中国2040年展望：技术与政策基础

Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report.309April2025ExecutiveSummaryThe next decade and half would likely see China move up the value chain ofmanufacturing and services in a substantive manner. Immediate concerns aboutitsprolonged property sector crisis, aging demographics, andintensifyingtradewar tend to obfuscate the country’s ongoing foundational transformation. Thisreport incorporates the near-term headwinds, and yet comes through with aconstructive take on the medium term, based on China’s tech transformationand supportive policies.Our growth model findsGDP growthaveraging3%during the coming decadeand a half.Growing consumption baseand a modesttotalfactor productivityrebound, driven by AI and automation, provideoffsetsto a likely slowing ofcapital formation.•AI, semiconductors, and green energy are poised to be key growth drivers.China’s push for AI chips and semiconductor self-sufficiency, backed by state-ledR&D,should support productivity gains.Investments in smarturbanisation and renewables will enhance efficiency,while EVs andautomation reshape key industries.•AI adoptioninhealthcare, logistics, and manufacturingwould be critical. AI-driveninnovations,such as precision diagnostics in healthcare and smartsupply chains,will optimize resource allocation.•AI, electric vehicles, green hydrogen, and advanced healthcare technologiesare set to dominate, while traditional manufacturing,labour-intensivesectors, and roles reliant on repetitive taskswill recede.•Challenges remain multifaceted.Demographic decline is a key constraint,with a shrinking workforce and rising elderly dependency. The ongoingproperty market correction continues to erode household wealth andconsumer confidence, while labour markets face pressure from youthunemployment andtech-driven job displacement.A reset of globalizationand reshaping of supply chains warrant adroit public-private partnership andpragmatic policy making.• Table ofContents1Introduction..................................................................................................................................................32A growth model for 2025-2040....................................................................................................................62.1Solow growth model...........................................................................................................................63Prominent challenges..................................................................................................................................93.1Aging....................................................................................................................................................9Box article 1:Pension fund expenditure.......................................................................................................113.2Employment......................................................................................................................................123.3Property market................................................................................................................................12Box article 2: From capital intensive to consumption driven growth..........................................................17Box article 3: Local government debt and central government spending...................................................184Positive drivers...........................................................................................................................................194.1AI-related investment.......................................................................................................................19Computing power.......................................................................................................................................19Semiconductor and AI chips.......................................................................................................................21Data centre.................................................................................................................................................224.2AI application.....................................................................................................................................23Industrial robotics.......................................................................................................................................23Robotics + Elderly Care...............................................................................................................................24Healthcare and pharmaceutical..................................................................................................................25Smart agriculture........................................................................................................................................26Electric and smart vehicles.............................................