耐克和阿迪达斯：宝胜国际6月延续2025年波动趋势，两年累计增长进一步恶化

www.bernsteinresearch.com Other recent work on Nike and Adidas in China:Nike: Past the trough; onwards and upwardsNike: Is the turnaround working? Real-time data points into the Q4 printChina Sportswear Online Monitor: Trend decelerating in MayNike and Adidas: Pou Sheng - Sequentialimprovement in MayUS Specialty Retail & US Transportation: How does China tariff relief impact US supply and demand?China Sportswear Online Monitor: Douyin Driving 24% YTD GrowthAdidas: Outperformance meets UncertaintyChina Premium Consumer Tracker: Scant signs of effective stimulusEXHIBIT 1: Pou Sheng June sales decreased -16.4% Y0YPou Sheng Monthly Revenue - YOY34.8%19.2%15.9%9.2%-0.4%6.3% -6.0%-3.8%-25.8%CSource: Company disclosures, BeMsteiRanalysis仙EXHIBIT 2: 2Y stacked'fevenue is the most negative since June 2024Pou Sheng Monthly Revenue - YOY - 2 year stack0.9%-5.5%-14.5%-12.2%-16.9%Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24Sep-24Oct-24Source: Company disclosures, Bernstein analysisU.5. APPAREL & SPECIALTY RETAIL 24.2%4.7%5.0%-3.9%-9.4%.12.3%-11.9%-14.7%912.0%7.3%-1.6%-3.5%-17.6%-27.6%Nov-24Dec-24Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25BERNSTEIN SOCIETE CENERALE CROUP EXHIBIT 5: Yue Yuen manufacturing monthly revenue grew to 9.4% Y0Y, stronger than June 2024, but weaker thanthebackhalfof2024Yue Yuen - Manufacturing Business - YOY Growth in Monthly Revenue26.7%22.0%21.1%21.3%12.5%13.5%14.9%8.3%10.5%9.4%0.2% 2.5%2.9%3.5%0.5%-2.4%-9.6%-12.2%17.3%24.2%23.9%28.7%Source: Company disclosures, Bernstein analysisU.S. APPAREL & SPECIALTY RETAILBERNSTEINSOCIETECENERALECROUP EXHIBIT 6: YY manufacturing growth remains volatile against a backdrop where China footwear exports have beentrending slightly negativeYoY Change in Footwear Exports vs Sportswear ManufacturingChina Footwear ExportsYueYuenManufacturingRevenue120%100%%0860%chan40%YOY20%0%-20%40%China April YoY change in footwear exports was -7%. Data reporting is not as consistent as Yue YuenSource: General Administration of Customs - People's Republic of China, Bernstein analysisU.S. APPAREL & SPECIALTY RETAILBERNSTEIN SOCIETE CENERALE CROUP4 INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONSWe are Outperform rated on NKE and ADSBERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingCurADS.GR0EURADDYY0USDNKE0USDEDMSPXO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedNKE base year is 2025;Source: Bloomberg,Bernstein estimates and analysisU.S. APPAREL & SPECIALTY RETAIL 9 Jul 2025Closing212.10124.841,472.186,263.26 I.REQUIREDDISCLOSURESReferences to "Bernstein" or the “Firm" in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited andSanfordC.BernsteinJapanKK（7才一卜·C·八一夕个株式会社)On April 1, 2024, Societe Generale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB) completed a transaction that created a new joint venturein which their respective cash equities and research businesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respectiveownership percentages in the joint venture differ between North America and the rest of the world, the creation, production andpublication of research is handled collaboratively on a global basis across the two research brands,"Bernstein" and"Autonomous"Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein's “affiliates" relate to both SG andAB and their respective affliates.VALUATIONMETHODOLOGYadidasAGWe set a 300 price target using a P/E multiple of 25.6x against our forward FY2026 EPS estimate of 11.71.Nike IncWe set a $85 price target using a P/E multiple of 29x our forward FY2027 EPS estimate of $2.90RISKSadidas AGoverdiscounting and/or over-distribution · Pressure on margins as a result of inflation, freight, channel costs, or other opexheadwinds · Risk of interruption from concentrated supplier baseNike IncDownside risks: · Slower growth in Sportswear overall · Slower recovery of Nike in China, and continuing loss of market share :Pressure on DTC margins as a result of inflation, freight, channel costs, or other opex headwinds · Share loss to competitors inkeymarkets including North America·Risk of interruption from concentrated supplierbaseRATINGSDEFINITIONS,BENCHMARKSANDDISTRIBUTIONBernstein brandTheBernsteinbrand ratesstocksbasedonforecastsofrelativeperformanceforthe next12monthsversustheS&P5ooforstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index (EDM) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the Asia Pacificregion, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JP) for stocks listed on the Japanese exchanges,andversustheBloombergAsiaex-JapanLargeandMid CapPriceReturnIndex(ASiAX)forstockslistedontheAsian (ex-Japan)exchan