中国太阳能玻璃行业：盈利艰难但预期改善

EquitiesElectric UtilitiesChinaEvan Li*Head, Asia Energy Transition ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedevan.m.h.li@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6619Shayla Xu*Associate,Asia EnergyTransitionThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedshayla.b.xu@hsbc.com.hk+852 2288 7378Daniel Yang*Analyst, Asia Energy TransitionThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limiteddaniel.h.yang@hsbc.com.hk+85229966976*Employed by a non-US afliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsHSBC in Extel Survey 2025Thank you for your supportSee resultsPEPB_25E26E25E11.1x0.8x18.4x1.1x32.6x1.9x9.7x0.8xIssuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation LimitedViewHSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Up/Downside Market capUSDm47.9%3,28430.2%5,13531.9%5,135-5.1%1,462 Dividend yield (%)26E25E26E41.8x0.8x1.0%4.3%378.2x1.0x0.0%1.6%668.5x1.8x0.0%0.9%11.0x0.8x4.0%4.5% 1H25 results previewExhibit 1: Summary of key assumptionsFlat GlassSolar glass nominal production capacity (tpd)Solar glass shipment volume (mn sqm)2.0mm solar glass ASP (RMB/sqm, excl. VAT)2.0mm solar glass unit cost (RMB/Sqm)Solar glass GPM (%)Net profit (RMB mn)Xinyi SolarSolar glass nominal production capacity (tpd)Solar glass shipment volume (mn sqm)2.0mm solar glass ASP (RMB/sqm, excl. VAT)2.0mm solar glass unit cost (RMB/Sqm)Solar glass GPM (%)Net profit (RMB mn)Source: HSBC estimatesExhibit 2: Monthly solar glass production and module demand70.060.050.0_40.030.020.010. ℃cs微信Supply: Effective monthly productionSource: PV Infolink, SMM, SCI99, HSBC estimatesExhibit 3: Solar glass average inventory days and AsP353015Inventory level (RHS)Source: SCI99 Estimates revisionsFlat GlassWe cut our 2025-27e ASP assumptions by 3-11%, to reflect lower market pricing andexpectations of weaker demand in China into 2H25.We cut our 2025-27e solar glass sales volume assumptions by 6%-13% to reflect delays ofnew capacity and expectations of further supply cuts in 2025.We also assume asset impairments of RMB100m for 2025e as we expect additionalimpairments for furnaces under cold maintenance.Following the above-mentioned changes, we lower our 2025-27e earnings estimates by 30-103%.In our DCF valuation, we lower our WACC assumption to 8.8% (from 9.4%), as we reviseour assumption of risk-free rate to 4.25% (from 3.75%) and equity risk premium to 4.75%(from 5.75%) in line with our equity strategy team's assumptions. Our A-share target price isconverted from our H-share target price based on our end-2025e RMB-HKD rate of 1.10(previously 1.05) in line with HSBC FX Strategists' latest forecasts.c30%/32% upside from current levels. We maintain our Buy ratings on FGG-H/Aaccordingly.FGG: Estimates revisionsRMBmRevenueNewYoY (%)pIO% changeNet profitNewYo (%)pIo% changeConsensus% differenceRecurring net profitNewYoY (%)pIOSource:Bloomberg conenusHSBCestimatesXinyi SolarWe cut our 2025-27e AsP assumptions by 3-10%, to reflect lower market pricing andexpectationsofweakerdemandinChinainto2H25.We cut our 2025-27e solar glass sales volume assumptions by 11% to reflect delays of newcapacity and expectations of further supply cuts in 2025.We also assume asset impairments of RMB100m for 2025e as we expect additionalimpairments for furnaces under cold maintenance.business investment in the March quarter, along with higher surveyed investment intentions in the JuneWe also assume that the polysilicon manufacturing business would not come on line in2025-27(previously,weassumedtrialoperationby2026)undercurrentmarketconditions.We expect XYs to seek disposal of this business segment when appropriate.We incorporate the latest earnings assumptions for Xinyi Energy. 2025e2026e15,62619,759-16%A consensus decision to hold attgdygs meeting stands in contrast to the RBNZ's last meeting, where the17,85622,962-12%-14%(40)1,234-104%-3182%1,3172,166-103%-43%8771,532-105%-19%601,234-95%1957%1,317Disclosures & Disclaimer: This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the 2027e23,715decision was taken to a 5-to-1 Vote tbut versus hold. As we noted at that time, the fact a vote was held26,235-10%1,79345%2,5792,234-20%1,793- The RBNZ held its cash rate steady, at 3.25%, at its July meeting (as expected by 19 of 23 participants2,5793 Following the above-mentioned changes, we lower our 2025-27e earnings estimatesby 32-76%.We continue to use SOTP valuation method to value XYS. In our DCF valuation for solarglass, we lower our WACC assumption to 8.8% (from 9.4%), as we revise our assumptionof risk-free rate to 4.25% (from 3.75%) and equity risk premium to 4.75% (from 5.75%) inline with our equity strategy team's assumptions. We also lower WACC assumption forsolarfarmbusiness ex-XYEto7.6%(from8.1%),aswe reviseourassumptionof risk-freerateto4.25%(from3.75%)and equity risk premium to 4.75% (from 5.75%).We use anend-2025e RMB-HKD rate of 1.10 (1.05) in line with HSBC FX Strategists latest for