财报发布后的主要投资者辩论话题；2025年第二季度的问题与催化剂

U.S. Multi-Industry Main investor topics of debatepost-earnings; Questions &Catalysts for 2Q25 U.S. Multi-IndustryNEUTRAL We think FTV, LII, PNR, SWKofferthe most room to 'talk up'the outlook / trends they are seeing in the coming weeks vswhat we heard at Q1 earnings, with FTV having the biggest Q2'catalyst' per the CMD / split. U.S. Multi-IndustryJulian Mitchell+1 212 526 1661julian.mitchell@barclays.comBCI, US Jack Cauchi+1 212 526 9154jack.cauchi@barclays.comBCI, US For our detailed thoughts on the sector post-earnings, please see our report. •We retain a Neutral industry view.Afterlast month’s rally, the sector is slightlyunderperforming (-1%) the S&P YTD. Most investors are telling us the cyclical rally willcontinue / valuations do not matter in that there is no ceiling to valuation multiples (just asvaluations apparently did not matter in early April / there was no floor to how low they couldsink), which makes us somewhat wary about whether the sector can really sustain its recentbounce. For 2025 overall, we think the sector will perform in line with the S&P; large capvaluations now look elevated again, with many trading at a 3% ’25 FCF yield. Kenyon C Pelletier+1 212 526 7516kenyonc.pelletier@barclays.comBCI, US Matthew Laflash+1 212 526 8639matthew.laflash@barclays.comBCI, US •Some main topics of discussion / what seems top of mind for investors: Jimmy Yunhao Jiang+1 212 526 6042jimmy.jiang@barclays.comBCI, US (i) Does consumer keep getting worse / should we stay away from Resi plays (we thinkinvestors should be adding to positions in these names; we upgraded LII to OW in March, andupgraded SWK to OW in May); Haemaru Chung+1 212 526 4758haemaru.chung@barclays.comBCI, US (ii) In Short Cycle Industrials, do we see a PMI bounce now thattariffslook less scary, and thishelps SCI revenues re-couple with strong orders data in recent quarters, or does the ordersgrowth slow down / sales stay muted, aspre-tariffpre-buy unwinds (we think a large pre-buyunwind / headwind is unlikely, but growth will stay muted, with moderately rising PMIssupporting SCI multiples); (iii) In Datacenter, do we go back to trying to pay 2% FCF yields for the more-exposed namesand forget about DeepSeek / MSFT capex etc (we think one should not do this, but the hypearound these names we can recall being similar to the telcom equipment / Internet hardwarehype of 2000, so are not sure where the ceiling could be on valuations near-term - we prefer abar bell approach in electricals of short cycle i.e. NVT and very long cycle i.e. GEV); (iv) Who has upside to EPS / margins amidst the evolvingtariffenvironment (we thinkElectricals, HVAC, FTV and SWK screen as most likely here). Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. •Positioning:We think most short-term investors we speak with favor ETN, GEV, JCI, NVT, PNR,VRT. On the other side, ALLE, HUBB, IR, ITW, KMT, LII, OTIS, SWK seem less favored. •Over the rest of Q2, who is likely to have a better message than they did at Q1 earnings?The MI underperformers (share price wise) were DOV, FTV, HUBB, ITW, KMT, LII, MMM, OTIS,PNR, ROP, SWK. Of these, we think FTV, LII, PNR, SWK can deliver better news for investors: FTV– we think its guide on Ralliant’s top line andtariffsimpact was very conservative, andthe company can emphasize this to investors at the CMD on June 10; LII– the guide embeds mid-teens % declines in RHVAC volumes YoY over Q2-Q4aftertheywere flat in Q1, and amidst industry peers sounding upbeat; PNR– the reiteration that the cost headwinds can be passed through even with severetariffsunderscores the ‘Transformation’ is working; SWK– the company had guided to almost zero earnings in Q2, and a majortariffnetheadwind for 2025 overall; we think this message will be toned down. •Coming out of earnings, which stocks may be seeing some inflection in buysidesentiment? ROK (+ve)- sales have turned the corner, with YoY growth now for the 1sttime in 18 months,and the June Q EPS guide looks conservative(aftera 2-3 year period of declining Streetestimate revisions); HON (+ve)- it appears that management had set out a conservative guide, and it could returnto being a beat and raise story(aftera 2-3 year period of subdued Street estimate revisions); NVT (+ve)– it appears that management had set out a conservative guide, and the top-line /orders were encouraging(aftersubdued 2H24 numbers); RRX (+ve)– keeping the guide was a surprise, coupled with a better Q2 outlook; perhapsafter2 years of negative EPS revision momentum since Altra closed, this one could be on the upagain; OTIS (-ve)– the Service mis-step is rare, and it is possible the Repair ‘hangover’(afterastr