中国芯片封装行业2Q25放缓，3Q25重新加速

EquitiesElectronic Equipment &InstrumentsChinaBingyi Zheng*(Reg.No.S1700521060001)Analyst, A-share Technology HardwareHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedbingyi.zheng@hsbcqh.com.cn+862150662028Frank He* (Reg. No. S1700517120005)Head of A-share Technology Hardware ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedfrank.fang.he@hsbcqh.com.cn+862150662009*Employed by a non-US afiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsHesitant bulls of summerThe 20th edition of the EM Sentiment SurveyClick to viewPE (x) PB (x)2026e EPS2026e2026eWind ConsensusHSBC Est DiffS121.560.91Issuer of report: HSBC Qianhai Securities LimitedView HSBC Qianhai Securities at:https:/www.research.hsbc.com Net Profit CAGR2025-27e33% 1.560%0.910% Focus chartsExhibit 1. Taiwan OSATs' monthly sales showed flat growth in 2Q25 versus globalsemiconductor monthly sales continuing on an uptrend50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%20%30%Source: Wind, SIA, HSBC Qianhai SecuritiesExhibit 2. Mainland China's OSATaggregated revenue growth outpaced theglobalsemiconductorsectorin1Q2540%30%20%10%0%-10%20%Mainland China OSAT revenue aggregationExhibit 4. JCET planned a historic highcapexofRMB8.5bnin202510,000-(RMBm)8,0006,0004,0002,00020212022PlanSource: Company data, HSBC Qianhai Securities Source: Wind, HSBC Qianhai SecuritiesExhibit 5. Tongfu planned RMB6bn ofcapex, with RMB3.5bn in JV facilities8,000- (RMBm)6,0004,0002,00020212022PlanSource: Company data, HSBC Qianhai Securities Source: Company data, HSBC Qianhai SecuritiesNet IncomeCAGRPEGPB (x)EV/EBITDA ROE (%)2027e2025-27e2026e2026e36%31%33%0.837%30%33%0.629%40%34%0.829%22%26%1.342%38%40%0.835%32%33%0.9 JCET (600584 CH,RMB33.55,Buy,TPRMB46.80)JCET has consolidated Shanghai SanDisk's financials since 4Q24. Therefore, the company'srevenue from computation increased rapidly by 108% y-0-y in 4Q24 and 93% y-0-y in 1Q25. Weestimate this asset will contribute 8% to JCET's revenue in 2025-27e.In2Q25,sincesomedomesticcustomersshiftedtheirpackagingordersof16nm/14nmandbelow chips to Taiwanese peers, which we estimate collectively accounts for c5% of JCET'stotal revenue, we expect the company's revenue growth to slow to 19% y-o-y from 36% in1Q25. However, entering 3Q25e, we are still bullish on its growth, as we believe the ongoinggovernmentsubsidypolicyand innovativeAl-powered newproductswillsupporttheconsumerelectronics demand recovery. According to the company, advanced packaging, automotive andpower semiconductors will the focus of its R&D investment.Exhibit 9. JCET's revenue breakdown byExhibit 10. JCET's communication revenueapplicationgrowth100%1,600%06Automotive1,40080%1,20070%Industrials &1,000healthcares60%00850%Computation60040%40030%Consumer electronics20020%(excl. smartphone)10%Communication&ASE (ATM)ASE (EMS)0%smartphone20212022202320241Q25Communication revenue (USD m) - 1Q24 (LHS)-0-y (RHS)Source: Company data, HSBC Qianhai SecuritiesSource: Company data, HSBC Qianhai SecuritiesEstimate changesExhibit11.JCET'sestimatechanges2025e(RMB m)PIONewChangepIORevenueCommunication & smartphone16,81817,1332%18,368Consumer electronics (excl. smartphone)9,6708,629-11%10,240Computation9,2509,083-2%10,103Industrials &healthcare2,6072,8078%2,847Automotive3,7003,6332%4,363Total revenue42,04441,285-2%45,921GPM14.5%13.7%-0.8ppt15.1%Gross profit6,1125,664-7%6,923Total operating expense(3,329)(3,563)7%(3,429)Net income2,4302,041-16%3,083EPS (RMB)1.361.14-16%1.72Source: HSBC Qianhai Securities estimates. Note: We introduce our 2027e estimates.We lower our 2025e revenue estimate by 2% to reflect 16nm/14nm and below customers shiftingtheir orders away. However, we raise our 2026e revenue estimate by 2%, based on: (1) 7% highercommunication segment revenue as we see content value growth opportunities of the company'sSiP in key customers' foldable phones; and (2) a 7% higher industrial and healthcare segmentrevenue as we believe the company is benefiting from foreign customers' aggressively adopting the"China-for-China" strategy. However, we raise our 2025-26e opex estimates, as the company isintegrating Shanghai SanDisk's business, resulting in an increase in administration expenses. Inaddition, we expect that the company will increase R&D investment in high-end advanceddemand.Therefore,welowerour2025-26enetprofit estimatesby16%and9%,respectively.Weintroduce our 2027e net profit estimate, which is 6% above Wind consensus. We think the market isunderestimating JCET's content value growth potential in key customers' foldable phone models. 30%20%10%0%10%AmkorJCET2026e2027eNewChangeNew19,6677%21,2229,365-9%10,48310,3022%11,2503,0447%3,3244,4492%4,85846,8272%51,13714.4%-0.7ppt15.1%6,737-3%7,723(3,892)14%(4,065)2,795-9%3,6271.56-9%2.03 ValuationJCET's share price has corrected 18% YTD, underperforming CSI 300's 2% gain YTD, and istrading at a 21.5x 2026e PE multiple and a 1.9x 2026e PB multiple, below the average PE multipleof 28.3x and the average PB multiple of 2.5x of the A-share OSAT sector, wh