宝胜和裕元：2025年第一季度模型更新

John Chou * | Equity Analyst852 3743 8792 | john.chou@jefferies.comBoya Zhen * | Equity Analyst852 3743 8774 | bzhen@jefferies.comJingjue Pei * | Equity Analyst852 3767 1224 | jingjue.pei@jefferies.comAnne Ling * | Equity Analyst852 3743 8783 | aling@jefferies.com Summary of ChangesCompanyYue Yuen551 HKPreviousPou Sheng3813 HKPrevious^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise noted.Please see important disclosure information on pages 9 - 14 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. RatingPrice^UNPFHK$11.74BUYHK$0.49 Chart 1 - Pou Sheng: Financial Summary.Income Statement (3813 HK)RMBmnNet SalesYoY% changeCOGSGross ProfitGross marginOperating expensesOther operating gainsOperating ProfitOperating marginNon-operating income/(expense)Pretax ProfitPretax marginNet IncomeYoY% changeNet marginEPS (RMB per share)Balance Sheet (3813 HK)RMBmnTotal AssetTotal LiabilitiesTotal EquityCash and cash equivalentsReceivablesInventoryOther current assetCurrent AssetL/T AssetTrade payableS/T loansS/T lease liabilitiesOther current liabilitiesCurrent LiabilitiesL/T debt (incl. cap lease)L/T lease liabilitiesOther L/T LiabilitiesL/T LiabilitiesCommon equityReservesMinority equityEquityCashflow Statement (3813 HK)RMBmnOperating cashflowInvesting cashflowFinancing cashflowFX adjustmentChange in cashCash beginning balanceCash ending balanceSource: Company data, Jefferies estimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 9 - 14 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Chart 2 - Yue Yuen: Financial Summary.Income Statement (551 HK)USDmnNet SalesYoY% changeCOGSGross ProfitGross marginOperating expensesOperating gainsOperating Profit (JEF)Operating marginNon-operating income/(expense)Pretax ProfitPretax marginNet IncomeYoY% changeNet marginEPS (USD per share)Balance Sheet (551 HK)USDmnTotal AssetTotal LiabilitiesTotal EquityCash and cash equivalentsReceivablesInventoriesOther current assetCurrent AssetNet PP&E & intangiblesLT equity investmentOther L/T assetL/T AssetTrade payableS/T loansOther current liabilitiesCurrent LiabilitiesL/T liabiltiesEquityCashflow Statement (551 HK)USDmnOperating cashflowInvesting cashflowFinancing cashflowFX adjustmentChange in cashCash beginning balanceCash ending balanceSource: Company data, Jefferies estimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 9 - 14 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. The Long View: Yue YuenInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferWe see Yue Yuen as a resourceful company, and it has been adjustingcapacity and product portfolio. We expect the company to continue itsdynamic adjustments.However, Yue Yuen remains sensitive to the macro environment. Thecompany's earnings are likely to be negatively impacted should the macroenvironment deteriorate. In addition, Yue Yuen's margins are very sensitiveto capex. These make the company's earnings and free cash flow verycyclical.Base Case,HK$8, -32%•PT of HK$8 based on DCF.Yue Yuen'smanufacturing business sees orders enter adown cycle.•Thecompanycontinuesreallocation to lower-wage countries.•Margin pressure from inefficiencies causedby relocation, wage hikes and depreciation ofautomated equipment.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s):Environmental impacts in the supply chain: As regulations become morestringent and consumers more aware of environmental issues, Yue Yuen is committed to workingclosely with suppliers to improve production efficiencies and resource savings to mitigate the risksof resource scarcity.Company Target(s):1) Aims for 0% growth in carbon dioxide emission in 2025 compared with thebase year of 2019; 2) Targets to reduce emissions by 46.2% by 2030 compared with the base yearof 2019.Qs to Mgmt:1) What are your labor practices at production sites in Vietnam and Indonesia? 2) Howdo you reduce exposure to price volatility and potential supply disruptions?Please see important disclosure information on pages 9 - 14 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. itscapacityUpside Scenario,HK$16, +36%•Upside PT of HK$16.Yue Yuen's shoe•Yue Yuen's manufacturing operating margin manufacturing revenue growth acceleratesfrom recent trough (driven equally by volumeand ASP).sustains at historical levels thanks to stronger-than-expected orders. Downside Scenario,HK$2.5, -79%•Downside PT of HK$2.5.Yue Yuen'sshoe manufacturing revenue growth sharplydecelerates.•Magnitude of decline is similar to that seenduring a US recession.•Operating deleverage accordingly.Catalysts•Monthly sales of the manufacturing business.•PMI data.•Competitors' monthly sales. 5 Financials: Yue YuenEstimate changesUSDRev. (MM)PreviousOperating Profit (MM)PreviousNet ProfitPreviousEPSPreviousCons. Rev.PreviousCons. EPSPreviousValuation metricsUSDFY P/EPlease see i