亚洲半导体 - 2025年上半年业绩预览：严峻的外汇逆风，但AI仍是焦点

In this preview, we revise our model for TSMC, UMC, Vanguard and Novatek to reflectthe FX pressure. Otherwise, the projection for TSMC is now higher on better near-termmomentum,improvedA/outlookandpossiblepricehike.Rapid FX moves to bring down TSMC"s Taiwan-dollar revenue & margins. BasedonthelatestFXmoves,weassume32.5NT$=1USDin2Q25and29for3Q25&onward. This means TSMC's NT$ revenue will have ~5% headwind vs. its guidanceassumption in 2Q25 and another~6% in 3Q25, and 200bps & 240-250bps gross margin(GM) drag in the two quarters, respectively. On the full-year basis, the FX pressure willbe~5.5%/220bpsforrevenue&GMthisyear&another4-4.5%/170bpsin2026.Wesee TSMC's fundamentals improving but FX makes our projection now below the staleBloomberg consensus.Price hike likely will likely mitigate the FX burden starting early 2026. Consideringidle capacity at 6nm & older but full utilization at 5nm & newer, we see a possible hike oflow-single-digit% for the company average price starting 1Q26. As tariffs increase theappetite for the production in the US, we see another hike before this for the capacity inArizonaQWith improving fundamentals, we now project 29% & 18% USD revenue growth in2q25 & 2026, respectively. Strong April & May sales suggest 2Q25 would be a beat, ande strong enough for us to revise 2025 full-year revenue to rise 29% (vs. the guided mid-20sCCoWoS/HBM model) and healthy adoption & price premium of N2 could propel TSMC'srevenuetosoarbyanother18%inUSDWith an 18% EPS CAGR from 2024 to 2027 and 19x forward, we set 1-year pricetarget for TSMC at NTS1,260 & reiterate Outperform. FX will make EPS growthdecelerate to high-single-digit% in 2026 & it will re-accelerate to 21% in 2027 to achieve18% 3-year CAGR. With that, 19x forward P/E is not too much an ask, and is 23% discountvs. SOx. We assume that has reflected the geopolitical concerns that many have.We maintain Underperform on UMC & Market-Perform on Vanguard, & Novatek.Pull-forward demand from tariffs may help their short-term outlooks slightly, but it ismerelytimingdifference&Fx headwindthat couldeliminate all this benefit and moreInthemediumterm,theeventualtariffs willbehigherthanbefore&destroysomeenddemand, but these companies don't have Al or pricing power to offset that. We're broadlydepreciation&thethreatfromChina.www.bernsteinresearch.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRating2330.TT (TSMC)0OLDTSM0OLD2303.TT (UMC)OLDUMCOLD5347.TT (Vanguard)MOLD3034.TT (Novatek)MOLDASIAXSPXPRICE TARGET CHANGE /ESTIMATE CHANGE IN BOLDO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage Suspended3034.TT valuation is Reported P/E (x);Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSTSMC: We rate TSMC Outperform with TP=NT$1,260 (old NT$1,430) for 2330.TT and US$249 (old US$251) for TSM.US,respectively. Our TP is based on 19x target PE (revised down from 2Ox previously on lower growth in NT$) and rolled forwardQ5-Q8EPS.UMC: We rate UMC Underperform with TP=NTS32 for 2303 TT and TP=USS4.8 for UMC.US, respectively. Our TP isunchanged based on the same 1x target PB.Vanguard: We rate Vanguard Market-Perfbrm with TP=NTs93 unchanged based on the same 3x target PB.Novatek: We rate Novatek Market-Perform with TP=NTS480 (old NT$500) based on 14x (revised up from 13x previouslymainly on lower tariff risk),Argef PE and rolled forward Q5-Q8 EPS.微1信ASIA SEMICONDUCTORS 9eBERNSTEIN SOCIETE CENERALE CROUP DETAILSWe cut our projection for TSMC to recognize the significant headwind from the rapid FX move.However, the rapid FX move in the past 3 months had made 2Q25 FX likely 30.9 for TSMC, and we assume it will be 29for 3Q25 and onward (Exhibit 1). This effectively means TSMC's revenue in NT$ would experience ~5% headwind vs. itsassumptionfor2Q25,andanother~6%in3Q25,andnothingfurtherbeyondthat.: On the full-year basis, with the assumption above, we estimate FX will reduce TSMC's revenue in NTs by ~5.5% YoY this yearand another 4-4.5% in 2026, or ~10% in the two years combined.bring ~200bps GM drag in 2Q25 and another ~240-250bps in 3Q25.: On the full-year basis, the GM pressure from FX, we estimate, will be 220bps this year and another 170bps next year, or~390bps the two years combined.This is why we broadly revise down our projection in this revision, even though we see improving fundamentals, including asmaller impact from tariffs (actually slight benefit from pull-forward demand) & a better Al outlook into 2026.TSMC, we believe, is likely to raise prices next year to mitigate the FX headwind. The raise will be even morenotable for the US production as tariff makes the demand higher.. To mitigate the unfavorable FX shift, TSMC, we believe, will try to reduce costs, and likely to increase prices too. The pricevery difficult for older nodes where TSMC has idle capacity. The size of the price increase may be mid- to high-single-digit%for these leading nodes, or low-single-digit% for the company overall ASP.: Further, tariffs are re