零售与奢侈品周报

IndustryGeneral Retail &Luxury WeeklyeC AdamCochraneResearch Analyst+44-20-754-17812Alison LygoResearch Analyst+44-20-754-11724Benjamin Yokyong-ZoegaResearch Analyst+44-20-754-12338Do-Hyun YooResearch Associate+44-20-754-19487Shwetha RamachandranResearch Associate 11July2025Retail - Non FoodGeneral Retail & Luxury WeeklyTop investor questionsDoes LVMH offer the best opportunity for the potential upswing in Luxury?1H is likely to be the trough for the luxury sector cFX sales growth in our view witheasiercomparativesin2HsettoseeamovebacktopositivecFXsalesforthesectorFor LVMH we still forecast negative cFX sales for F&L which provides a greateropportunity for positive earnings momentum compared to some of the morefavoured names in the sector such as Hermes and Richemont. The valuation atbelow20xCal26PEappearsmorecompellingthanmostoftheluxurysectorwhichoffers both earnings and valuation momentum over the next 6-12 months. There arestill somepotentialissuesthathavetoberesolvedespeciallyinWinesandSpiritsgiven cognac weakness and current weakness in Dior and some of the smallerfashion brands. A number of management and creative director changes have beenannounced which should start to benefit both sales and cost management lookingforward.Does the delay in the Demna fashion show to March mean anything?It appears that Demna was not able to get the fashion show to his satisfaction bySeptemberbutwillinsteadfocusonaMarchlaunch.Thereisstillexpectedtobealimitedcollectionof"buyitnow"piecesfromtheSeptembershowthatwill beinstores in 4Q but it now feels less Demna inspired than previously. In our view givencompleted by him), we thought he may be able to be working on the Gucci visionatthesametimebutthisdoesn'tappeartobethecase.WithanewCEOarrivinginmid Septemberitmay be that we see a glimpse of what Demna can do in Septemberand if it is not well received by consumers and press then this could instigatefurtherchanges by the new CEO (who did not participate in the Demna appointment). It isa good question for investors whether a new creative agpointing for Gucci would bea good thing given a further delay in the change in créative direction.What do the weak Pou Sheng sales for J@ne mean for adidas?The Pou Sheng sales in China Aeredown -16.4% in June and-8.3%YTD which isverydifferentfrom the DDalas growth we are expecting for adidas.Pou Shengsales across a number of partners but we don't see this a relevant read into theadidas outlook at this stage. We still see adidas as offering the potential for aguidance beat and raise with its 1H results although management may want moreclarity on tariffs before they upgrade the FY guidance.Is there any readacross for Douglas from the Ulta Beauty acquisition of SpaceNK?Ulta reported that it has purchased UK based Space NK for an undisclosed sum(with Sky News reporting at least f300m) which will give it a footprintin the UK. Ultadoes not currently operate in Europe and Douglas does not operate in the UK but itmay suggest either: (1) More incremental competition may be coming to Europe atsome stage from Ulta; (2) If Ulta does want to expand into Europe organically it maylook at Douglas as a potential route to achieve this; or (3) The Space NK brand ismore premium and offers Ulta the opportunity to add more authenticity to itspremium offerin the Us. There has been no interest reported in Douglas atthis stagebyUlta(oranyoneelse)butifUltawantedacomprehensivefootprintinEuropeitmay make some sense. Trading on c.6x Cal 25 PE it is hard to argue there is muchin the Douglas valuation at this stage.Page 2 5 11July2025Retail - Non FoodGeneral Retail & Luxury WeeklyThree weeks aheadB&M- 1Q26 - 15 JulyB&M is set to report its 1Q26 (Apr-Jun) sales and we expect UK LFLgrowthof+3%(Cons +2.7%) tof,1,165m (Consf1,149m) on the backagainst weak comps (1Q25-5.1%). We forecast Heron Foods to grow by -2% to f139m (Cons f140m) andFrance by +2% to f139m (Cons f136m) giving Group sales of f1,443m (Consf1,426m).We expect group FY26E EBITDAof f623m delivering a +10.5% margin.Merchandise driven by new store contributions, supply chain enhancements andtargeted in-store actions; (2) How much of the LFL improvement is driven byweather and general merchandise rather than FMCG; (3) Has there been anyincrease in the Average Transaction Value (ATV) overthe quarter? (4) Anypositiveoutlook for gross margin given weaker UsD and cheaper Chinese factory gatepricing:(5)NewCEOcommentsonplanstoturnaroundFMCGperformanceRichemont - 1Q26 Sales - 16 JulyWe forecast Richemont to post 1Q sales of 5,398, a 2.5% increase driven by 5%cFX growth (cons +6%). Jewellery is expected to continue to drive group cFXgrowth at 8% (cons +9%), whilst Watches declines, albeit at a lower rate of -6% vs.-11% in 4Q25 (cons -7%). Regionally, we are expecting APAC-1% cFX, Europe +7%cFX, Americas +7% and Japan +3%.Key debates: (1) Any commentary on price increases related to US tariffs or goldpricing pressure; (2) How the US customer has evolved over the perio