Orkla (ORK.NO) 2025年上半年财报 - 罕见的必需品行业第二季度增长加速

RatingOutperformPrice Target? ORK.NOQuick Take: 0rkla (ORK.N0) 1H 2025 - Rare Staples 2Q25 GrowthAccelerationOrkla reported its 1H25 earnings this morning, with a solid set of numbers, nicely beatingconsensus expectations. Following a weaker start to the year, with Q1 growth a relativelyanaemic +1.2% organic, Q2 sees a nice acceleration, with organic growth reaching the headyheights of +3.8% in Q2, driven by a balanced combination of volume/mix and pricing. Giventhebackdropofgrowthchallengesacrossthebroaderconsumerlandscapesofarthisyear,we expect that this will prove to be amongst the better organic growth numbers across globalstaplesthisquarter,andnicelyunderscoresOrkla'sstructuralimprovementfollowingthethat consensus numbers will need to rise around 1%, and expect a small positive reaction thestock accordingly.Q2 Consol. PortfCos organic growth of 3.8% carye inl-9bps behind consensus at 3.9%.Q2 Consol. PortCos EBIT (adj.) margin c10.9% came in +27bps ahead of consensus at10.7%.Q2 Group underlying diluteaPsf NOK 1.56 came in 2.5% ahead of consensus at NOK1.52.Adjusted EPSORK.NO (NOK)Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportantinformation.Alternatively,visitour Global ResearchDisclosure Website.First Published: 14 Jul 2025 05:49 UTC Completion Date: 14 Jul 2025 05:49 UTC 107.30130.003.7%15.312.04.5522.0 Close DateORK.NO Close Price (NOK)Price Target (NOK)Upside/(Downside)21%52-Week RangeEDMFYEDecDiv YieldMarket Cap (NOK) (M)9EV (NOK) (M)Performance12MAbsolute (%)33.4EDM (%)13.0sRelative (%)20.4Price Performance, 1YRNOK130NOK120F24AF25EF26EFinancialsF24AF25EF26ECAGRValuation Metrics6.4488'96.99EBITDA (M)10,91710,14510,641(1.3)%Adjusted P/E (x)EV/EBITDA (x)EV/EBIT (x)16.5FCF Yield (%)PEG Adjusted (x)1.6P/FCF (x)PEG Reported (x)1.6 Q2 PERFORMANCE BY DIVISION:Orkla Foods: Organic growth of 1.0% came in -100 bps behind consensus at 2.0%.FoodIngredients:Organicgrowthof9.2%came in+487bpsaheadofconsensusat4.3%Health: Organic growth of 2.2% came in -330 bps behind consensus at 5.5%.India Foods: Organic growth of -1.4% came in -707 bps behind consensus at 5.7%.Home & Personal Care: Organic growth of 8.5% came in +470 bps ahead of consensus at 3.8%.The European Pizza Comp: Organic growth of 1.2% came in -130 bps behind consensus at 2.5%.House Care: Organic growth of -4.8% came in -755 bps behind consensus at 2.8%.Health & Sports Nutrition Group: Organic growth of -7.1% came in -1143 bps behind consensus at 4.3%.EXHIBIT 1: Orkla Q2 sales summary versus consensus and Bernstein expectationsSales - Group (NOK m)Sales - Consol. PortCosOrganicGrowth-Consol.PortCosVolume/mixGrowth -Consol.PortCosPrice Growth - Consol. PortCosUnderlying EBIT-Consol.PortCosUnderlying EBIT % - GroupUnderlyingEBIT%-Consol.PortCosDilutedUnderlying EPSSource: Company data, Bloomberg, Bernstein anal@is and estimatesCSEUROPEAN FOOD 2Q242Q25YoY△2Q17,24417,6502.4%17,29216,83817,5884.5%17,1983.3%3.8%sdq os+3.9%2.3%1.4%sdq 06-1.0%2.4%+140 bps1,8641,9233.2%1,90011.7%12.0%+27 bps10.5%11.1%10.9%-14 bps10.7%X1.661.56-6.2%1.52 2.1%2.3%sdq 6-1.2%+148 bps+27bps2.5%BERNSTEIN SOCIETE CENERALE CROUP 17,40617,3714.0%0.8%3.3%1,97810.7%11.4%1.44 INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONSWe rate Orkla Outperform with a price target of 130.00 NOKBERNSTEIN TICKERTABLETickerRatingCurORK.NONOKEDMSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.EUROPEAN FOOD 11 Jul 2025ClosingPricePriceTarget107.30130.001,462.97 I.REQUIREDDISCLOSURESReferences to "Bernstein" or the “Firm" in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLCC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited andSanfordC.BernsteinJapanKK(≠才－·C·八－株式会社).On April 1, 2024, Societe Generale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB) completed a transaction that created a new joint venturein which their respective cash equities and research businesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respectiveownership percentages in the joint venture differ between North America and the rest of the world, the creation, production andpublication of research is handled collaboratively on a global basis across the two research brands,"Bernstein" and"Autonomous"Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein's “affiliates" relate to both SG andAB and their respective affiliates.VALUATION METHODOLOGYOrklaWe set a NOK130.00 target price for the ORK listing using an EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.0x against our forward NTM+1 EBITDAestimate of NOK11,168.RISKSOrklaDownside risks to our rating (or price target) include:(1) Markets continue to fragment and challenger brands & PL continue to make material share gains(2) Nordic economies grow slower than expected(3) Group organic growth falls below 2% market growth (i.e. lose market share).RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHM