francis Field, Stephanie Clarke and Daria Gazzola. The graphicdesign was provided by Nikolaj Holm Sloth and Lene Søjberg (Phoenix Design Aid).IRENA is grateful for the generous support and financial contribution provided by the European Commission forthe implementation of the IFRET project.For further information or to provide feedback:publications@irena.orgThis report is available at:www.irena.org/publications CONTENTSFIGURES.................................................................................................................................4ABBREVIATIONS.....................................................................................................................5EXECUTIVE SUMMARY............................................................................................................6INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................................8SCOPE OF WORK AND METHODOLOGY...............................................................................11HYDROGEN TRADE PATTERNS................................................................................................14A. Same WACC Scenario.................................................................................................................14B. Differentiated WACC Scenario...................................................................................................21C. Comparative review of results and sensitivities......................................................................24KEY INSIGHTS..............................................................................