EMEA银行仪表板

rding the status of non-US analysts on pages 10 - 17 of this report. Jefferies, BloombergJefferies EMEA Banks * I JefferiesInternational Ltd.+44 (0) 20 7029 8309jefferiesemeabanks@jefferies.comJoseph Dickerson |Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8309 Ijdickerson@jefferies.comJonathan Pierce * IEquity Analyst+44 (0)20 7548 4079 1jpierce@jefferies.comInigo Vega ^ IEquity Analyst+34 910769995 I ivega@jefferies.comNaresh Narendra Bilandani IEquity Analyst+971 4 231 6013 I nbilandani@jefferies.comMarco Nicolai, CFA ^ IEquity Analyst+39 02 3601 1946 Imnicolai@jefferies.comAlexander Demetriou * I Equity Analyst+44 (0)20 7029 8593 I ademetriou@jefferies.comMiruna Chirea * IEquity Associate+44 (0)20 7029 8336 1mchirea@jefferies.comTheo Massing ^ IEquity Associate+33 18665 6306 I tmassing@jefferies.comPriya Rathod * IEquity Associate+44 (0) 20 7029 8020 I prathod@jefferies.com JefferiesValuation & Perf in contextExhibit 2 - SX7P P/E (current year) over the last 20Y2018PESource: Jefferies, FacExhibit 4 - Relative Perf of SX7P vs. SXXP in total return (in %)25%20%19%15%10%9%5%0%5%10%-15%20%-19%25%-21%21%%vs current price100%80%40%60%B0%Please see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 17 of this report. Avg---+1SD0%7%6%-10%-15%15%S4号Long view upside % Source: Jefferies, FactExhibit 5 - RoE of the sector (SX7P) since 2008 (in %)151313+ JEF PT vs current price % JefferiesExhibit 7 -European Banks'market implied cost of equity (%)25%18.5%16.5%14.5%SHB10.5%8.5%→ UniCaja6.5%%0°610.0%Source: Company Reports, Factset estimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 17 of this report.This report is intende JefferiesCapital return to shareholdersExhibit 8 - Capital return to shareholders for 2024-26 (dividends & buybacks) in % of market cap50%40%%830%20%10%0%Exhibit 9 - Capital return to shareholders for 2024-26 (dividends only) in % of market cap35%30% 30% 29%30%25%20%15%109Exhibit 10 - Capital return to shareholders for 2024-26 (buybacks only) in % of market cap20%19%18%17%16%15% 14%14%13%13%12%12%10%8%6%4%Source: Jefferies, Factset, Company dataPlease see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 17 of this report. 8% 8%8%ution is prohibited JefferiesSector is growing tangible book value & reducingshare count (the latter has only really started inearnest)...Exhibit 11 - Sector Tangible Book value vs sharecount (m).50Exhibit 13 - Sharecount reduction CAGR by bank (%)Please see important disclosure information on pages 10 -17 of this report. Exhibit 12 - Breakdown of the sector TBV/Share growth (CAGR '24-26e)250,000240,0006%5%230,000%t%200,000%2%Exhibit 14 - TBV/Share CAGR '24-26e by bank (%)s prohibited JefferiesMacro forecastsExhibit 15 -Real GDP growth (% YoY)3.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.02024e-0.50.20GermanyFranceItalySpainEuroZoneExhibit 17 - 2025e Real GDP growth by country (% YoY)2025e Real GDP growth (YoY)3.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.0Exhibit 19 -Consensus Unemployment rate (%)12.0010.008.006.004.002.000.002024eGermanySource: Jefferies, FactsetPlease see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 17 of this report. Italy JefferiesSummary of Yield CurvesExhibit 21 -EU Bond Yield curve4.50%4.00%3.50%3.00%2.50%2.00%1.50%1M3MCurrentSource: Jefferies, FactsetExhibit 23 - UK Treasury Yield curve5.50%5.00%4.50%4.00%3.50%1M3MCurrentSource: Jefferies, FactsetExhibit 25 - Mexico - Yield Curve12.00%11.50%11.00%10.50%10.00%9.50%%00'68.50%8.00%7.50%1M3MCurrentSource: Jefferies, FactsetPlease see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 17 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited 6M1Y2Y3Y1M ago1Q ago6M7y2Y3Y1M ago1Q ago6M1Y2Y3Y1M ago1Q ago Source: Jefferies, FactsetExhibit 26 - Brazil - Yield Curve16.00%15.00%14.00%13.00%12.00%11.00%10.00%9.00%8.00%1M3MCurrentSource: Jefferies, Factset JefferiesConsensus trackerExhibit 27-Evolution of consensus SX7P EPS since 2024383634323028264N2NFY-24Source: Jefferies, FExhibit 29 - Consensus sector PBT Bridge over 2024-2026e265260255250245240250235230PBT'24Source: Jefferies, Visible AlphaPlease see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 17 of this report.This report is intended forJefferies clients only. Unauthorized distril FY-25 JefferiesExhibit 30 - EMEA Banks Return vs Changes in EPS estimatesNameIndicesSXXPBanksNational Bank of GreecePiraeus BankOnesSavingsBankStandard CharteredDeutsche BankAmundiINGBarclaysBanco SabadellSocGenABNAmroNatWest GroupBanco SantanderDanskeAlphaBankIntesaUniCajaBank of IrelandESABankinter.spAonSwedbankBMPSCaixabankAllied Irish BanksSHBBCPMediobancaSource: Jefferies, FactsetPlease see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 17 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. JefferiesCompany Valuation/RisksFor Important Disclosure information on companies recommended in this report, please visit our website at https://javatar.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action or call 212.284.230