天气影响市场表现的三个投资案例

Restricted -External Data ScienceFan Gao, CFA(i)+1 212 526 8404fan.gao@barclays.comBCI, USVincenzo Potat(i)+44 (0)20 3134 2097vincenzo.pota@barclays.comBarclays, UKMilan Mrazek(ii)+44 (0)20 7773 1695milan.x.mrazek@barclays.comBarclays, UKSustainable Investing ResearchCraig Rye, PhD(v)+1 212526 7669craig.rye@barclays.comBCI, USMaggie O'Neali)+ 44 (0) 20 7773 6924maggie.oneal@barclays.comBarclays, UKU.S. RestaurantsJeffrey A. Bernstein+12125263855jeffrey.bernstein@barclays.comBCI, USU.S. Broadlines, Hardlines & FoodRetailSeth Sigman+1212 526 7417seth.sigman@barclays.comBCI, USEuropean Construction, BuildingMaterials & InfrastructureTomZhang,CFA+44 (0)20 3555 1395tom.zhang1@barclays.comBarclays, UK Data Science and SustainableInvesting: Weather is importantFan Gao, CFA(i) BCl, US I Vincenzo Pota(ii) Barclays, UK IMilan Mrazekii) Barclays, UK I Craig Rye, PhD(v) BCI, US IMaggie O'Neali) Barclays, UKThis section is a Special Report that is not an equity or a debt research report under U.S.FINRARules2241-2242Weatherplaysacriticalroleinshapingeconomicactivity,affectingsegmentsfromagriculture and energy production to retail foot traffic and infrastructure planning. Itinvestors' minds, Over the years, 40-70% of S&P 1500 companies have mentionedweather-related key words like"weather","precipitation","hurricane","storm", or"snowfall" during earnings calls (Figure 1). In 2024, Utilities, Energy and ConsumerDiscretionary mentioned these keywords (Figure 2). We introduce three cases whereweather data can be applied to help understand its financial effect.FIGURE1.Thepercentageof S&P15oo companiesthat mentionweatherkeywordshasbeenconsistentsince2016percentage ofSP1500 companies80%70%60%50%40%70%e10%0%2016201720182019202020212022Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays ResearchFIGURE2.In2o24,Utilities,Energyand ConsumerDiscretionaryhad the highestpercentage ofcompanies talking about weather-related keywords during earnings callspercentage ofS&P1500 companies100%%0680%%0S40%30%20%10%0%Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research 202320242025 As discussed in detail in What's up with the extreme weather?, global average surfacetemperatures have increasedby around1.35o Cabove pre-industrial levels andcurrent policies put the economy on a path to around 3 °C of warming by the end ofthe century.1 Asaveragetemperatures arerising,theseverity ofextreme weatherevents isincreasingat anevenfasterrate.Thefrequencyofextremeweathereventshasincreasedbyaround5xsincethe1980s,whilethecostof extremeweathereventshas increased by nearly 8x over the same period. This implies greater risks and moreassets at risk.2High-quality data are paramount. In You need weather data to know which way thewind blows, we show how we use open-source agency data to build a hourly weatherdataset for the entire globe. The ERA-5 dataset has a spatial resolution of 9km x 9kmat the equator. Nine kilometers is roughly the distance between downtownManhattan and Central Park, while 9km2 is the size of the Milan metropolitan3)FIGURE 3. The world map showing mean temperature (in °C) as of 31 March 2025 based onthe ERA5-Land 2-metretemperature variableMean temperature is calculated based on 24 hourly temperature values on 31st March 2025Source: ECMWF, Barclays ResearchIn the following sections, we present three investment cases that leverage this dataset,coveringtherestaurant,homeimprovement,autopartsandconstructionsectors, along with comments from corresponding sector analysts.(i) This author is a member of the Fixed Income, Currencies and CommoditiesResearch department and is not an equity or debt research analyst.(i) This author is a member of the EMEA Equity Research department who maypublish equity and debt research(v) This author is a registered US equity research analyst who is subject to US FINRARule 2241 and who may write debt research under FINRA Rule 2242.1 "Emissions Gap Report 2024", United Nations Environment Programme, November 20232 "Billion Dollar Events" NOAA, July 2025 Data Science and Sustainable Investing: Badweather is not always badFan Gao, CFA(i) BCl, US I Vincenzo Pota(ii) Barclays, UK IMilan Mrazekii) Barclays, UK I Craig Rye, PhD(v) BCI, US IMaggie O'Nealii Barclays, UKThis section is a Special Report that is not an equity or a debt research report under U.S.FINRARules2241-2242The financial effect of adverse weather often depends on the nature of thebusiness. For restaurants, a downpour may discourage people from dining out,pushing consumers to stay home. Even with the growing adoption of food deliveryapps, the in-person dining experience remains sensitive to weather disruption.However, the home improvement sector may see a different pattern. Weatherdamage can prompt consumers to repair or replace items, possibly driving demandupward. Grocery retail, on the other hand, tends to be resilient. Shoppers maypostpone trips during storms or snow, but typically return once conditions clear orsimply pile up ahead.To study these dynamics, we leverage