通货膨胀的回归：对保险业意味着什么

THE RETURN OF INFLATION:What it means for insuranceKai-Uwe SchanzHead of Research & Foresight and Director Socio-economic Resilience,The Geneva AssociationContributing author:Pieralberto TreccaniResearch Support Manager, The Geneva Association The Geneva AssociationThe Geneva Association was created in 1973 and is the only global association of insurancecompanies; our members are insurance and reinsurance Chief Executive Officers (CEOs).Based on rigorous research conducted in collaboration with our members, academicinstitutions and multilateral organisations, our mission is to identify and investigate keytrends that are likely to shape or impact the insurance industry in the future, highlightingwhat is at stake for the industry; develop recommendations for the industry and forpolicymakers; provide a platform to our members and other stakeholders to discuss thesetrends and recommendations; and reach out to global opinion leaders and influentialorganisations to highlight the positive contributions of insurance to better understandingrisks and to building resilient and prosperous economies and societies, and thus a moresustainable world.Geneva Association publications:Pamela Corn, Director CommunicationsHannah Dean, Editor and Content ManagerPetr Neugebauer, Digital Media ManagerSuggested citation: The Geneva Association. 2023.The Return of Inflation: What it means for Insurance.Authors: Kai-Uwe Schanz andPieralberto Treccani. January.© The Geneva Association, 2023 All rights reservedwww.genevaassociation.orgPhoto credits:Cover page – Colin Lloyd on Unsplash 2 ForewordExecutive summary1.Introduction2.Inflation outlook2.1The cyclical view2.2The structural view3.The impact of inflation and rising interest rates on insurers3.1Earnings3.2Balance sheets4.Insurers’ responses to inflationary shocks: A value chain perspective4.1Product design4.2Marketing4.3Underwriting/pricing/reserving4.4Distribution4.5Claims4.6Customer service4.7Investments5.Inflation and the role of insurance in society5.1The value of insurance in times of inflation5.2Effects of inflation on insurance demand and supply5.3Effects of inflation on insurance penetration6.Conclusions and recommendations: How to maintain and furtherstrengthen the role of insurance in times of inflationAppendixReferencesContents 568111213181922252626262727272730303234384146 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThis publication is a product of the Socio-economic Resilience work stream of The GenevaAssociation, co-sponsored by Christian Mumenthaler, CEO of Swiss Re and Chairman of TheGeneva Association, and Markus Riess, CEO of ERGO. Special thanks go to Markus Riess forhis substantial inputs to this report.We are also grateful to the following experts and executives who made themselvesavailable for interviews or provided editorial contributions:•Manuel Aguilera Verduzco,Director General, MAPFRE Economics•Bart Boon,Senior Manager Corporate Strategy, Achmea•Olivier Colsoul,Senior Strategist, AG Insurance•Ben Coumans,Group Direct or Strategy and M&A, Ageas•Jerome Haegeli,Group Chief Economist, Swiss Re•Arne Holzhausen,Global Head Insurance, Wealth and Trend Research, Allianz•Olav Jones,Deputy Director General & Director Economics and Finance, Insurance Europe•Arthur Kamp,Chief Economist, Sanlam Investments•Michael Menhart,Head of Economics, Sustainability and Public Affairs, Munich Re•Philippe Trainar,Director, SCOR Foundation for Science•David Tremblay,Group Chief Investment Officer, Intact Financial Corporation•Rachel Turk,Group Head Strategy, Beazley•Clarence Wong,Chief Economist, Peak Re•Li XING,Head Insurance Market Analysis, Swiss Re InstituteWe would also like to thank the members of the Working Group, established in support ofour Socio-economic Resilience research activities, namely: Matthew Blakely (RGA),Sen CHEN (CPPIC), Olivier Desbiey (AXA), Naomi Graham (IAG), Thomas Holzheu(Swiss Re), Kei Kato (Tokio Marine), Yunlong LIU (PICC), Klaus Mühleder (Vienna InsuranceGroup), Gisela Plassmann (ERGO), Gonzalo de Cadenas Santiago (MAPFRE), Camila Serna(Chubb) and Clarence Wong (Peak Re). 4 Foreword The post-pandemic surge in inflation, turbo charged by the war in Ukraine, has had massiveeconomic, social and political ramifications, touching on the everyday lives of people andbusinesses around the world. The return of inflation also has profound implications forinsurers, who must find ways to carefully manage the risks, as well as respond to the chang-ing needs of customers.While there are hopes that inflation may ease in 2023, it will continue to be higher than inpre-pandemic times. Geopolitical tensions continue to simmer and global supply chains re-main vulnerable. On top, wider societal challenges such as climate change and populationageing will contribute to a higher inflationary environment going forward, as huge amountsof capital are mobilised for decarbonisation, expenditure on health and elderly care isramped up and tensions on labour markets are exacerbated.The sudden shift f