欧洲化学品复合报告

s ec 9 Charlie Bentley * IEquity Analyst44 (0)20 7548 4405 I cbentley@jefferies.comMarcus Dunford-Castro * IEquity Analyst+44 (0)20 7548 4741 I mdunfordcastro@jefferies.comHelena Xu * [Equity Associate+44 (0)20 7548 4146 I helena.xu@jefferies.com Company & Share Price OverviewExhibit 2 - Company OverviewewGBPWacker ChemieAlpha, FacExhibit 3 - Share Price PerformanceLocal ccEvorSAGClariant AGYaraSolvavSANovonesiGCOCINVUmicorePlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this reports prohibited. JefferiesKey Stock CallsBuyDSM-Firmenich: (1) Transition to Nutrition-focused portfolio; (2) :divestment of the Animal Nutrition business reduces commodityexposure; and (3) ample opportunities for improvement acrossworking capital and operating marginsNovonesis:(1)Best-in-classoperatingIngredients at 7% organic growth, with best-in-class margins; (2)cheap valuation vs. peer P/E and FCF yield multiples; (3) growthsupported by structural tailwinds, specifically in BioenergyAir Liquide: (1) Net pricing vs inflation has been a significantcontributor to earnings and margin expansion and pricing outlookremains firm; (2) our previous preference for consumer over gasesshould switch into 2025, with Air Liquide's top- and bottom-lineprogression improving whilst consumer moderates; (3) trades at adiscount to consumer names on an EV/EBITDA and PEG basis.Kerry: (1) Volume step-up in FY25, due to customer innovationand promotion activity, with mid-term food regulation reformulationtailwinds; (2) portfolio overhang removed by Dairy Ireland, next steplikely transparency around T&N, helping benchmark vs. peers; (3)improving shareholder returns with consistent buybacks and reducedsignificance of M&A as capital allocation.Croda: (1) LS earnings de-risked from COVID-related revenue roll-offas non-COVID applications already larger than COVID applications'23; (2) defensive end-market exposure from Ag and Pharma,Iberchem synergies to offset potential end-market weakness inConsumer Care.Umicore: (1) PGM prices provide support while Automotive Catalystrisks remain contained (2) only modest Battery Materials delivery isneeded to provide upside, industry consolidation a plausible solution:to improve utilization rates and returns.quality greater than peers (2) moving from a heavy investment phaseto a FcF harvest phase, with ample financial headroom for additionalreturns to shareholders (on top of its existing share buyback)Wacker Chemie: (1) Trade restrictions limiting the supply of Chinasolar cells, which effectively blocks Chinese supply out of the marketand suggests non-Chinese poly prices could remain high; (2) valuingpolysilicon at O, at mid-cycle chemicals margins trade at a discountto historical levels.JMAT: (1) FCF generation from Clean Air able to underpin significantshareholder returns; (2) significant growth opportunities in hydrogenbusiness; (3) activist investor supports capital returns.ocl: (1) Catalysts from deal closure + further strategic reviewupdates, including divestments.Please see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report. UnderperformLanxess: (1) Financial leverage too high; (2) underperforming vspeers despite portfolio upgrades; (3) divestment of assets unlikely toprovide meaningful support.Solvay: (1) Overearning relative to mid-cycle likely to normalise; (2)leverage with expensive decarbonisation CapEx and high dividendpayout ratio; (3) trading at a premium to other commodity chemicals.Symrise: (1) FY25 end-market volumes challenged for largercustomers, expect modest weakening in demand in H2 implyingdowngrade risk for its topline outlook (2) average group OSG towardorganic growth (3) greater doubt around execution of its marginimprovement potential with concerns on trade-offs with OsGGivaudan: (1) Growth opportunities more limited than those of itspeers; (2) pricing power being put to the test (more so than peers)opportunities on a strategic level.Yara: (1) N industry profit pool reduced by lower gas px; (2) specialtiesspreads under pressure as EU peers are economical (Yara tilted mixto specialties in FY22): (3) asset exposure structurally unfavourable-60%ammonia in Europe.Evonik: (1) Lower 2025 earnings progression relative to the broaderchemicals space with a methionine and performance materialsheadwind, weakening S/D balance, and limited ramp-up vs peers; (2)cost savings and lower energy price improvements limited by startingpoint ahead of peers; (3) volume growth typically lags diversifiedpeers.Brenntag: (1) compression of the global chemicals cost curve likelyto impede ability to generate earnings from cross-regional sourcing(2) expecting gaps to peers to remain with continued cash outflowoverhang and questionable earnings improvement potentialK+s: (1) Pricing momentum proven challenging despite strongvolume growth, with main concern of the supply side responding withvolumes and disappointing demand side; (2) BHP's Jansen projectvolumes (coming through from late 2026) p