德国工业：艰难的复苏伴随着一些'大前提'

EconomicsGermanyStefanSchilbeChief Economist,GermanyHSBC Continental Europe SA, Germanystefan.schilbe@hsbc.de+49 211 910 3137Anja Sabine HeimannHSBC Bank plcanja.sabine.heimann@hsbc.com+44 7387 247457HSBC Global Investment Research PodcastsListen to our insightsFind out moreIssuer of report: HSBC Bank plcView HSBC Global Research at:https:/www.research.hsbc.com German industry has suffered badly..1. Industrial output is way below the 2018-peak,let alone the long-term trendIndexIndustrial productionIndex115115110110105105100100959590908585808075,7570701995200020052010201520202025Trend 1993 - 2018 IndexSource: Macrobond, HSBC3. Consequently, capacity utilisation rates arelow...%Germany: Capacity Utilisation%95 T95909085-8580 -80We70+70微656560-602006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026Total-Intermediate Goods-Consumer Goods -Capital GoodsSource: Macrobond, HSBC5.Demand and output has improved a bit...% YearIndustrial production (3MMAV)% Year40203015201010+AN0W10-5-2010-30-15-40-2050--25200020052010201520202025-New Orders (LHS)-Industrial production (RHS)Source: Macrobond, HSBC Source: Macrobond, HSBC6. ..partly reflecting restocking activityRatioGermany: Manufacturing PMI2.00 T1.751.501.251.000.750.500.25 -2010 20122014 2016 20182020 20222024Source: Macrobond, HSBC ...and the recent recovery has been uneven..7. Export expectations are subdued due to tariff8. ...and order books are assessed as beingthreats..unfavourable% y-0-yGermany: ExportsBalanceIndex404040303030 -20202010 -1010-10+020-10-1030-20 --2040-50 -30,-30-604070 -2012 2014 2016 20182020 2022 2024 20261980198519901995200020052010201520202025-Ifo export expectations for the next 3 months (RHS)-Assessment of Export Order-Book Levels-German exports (LHS)Assessment of Order-Book LevelsSource: Macrobond, HSBCSource: Macrobond, HSBC9. Domestic orders underperforming foreign10. Car demand has started to slowly improve...demandIndexGermany: New industrial orders (3MMAV)IndexIndex,1201202017=100115115120110-110110105-10510090100+1008095957090906085855080 -80407575307070202016201820202022202410-New Orders Foreign -New Orders Domestic-New Orders TotalSource: Macrobond, HSBCSource: Macrobond, HSBC11. ..as have orders for investment goods12. The energy-intensive industries stillsuffering badly from high energy costs...% YearGermany: Business fixed investment% YearIndex60 16011550 -501104040303010520 -10020101095-00-10+90-20-2085-30--308040+20102012201420162018202020222024202675-Domestic capital goods orders (3MMAV, lag 3m)1995200020052010201520202025Machinery and equipment goods orders (3MMAV, lag 3m)-Index of manufacturing for energy intensive sectorsSource: Macrobond, HSBCSource: Macrobond, HSBC Germany: Energy intensive production ..and littered with plenty of risks13. ...with demand in the chemical sector nowthe lowest since the GFCIndex,Germany: Chemical IndustryIndex,2020=1002020=10012012011511511011010510510010095-90858075701995200020052010201520202025Production -New OrdersSource: Macrobond, HSBC15. Leading indicators have turned upBalanceGermany Leading IndicatorsIndex403020100M-10-20-30 -40+1020052010201520202025-ifo production expectations (LHS)-PMI Manufacturing Output (RHS)Source: Macrobond, HSBC17. Rhine water levels are unusually low, whichcould threaten industrial output..cmGermany: Rhine water levels at Kaubcm500r500450400-350300250200 -1501005052022 -2025 -Mean =Percentile [25-75]Source: Macrobond, HSBC Source: Macrobond, HSBC18. ...and push up freight ratesEUR/Metric Ton300250200150+1005020182019202020212022202320242025Rhine Gasoil Barge Rate Basle (EUR)Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond, HSBC Disclosure appendixAnalyst CertificationThe following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and any otherviewsorforecasts expressedherein,including anyviews expressedonthe backpage ofthe researchreport,accuratelyreflectrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Stefan Schilbe and Anja Sabine HeimannImportant disclosuresThis document has been prepared and is being distributed by the Research Department of HSBC and is intended solely for theclients of HSBC and is not for publication to other persons, whether through the press or by other means.This document is for information purposes only and it should not be regarded as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer tobuy the securities or other investment products mentioned in it and/or to participate in any trading strategy. Advice in this documentis general and should not be construed as personal advice, given it has been