社会通货膨胀：应对不断变化的索赔环境

December 2020 Darren Pain,The Geneva AssociationSocial Inflation: Navigating theevolving claims environment The Geneva AssociationThe Geneva Association was created in 1973 and is the only global association of insurance companies; ourmembers are insurance and reinsurance Chief Executive Officers (CEOs). Based on rigorous research conducted incollaboration with our members, academic institutions and multilateral organisations, our mission is to identifyand investigate key trends that are likely to shape or impact the insurance industry in the future, highlighting whatis at stake for the industry; develop recommendations for the industry and for policymakers; provide a platform toour members, policymakers, academics, multilateral and non-governmental organisations to discuss these trendsand recommendations; reach out to global opinion leaders and influential organisations to highlight the positivecontributions of insurance to better understanding risks and to building resilient and prosperous economies andsocieties, and thus a more sustainable world.Social Inflation: Navigating the evolving claims environmentPublished by The Geneva Association—International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics, Zurich.The Geneva Association—International Association for the Study of Insurance EconomicsTalstrasse 70, CH-8001 ZurichEmail: secretariat@genevaassociation.org | Tel: +41 44 200 49 00 | Fax: +41 44 200 49 99 2www.genevaassociation.orgDecember 2020© The Geneva AssociationPhoto credits:Cover page— Shutterstock.com ContentsForeword1.Executive summary2.What is social inflation?2.1.Broad and narrow interpretations2.2.Episodic swings in the liability environment2.3.Recent escalation in litigation and claims2.4.Isolating the underlying claims trend3.What are the underlying drivers?3.1.Legislative and judicial developments3.2.Aggressive strategies of the plaintiffs’ bar3.3.Shifts in judge and jury attitudes3.4.Evolving litigation finance4.How can insurers respond?4.1.Engage with the public policy debate4.2.Proactive defence case management4.3.Improved exposure monitoring and analysis4.4.Product innovation5.Concluding remarksReferences 3Social Inflation: Navigating the evolving claims environment56889911151519222529313233363839 4www.genevaassociation.orgAcknowledgementsWe are indebted to the members and affiliates of the Working Group of The GenevaAssociation's Evolving Liability work stream, namely:•Tom Allebone-Webb, Trevor Maynard and Alex Wickett (Lloyd’s of London)•Ciara Brady and Arne Holzheuer (Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty)•Ina Ebert, Gerard Skalka and Joachim Haun (Munich Re)•Tim Fletcher (Gen Re)•Estelle Hascoet and Keith Thomas (AXA)•Pierre-Yves Loertscher (Partner Re)•Keesha-Lu Mitra, Ryan Gammelgard, Bob Watkins and Chase McCall (State Farm)•Pierpaolo Marano (Catholic University of the Sacred Heart, Milan)•Mehul Mehta and Philip Myers (Chubb)•Carolina Ochoa Pinzón, Andrew Guarnori, Jane Mandigo and Dana Franzetti (Swiss Re)•Chris Paar (Intact)•Edward Barron, Andrew Redman, Cindy Koehler and Rich Olsen (AIG)•Kai-Uwe Schanz (The Geneva Association)•Viola Zsédely-Takács (Ageas)This report has benefitted significantly from their comments and input.In addition, we would like to thank a number of external interlocutors who kindlyagreed to share their thoughts and insights as background to the report. In particular:•Adam Boesen (Boesen Consulting)•Luke Baker (Generali)•Clint Cox (Clint Cox LLC)•Tom Geroulo (Bardsley, Benedict and Cholden LLP)•Alex Guillamont (Kennedys)•John Hall (Hall Boot Smith, P.C.)•Leo Martinez (Emeritus Professor of Law, UC Hastings San Francisco)•Nick Pace and Lloyd Dixon (Rand ICJ)•Robert Reville (Praedicat)•Damon Vocke and Ron Lepinskas (Duane Morris LLP)•Gordon Woo (RMS) Foreword 5Social Inflation: Navigating the evolving claims environment5Social Inflation: Navigating the evolving claims environmentInsurers need to accurately model the risks they underwrite and price them accordingly.Otherwise, unexpected claims payments can seriously damage insurers’ balance sheetsand challenge their capacity to provide vital support to society.Social inflation linked to liability risks, gone unchecked, poses such a threat. Socialinflation is no longer plaguing only the United States but starting to spread to otherjurisdictions around the world. The number of liability claims pursued through litigation isincreasing along with the compensation awarded to plaintiffs.Liability insurance is long-tail in nature, meaning that large claims may occur far in thefuture and ultimately prove underpriced. That is why the recent rise in social inflationis cause for concern: insurance premiums may no longer adequately compensateinsurers for the liability risks they assume, including the cost of capital needed to coverunexpected or underestimated losses.Against this backdrop, insurers should be proactive: strengthen their claims managementprocesses, focus on better understanding and measuring liab