政策利好应推动中国快递行业重新评级

EquitiesAir Freight & LogisticsChinaParash Jain*Global Head of Transport & Logistics ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedparashjain@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6717David Wu* (Reg. No. S1700518110001)Head, A-shareTransportation & Logistics ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limiteddavid.wu@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 21 5066 2002Deepak Maurya*, CFAAnalyst, Asia Transportdeepakmaurya@hsbc.com.hk+85228224292Bruce Chu*, CFAAssociate,AsiaTransporThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedbruce.y.h.chu@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6621Cathy Huang*, CFAAssociate,AsiaTransportThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedcathy.m.y.huang@hsbc.com.hk+8522996 4506Kevin Li*AssociateGuangzhou* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsHesitant bulls of summerThe 20th edition of the EM Sentiment SurveyClick to viewIssuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation LimitedViewHSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Key chartsExhibit 2. China express sector price performance140price competition at below cost1201008060Price hikes in Sep 2021after government called toprotect couriers in Jul 202140Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 May-22 Sep-22 Jan-23 May-23 Sep-23 Jan-24 May-24 Sep-24 Jan-25 May-25Source: LSEG DataStream. Note: data as of 9 July 2025.Exhibit 3. ZTO vs A-share Tongda operators"consensus 12-month tbrward PE40xe35xCA. 30S15x10x5x0x +88092022223445OIZSource: LSEG Datastream. Data as of 9 July 2025.Exhibit 5. ZTO has the highest marketshare among its peers as of 1Q2545%40%ZTO's Tongda peers had a35%cumulative 41% market30%25%20%15%10%19%5%0%ZTO■ZTOSource: Company data, SPB. Source: LSEG Datastream. Data as of 9 July 2025.Exhibit 6. ZTO's EV is higher than itspeers' cumulative EV (in USDbn)1614ZTO's Tongda peershad a cumulative EV12ofjust USD12bn1086201ZOIZYTO■STOSource: LSEG Datastream. shareYTOSTO Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 9 July 2025Exhibit 12. ZTO: Consensus 2026 recurringEPS estimate revisions292723211915ZTO Share Price (USD)Consensus 2026e Recurring EPS (RMB, RH)Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 9 July 2025 Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 9 July 2025Exhibit 11. ZTO: Consensus 2026 EBITestimate revisions2927252321191715ZTO Share Price (USD)Consensus 2026e EBIT (RMBm, RH)Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 9 July 2025 ZTO Express (ZTO US, Buy, TP USD22.00)Exhibit13.ZTO:Earningsforecasts(2025-27e)2025eParcel volume (milion)41,146ASP (RMB/parcel)1.20Unit cost (RMB/parcel)0.85Growth assumptionsParcel volume21.0%ASP (RMB/parcel)-6.0%Unit cost (RMB/parcel)-3.1%Financials (RMBm)Revenue50,485EBITDA16,236Adjusted EBIT12,903HSBC adjusted PBT13,531ZTO reported adjusted PAT10,931HSBC adjusted net profit10,782HSBC EPS (RMB)12.90Capex5,500FCF equity7,050RatioEBIT margin (%)25.6%EBIT per parcel (RMB)0.31ROE (%)16.7%Source: HSBC estimatesReported PBT (RMBm)Recurring profit (RMBm)HSBc Consensusvs ConsensusHSBCConsensusvs Consensus2%13,21313,1221%10,78210,255-1%14,52314,843-2%11,83211,529-3%15,84316,645-5%12,89612,929Exhibit 15. ZTo Express 12-month forward PE35.0x30.0x25.0x19,6x20.0x15.0x10.0x5.0xConsensus 12-month forward PEAverage since end-2016Source: LSEG Datastream. Data as of 9 July 2025. J&T Express (1519 HK, Buy, TP HKD9.00)Exhibit16.J&T:Earningsforecasts(2025-27e)2025eParcel volume (m)31,090ASP (USD/parcel)0.39Unit cost (USD /parcel)0.34GrowthassumptionsParcel volume26.1%ASP (USD /parcel)-5.4%Unit cost (USD /parcel)-8.5%Financials (USDm)Revenue12,224EBITDA1,107Adjusted EBIT616HSBC adjusted PBT539J&T reported adjusted PAT435HSBC adjusted net profit409HSBC EPS (US cents)4.38Capex587RatioEBIT margin (%)5.0%EBIT per parcel (US cents)1.98ROE (%)13.3%Source: HSBC estimatesExhibit 17. HSBC estimates vs consensusRevenueEBITDA(USDm)HSBC Consensus vs. Consensus HSBC Consensus vs. Consensus2025e12,22411,9322% 1,1071,0642026e14,04013,5853% 1,4531,3362027e15,88115,1935% 1,6701,644Source: Visible Apha, HSBC estimatesExhibit18.J&TExpress12-monthforwardEV/EBITDA10Consensus 12m-fwd EV/EBITDA42忆记忆记记忆ZTOYTOSTOSource: LSEG Datastream. Data as of 9 July 2025. Valuation and risksJ&T GlobalCurrent price:ExpressHKD8.391519HKTarget price:HKD9.00HoldUp/downside:+7.3%Current price:USD17.70ZTO USTarget price:USD22.00BuyUp/downside:+24.3%STO ExpressCurrent price:002468 CHRMB11.00Target price:RMB14.10BuyUp/downside:+28.2%Source: Bloomberg, HSBC estimates. Priced at close of 9 July 2025.*Employed by a non-US afliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. and not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations RisksUpside risks:+ Limited insourcing of e-commerce delivery by e-commerce platforms as 3PLs gain price and executionadvantages could alleviate market concerns on furtherloss of share;+ Successful replication of its sponsor model in newmarkets could help improve growth visibility and thusdrive a re-rating:+ Easing competition in key regions such as China andSoutheast Asia could alleviate concems on its revenuegrowth and profitability.Do