新冠肺炎后的全球风险形势：保险的作用是什么？

The global risk landscapeafter COVID-19:What role for insurance?Kai-Uwe Schanz,Deputy Managing Director and Head of Research & Foresight,The Geneva Association Our many thanks to all the experts whose comments and contributions have benefitedthis publication: Edward Barron (AIG), Paul DiPaola (AIG), Kean Driscoll (AIG),Andreas Funke (Allianz), Maryam Golnaraghi, Gong Xinyu (PICC), Arne Holzhausen (Allianz),Kei Kato (Tokio Marine Holdings), Christian Kraut (Munich Re), Roman Lechner (Swiss Re),Ivo Menzinger (Swiss Re), Cameron Murray (Lloyd’s of London), Guillaume Ominetti (SCOR),Gisela Plassmann (ERGO), Olivier Poissonneau (AXA), Veronica Scotti (Swiss Re)and Lutz Wilhelmy (Swiss Re).AcknowledgementsThe Geneva Association is very grateful to the following executives and academic expertswho shared their perspectives through in-depth interviews:/ Oliver Bäte,CEO, Allianz/Mark J. Browne,Professor and Chair of the Faculty of Risk Management,Insurance and Actuarial Science, Tobin College of Business at St John's University/Brian Duperreault,Executive Chair of the Board, AIG/Jan-Hendrik Erasmus,Chief Risk Officer, Aviva/Renaud Guidée,Chief Risk Officer, AXA/Jerome Haegeli,Chief Economist, Swiss Re/Jean-Jacques Henchoz,CEO, Hannover Re/Ekhosuehi Iyahen,Secretary General, Insurance Development Forum (IDF)/Paula Jarzabkowski,Professor of Strategic Management, The Business School(formerly Cass), City, University of London/JIANG Xing,CEO,ZhongAn Online P&C Insurance/Denis Kessler,Chairman & CEO, SCOR/LUO Xi,Chairman, People's Insurance Company of China (PICC)/Michael Menhart,Chief Economist, Munich Re/Tsuyoshi Nagano,Chairman of the Board, Tokio Marine/Eduardo Pérez de Lema,Chairman & CEO, MAPFRE RE/Richard Peter,Associate Professor of Finance, The Emmett J. Vaughan Instituteof Risk Management and Insurance, The University of Iowa/Pierre Picard,Professor of Economics, École Polytechnique (Palaiseau, France)/Bruno Scaroni,Chief Transformation Officer, Generali/Hiroshi Shimizu,President, Nippon Life/Nick Silitch,Chief Risk Officer, Prudential Financial/Stuart A. Spencer,Chief Marketing Officer & Member of the ExCo, AIA/Fred Wagner,Professor, Institut für Versicherungswissenschaften, Universität Leipzig/Garance Wattez-Richard,CEO, AXA Emerging Customers/Mamiko Yokoi-Arai,Deputy Head of Financial Markets Division, Head of Infrastructureand Alternative Financing, OECD/ZHENG Wei,Lloyd's Chair Professor and Chairperson of Department of Risk Managementand Insurance, School of Economics, Peking University Contents Foreword06 /Executive summary08 /Setting the scene:How the post-COVID-19 risklandscape could look 46 / The voice of insurancecustomers – Findingsfrom a global survey52 / Long-termstrategic implications forinsurance – Conclusionsand recommendations54 /Protection gaps and corporate purpose55 /Scope of business models56 /Sustainability57 /Digitalisation58 /Product complexity60 /Appendix68 /References 10 / Scenarios for thepost-COVID-19 risklandscape10 /The baseline scenario12 /Transition to a ‘New Normal’26 /The baseline scenario’s relevancefor insurance40 /The alternative scenarios42 /Emerging stronger,a more optimistic outlook44 /Protracted fragility,a more pessimistic outlook The COVID-19 pandemic transformed our lives overnight. Physical distancing,face masks, hand sanitizers. Lockdowns, quarantines, remote work. The streetsof the world’s most populous, vibrant cities – suddenly silent and empty.As of June 2021, we seem to have turned a corner, with a numberof viable vaccines and solid evidence that, at least in principle, we knowhow to defeat this virus. We are entering the post-COVID-19 world.But which of the changes from 2020 will stick? How will the lastingchanges impact insurers and how will they respond? With those questionsin mind, we embarked on the research presented in this publication.Of course, we cannot offer firm conclusions. But through expert interviewsand a global customer survey covering eight markets – Brazil, China,France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S. – we identifiedrecurring themes and observations that hint at what to expect.Each trend deserves careful consideration. Take ‘accelerated digitalisation’,a now-ubiquitous phrase when discussing the impacts of COVID-19.There are major upsides for society (e.g. telehealth provision, flexible work)and insurers (e.g. customer reach, innovative products) alike.But there are serious downsides, too, with cybercriminals exploitingour more digitised routines. Increased risk awareness also does not necessarily translate into increaseddemand for insurance. In fact, while customers rank cyber insurance as moreimportant in the post-pandemic world, a much smaller percentage planto buy more of it. This is a call for insurers to step up their education effortson the benefits of insurance.By and large, insurers pulled through for their customers during the pandemic.This is to be applauded. High percentages of our survey respondents reportedpos