H2季度预览、催化剂及未来问题的想法汇总

EquitiesLife Sciences & HealthcareDeveloped MarketsRajesh KumarHead, European Life Sciences &Healthcare ResearchHSBC Bank plc+44 20 7991 1629MortenHerholdt*Analyst, Life Sciences&HealthcareResearchHSBC Bank plcmorten.herholdt@hsbc.com+4420 7992 4082Sidharth SahooAnalyst, Life Sciences & Healthcare ResearchHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) PrivateLimitedsidharth.sahoo@hsbc.co.in+91 77 3813 4135Yifeng Liu*Analyst, Life ScienceeResearchHSBC Bank plcyifeng.liu@hsbc.com+44 20 7 9919355Shubhangi Gupta*, Ph.DAnalyst, Life Sciences &Healthcare Researchand Capital Markets (India) PrivateLimitecshubhangi.gupta@hsbc.co.in+91 80 4555 2143Yessica Sanchez*&HealthcareResearchHSBC Mexico, S.A., Institucion de Banca Multiple, GrupoFinanciero HSBCsica.sanchez@hsbc.com.mx+555285517904Akshata Agarwal*AssociateBangalorenot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsHSBC Global Investment Research PodcastsListen to our insightsFind out moreIssuer of report: HSBC Bank plcView HSBC Global Research at:https:/www.research.hsbc.com Research summary: Ratings, numbers, and ideasSector ideas in bucketsKey ideasQuality GrowthGrowth atFallen AngelsValue/Value TrapsSelf HelplAstraZeneca - Buyreasonable priceNovo Nordisk - BuyMerck & Co - BuyTurnaroundEli Lilly - ReducePreferred PlayGSK-ReduceBayer-BuyAbbvie - BuyPfizer - BuyJohnson & Johnson- BuyBrave PlaySanofi - BuyNovartis - ReduceSource: HSBC Global Investment ResearchFor the stocks under our coverage, we use five buckets - quality growth, growth at a reasonable price, fallen angels, value/value traps, and self-help / turnaround - to identify ourpreferred stocks.Quality growthOur 'quality growth' bucket of ideas comprises stocks for which we think the growth engine is reliable and offers compounding potential.AstraZeneca (AzN LN, Buy, TP 12,ooop): We outline three key reasons to buy AstraZeneca: 1) upgrade cycle as consensus closes in on company targets of USD80bn revenueby 2030, 2) manageable LOE profile, and 3) a diversified portfolio across multiple therapy areas, ranging across cardiovascular/obesity, rare disease, and oncology.Eli Lilly (LLY US, Reduce, TP USD675.00): At the current valuation multiples, we think the market is underestimating the risk of competition from Cagrisema and any potentialOrforglipron hiccup. The market share debate is disproportionately in favour of Eli Lilly vs Novo Nordisk, in our view. Growth at a reasonable priceOur 'growth at a reasonable price' bucket of ideas comprises stocks that not only offer growth but are trading at a relatively lower valuation.AbbVie (ABBV US, Buy, TP USD205.00) - a preferred play: We find AbbVie's investment case relatively attractive given: 1) pipeline potential, driven by balance sheetJohnson & Johnson (JNJ US, Buy, TP USD180.o0) - a preferred play: We like JNJ given its: 1) fast-growing oncology portfolio from R&D investments over the past five years;and 2) large, diversified exposure with balance sheet capacity.Sanofi (SAN FP, Buy, TP EUR115.00) - a brave play. We like Sanofi given: 1) its relatively lower loss of exclusivity (LOE) profile, which offers growth visibility; 2) strong balancesheet, giving it the opportunity to be a partner of choice for innovative Biotechs looking for deal making; and 3) a clear strategy to develop next generation autoimmune assetsNovartis (NOvN SW, Reduce, TP CHF 78.oo) - a brave play: We think the guidance for LOE impacts for Novartis has been conservative, implying risk of a downside marginFallen angelsOur “fallen angels" bucket comprises once considered quality growth stocks, but which have derated significantly and where we think the market is missing some key points.Novo Nordisk (NovoB DC, Buy, DKK680.00): We like Novo as we argue, 1) Cagrisema growth potential is over discounted, 2) industry-leading growth is significantlyValue / value trapsCompanies with lower valuation multiples are inthe'valuebucket'.However,we include a'value trap'segmentto coverthose companiesthat may seem attractivebecause of acheaper multiple, but where the cheaper multiples reflect underlying negatives.factored in, but the potential for upside less so.oncology are too small to make a difference, 2) limited visibility on vaccines, and 3) management's target of keeping margins flat in HiV may prove challenging.Self-help/turnaroundPfizer (PFE US, Buy, UsD28.o00): We like Pfizer given 1) an attractive oncology pipeline, 2) growth potential of the Seagen portfolio, and 3) de-gearing of the balance sheetcreating headroom for capital returns and strategic reinvestments.Bayer (BAYN GR, Buy, EUR32.0): We like Bayer for three key reasons: 1) litigation resolution is in sight; 2) potential for de-gearing; and 3) potential Asundexian positiveclinical catalyst in Q4'25. Adjusting sector risk premium discount rates - changes to WAcCOur equity strategists have updated their cost of equity assumptions that feed into our WACC (see Cost of Equity 2025, 30 June). The expectation of an inflationary environme