请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 远东研究·信用展望 2022年3月25日 中国基础化工行业的信用展望为稳定。该展望体现了远东资信对中国基础化工行业未来12个月基本信用状况的预期。 观点摘要 展望未来，“双碳”目标、安全生产等政策因素会在未来增加基础化工行业各子领域企业运营成本、技术替代风险以及进入壁垒，从而加速各子领域内低端产能的出清，优化行业格局，利好各子领域龙头企业。 具体到涤纶子领域，短期来看，Omicron变异株对我国疫情防控形成挑战，下游需求将受到暂时性的压制。长期来看，我国疫情防控措施精准有效，未来经济复苏整体向好的大趋势不会改变，预计服装、家纺等国内需求未来仍有修复空间。同时，海外疫情引起的扰动可能与去年相比更小，海外服装和家纺产品需求或将持续回暖。国际原油期货价格或将维持高位运行，对涤纶成本端形成支撑。综合来看，预计未来涤纶行业仍将处于景气区间。 具体到氯碱子领域，受“双碳”目标影响，未来氯碱行业新增产能有限，且大概率以乙烯法为主。原材料方面，煤价总体稳定，但是2022年国内仍会紧抓能耗双控政策，原料电石价格将有较强支撑，PVC也将面临高成本支撑。国内建筑地产目前偏冷运行，未来短期内氯碱下游需求可能受到一些遏制，但中长期来看，国内基建发力能够有效对冲房地产投资增速的下滑，将会对PVC和烧碱下游需求形成较强支撑。总的来说，预计氯碱子领域今年仍将处于景气区间。 具体到化肥子领域，我国化肥行业产能过剩的状态将继续改善，行业格局持续优化。当前粮食价格仍处于高位，或有助于推高粮食种植积极性，对化肥的下游需求形成支撑。同时，短期内成本端支撑仍会存在。综合来看，氮肥、磷肥价格未来仍有较强支撑；钾肥依赖进口，俄乌冲突引发钾肥国际供给紧张，未来可能价格维持高位，但我国会通过释放国储来平抑价格波动。总的来说，预计化肥行业今年整体运行稳定。 总的来说，2021年我国经济持续复苏，受到成本、需求双重支撑，涤纶、氯碱和化肥行业均运行稳健。预计今年宏观政策稳中求进，加大基础设施建设力度，扩大内需。行业整体受“双碳 ”目标影响较大，未来成本端会为其运行提供支撑，同时，供给结构将会不断优化。预计2022年各子领域仍保持景气，运行稳定。 发债企业相关关键财务指标方面，各子领域发债主体情况总体较好，涤纶子领域发债主体财务状况最为优秀，而化肥子领域发债主体财务状况相对较弱。 此外，对于基础化工行业（本文主要指涤纶、氯碱和化肥等子行业），远东资信主要关注以下风险点：（1）原材料（如原油等）价格大幅波动；（2）Omicron变异株传播带来的疫情防控措施阶段性收紧对企业经营以及下游需求产生负面影响。（3）国际局势的不确定性增加可能影响企业海外销售及原材料采购相关业务。（4）“双碳”目标相关政策大幅提升发债主体运营成本。 新形势下中国基础化工行业运行与信用展望 作 者：陈浩川 邮箱：research@fecr.com.cn 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 远东研究·信用展望 2022年3月25日 综上所述，总体看，2022年我国基础化工行业面临的积极稳健因素较多，我们对2022年中国基础化工行业的信用展望为稳定。 1 / 2 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 Industry Outlook of China March 25th, 2022 Our outlook for the commodity chemical industry is stable. This outlook expresses Fareast Credit’s expectations for the fundamental credit conditions in the commodity chemical industry over the next 12 months. Summary of Opinions Looking to the future, policy factors such as the "dual carbon" goal and safe production issue will increase the operating costs, technology substitution risks and entry barriers in each sub-field of the commodity chemical industry. The elimination of low-end capacity in each sub-field will be accelerated and the industry competition structure will be optimized, which will benefit the leading enterprises in each sub-field. Specific to the polyester sub-field, in the short term, Omicron variant pose a challenge to China's epidemic prevention and control, which will temporarily suppress the demand. In the long run, China's epidemic prevention and control measures will be precise and effective, and the overall trend of economic recovery will remain positive in the future. It is expected that there is still space for domestic demand for clothing and home textiles to recover. At the same time, the disturbance caused by overseas epidemic may be weaker than last year, and overseas demand for clothing and home textile products may continue to recover. The futures prices of international crude oil may maintain high, which may push up the cost of polyester. In general, polyester industry is expected to remain prosperous in 2022. Specific to the chlor-alkali sub-field, affected by the "double carbon" goal, the growth of production capacity of the chlor-alkali industry in China will be limited, which most likely to be dominated by ethylene method. In terms of raw materials, although the coal price will be generally stable, China will adhere to the double control actions on energy consumption in 2022. The price of calcium carbide will be strongly supported, and PVC will also face high cost. At present, the domestic construction real estate is not prosperous, which will restrain the demand of chlor-alkali products in the short term. However, in the medium and long term, the increase in construction of domestic infrastructure can effectively hedge the decline in the growth rate of real estate investment, which will form a strong support for the demand of PVC and caustic soda. Overall, the chlor-alkali industry is expected to remain prosperous in 2022. Specific to the fertilizer sub-field, the overcapacity of China's fertilizer industry will continue to relieve. The industry competition structure will continue to be optimized. Current high fertilizer prices may help boost incentives of farmers to grow grain, which will increase the demand for fertilizer. At the same time, the price of raw materials will remain high in the short term. Overall, the prices of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer will be strongly supported in the future. China’s potash fertilizer depends on import. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused a shortage of international supply of potash Commodity Chemical Industry Outlook Author: Chen Haochuan E-mail：research@fecr.com.cn