在气候变化中建立抗洪能力：来自美国、英国和德国的见解

Building Flood Resiliencein a Changing ClimateInsights from the United States,England and GermanyMaryam Golnaraghi,The Geneva AssociationSwenja Surminski, London School of EconomicsCarolyn Kousky, Wharton Risk Center, University of Pennsylvania The Geneva AssociationThe Geneva Association was created in 1973 and is the only global association of insurance companies; ourmembers are insurance and reinsurance Chief Executive Officers (CEOs). Based on rigorous research conducted incollaboration with our members, academic institutions and multilateral organisations, our mission is to identifyand investigate key trends that are likely to shape or impact the insurance industry in the future, highlighting whatis at stake for the industry; develop recommendations for the industry and for policymakers; provide a platform toour members, policymakers, academics, multilateral and non-governmental organisations to discuss these trendsand recommendations; reach out to global opinion leaders and influential organisations to highlight the positivecontributions of insurance to better understanding risks and to building resilient and prosperous economies andsocieties, and thus a more sustainable world.Published by The Geneva Association—International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics, Zurich.The Geneva Association—International Association for the Study of Insurance EconomicsTalstrasse 70, CH-8001 ZurichEmail: secretariat@genevaassociation.org | Tel: +41 44 200 49 00 | Fax: +41 44 200 49 99 2www.genevaassociation.orgJune 2020Building Flood Resilience in a Changing Climate© The Geneva AssociationPhoto credits:Cover page—Matthew Orselli, Shutterstock. ContentsForeword1.Executive summary2.Introduction2.1.Flood risk: A major physical climate risk and a growing global concern2.2.Global trends in disaster and climate risk management2.3.About this study3.An enhanced framework for flood risk management4.Country-specific trends and findings4.1.United States4.2.England4.3.Germany5.Overall trends and key findings6.Recommendations for the way forwardReferencesAnnexesAnnex 1: Questions used for mapping and analysing the evolution of flood risk managementAnnex 2a: The flood risk management system in the United StatesAnnex 2b: Flood risk management in the United States: Pre-1950–2019Annex 3a: The flood risk management system in EnglandAnnex 3b: Flood risk management in England: Pre-1950–2019Annex 4a: The flood risk management system in GermanyAnnex 4b: Flood risk management in Germany: Pre-1950–2019 3Building Flood Resilience in a Changing Climate101415172020212225293235384042444850 4www.genevaassociation.orgAcknowledgementsWe are grateful to Munich Re's NatCatSERVICE for providing the data used in this project,and we extend our special thanks to Petra Löw and Sabine Schlüter-Mayr (Munich Re). Weexpress our gratitude to the members of The Geneva Association Flood Project AdvisoryTeam for contributing invaluable insights to the overall design of the project, includingShiraj Khan (AIG), Wolfgang Kron (Munich Re, retired), Leigh Wolfrom (Organisationfor Economic Cooperation and Development – OECD), Darius Pissulla (Hannover Re),Cameron Rye (formerly of SCOR), Michael Szoenyi (Zurich Insurance), Mandy Dennison(Intact Financial), Masaaki Nagamura (Tokio Marine), Jacki Johnson (IAG), Alan Milroy(AXA XL), Iain Hamilton (Aviva) and Xiaoting Hu (Tokio Marine Technologies). Wewould like to thank all members of The Geneva Association Working Group on ClimateChange and Emerging Environmental Topics for their support, review and feedback,with particular thanks to Simone Ruiz-Vergote, Andreas Funke and Markus Aichinger(Allianz); Jennifer Waldner, Anthony Zobl, Paul DiPaola, Marc Lehman, MohammadJavanbarg, Mahesh Pantula, Kartik Lotlikar and Evan Hughes (AIG); Chris Boss (Aviva);Andrew Dyer and Mark Leplastrier (IAG); Martin Beaulieu and Mandy Dennison (IntactFinancial); Edward Mishambi and Craig Tillmann (Renaissance Re); Junaid Seria, GuillaumeOminetti, Maurizio Savina and Stefan Rimkus (SCOR); Masaaki Nagamura and Kei Kato(Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance Co) and Ernst Rauch, Eberhard Faust and PanosCharissiadis (Munich Re). Finally, we thank Kai-Uwe Schanz (The Geneva Association) forhis helpful comments. Foreword The parallels between the COVID-19 pandemic and climate risks are clear: they costfar more to react to than to prepare for, and the most severe costs are borne by themost vulnerable.Floods are the costliest weather-related events globally. Major flooding events arecommon, and the increasing frequency and severity of weather-related events linked toclimate change will likely increase the direct and indirect economic impacts of floods.Countries must be prepared.The Geneva Association has carried out broad and deep investigations into the flood riskmanagement (FRM) systems of a number of countries, beginning with the studies on theUnited States, England and Germany summarised in this report.Our findings are at least p