2025年欧洲工业品行业状况

contents 04An Outlook Between Hopeand ConvictionRefocus of Strategies andOperating Models NecessaryMethodology05 Introduction02Geopolitical Worries TakeCenter StageEurope’s Industrial GoodsSector Runs Out of Steam01 IntroductionWelcome to the 2025 Europeanedition of Oliver Wyman’sState ofthe Industrial Goods Sectorreport.2024 was — and 2025 continuesto be — a tough year for mostof the industrial goods sector inEurope. Against a backdrop ofslow macroeconomic growth,disadvantageous competitiveconditions in Europe, and — mostof all — continued geopoliticaltensions and disruptions, thesector has only produced marginalgrowth. The imminent cyclicalupswing that many parts of theindustry had anticipated hasbeen delayed by the uncertaintycreated on the geopolitical stage.Uncertainty is poison for decision-making, and investment decisionsare what this sector relies on. There also are pockets of light in asector as diverse as industrial goodsthat are not seeing stagnation.If your business is fueled by amegatrend that delivers (not alldo!) like electrification or artificialintelligence (AI) — that is, if yousupply equipment for powernetworks or data centers — youare likely having a fantastic time.Extraordinary value growth, partlydriven by these megatrends,also is being achieved by leadersin Oliver Wyman’s companyranking of top value creators.These are the key themes discussedin the three main sections of ourreport. This year, we have chosena more compact and graphicformat, which we hope you willlike. A big thank you goes outto all the executives who have Consequently, executive sentimenthas fallen to a new low (from 6.4to 5.4, on a scale of 1-10), andshort-term growth expectationsare subdued. That mood camethrough in our discussions withCEOs and other executives whohave experienced another yearof sideways movement andconsiderable effort for limitedgain. A feeling of “grinding” as weput it in this year’s report title.Still, overall uncertainty has notled to paralysis. Many companiesare driving hard on innovationto regain their competitive edgeagainst rising internationalcompetition. And they are adaptingtheir operating models for morecomprehensive regionalization toincrease their resilience againstfurther geopolitical tightening. shared their perspectives with usthrough in-person discussionsand via our executive survey.As Europe’s industrial goodssector grinds through slow growthand economic uncertainty, theimperative to think strategicallyand adapt flexibly has never beenclearer. We trust this report willprovide valuable insights andperspectives to help leaders steerthrough this transformative phase.Enjoy the read!Wolfgang KrenzPartner, Sector Leader, Industrial GoodsYours sincerely, Sentiment turns GLOOMIER amid underperformanceof Europe’s industrial goods sectorExecutive sentiment hasturned gloomier, particularlyin Germany and ItalyExhibit 1: Sentiment regarding the stateof the industrial goods sector on a scaleof 1 (worst) to 10 (best), shareof responsesFor 2025, half of executivesdon’t expect growthExhibit 2: Expected revenue development2025, share of responsesEuropean industrial goodsfirms (IGO) underperformedthe broader industry andglobal peers last yearExhibit 3: Left: stock index performance,indexed (2015=100), price at yearend; right: company performance byheadquarters location20232024567849%Revenue decline or stagnation42%Moderate growth20152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024100140180220IGO EuropeMSCI Europe260+5%+4% Value Continues to Shift Asoperating results divergeGrowth for high-tech & software comes to a halt,cyclicals suffer, and electrification emerges as awinnerExhibit 4: Market capitalization of European companies at year end,% of total and billion €20152016201720182019202020212022202333%16%17%4%5%7%2%2%7%6%34%18%15%5%4%6%3%2%8%5%34%16%14%6%4%6%3%2%9%6%30%16%15%7%5%6%2%2%10%7%30%15%15%6%4%5%2%2%13%7%29%12%13%6%9%4%2%1%16%8%29%11%13%6%5%4%3%1%21%8%30%12%13%6%6%4%2%2%20%7%∑=561 Revenue change2023-2024EBIT margin2024EBIT marginChange 2023-202422%31%5%9%7%5%11%13%11%14%+5%+13%-2%-3%+9%-9%-1%+3%+4%+3%-0.7pp-0.6pp-2.7ppSignificant spread inrevenueand profitperformanceExhibit 5: Weighted average revenue growth and EBITmargin by subsector 202431%12%11%5%4%3%2%2%22%7%34%13%11%4%5%3%2%2%21%6%∑=1507 +3.5pp+1.3pp+0.4pp+0.7pp+0.1pp+0.1pp+0.5pp Exceptional value creation is being achieved by leading companies,often driven by strong demand for electrification andautomationTop 5 by absolutevalue creationExhibit 6: Change in marketcapitalization in billion €,European company sampleTop 5 by relativevalue creationExhibit 7: Change in marketcapitalization in %, Europeancompany sampleCountryNameSegmentRevenue 2024Marketcapitalization 20241SiemensEnergy AGPower systems€36.3 billion€39.8 billion2Mpac Group plcProduction systems€0.1 billion€0.2 billion3KoncarIndustrial components€0.5 billion€1.0 billion4Arteche LantegiElkartea SAIndustrial components€0.5 billion€0.4 billion5AccelleronIndustries AGPowe