已逝者或许永不消逝

Restricted -External Hale Holden+12124121524hale.holden@barclays.comBCI, USCarolyn Popelka+1212526 0935carolynanne.popelka@barclays.comBCI, US Petsafe (PETSAF)Petsafe 2029 9.5% secured notes are trading at $83/$84, which is at or near the lows following asell-off after 1Q earnings in May. Around 30% of the company's sales are generated on Amazonand the company has engaged Pattern as an Amazon accelerator to hep it improve its Amazonsalesperformance.Pattern,similartootheraccelerators,helpsbrandsbetterpositionreviews, and helping move brands higher up on the page to increase purchase frequency.Given the large percentage of the company's sales online (largely through Chewy and Amazon)and recent quarterly underperformance, the hope is that the Pattern engagement will bear fruitquickly. The company has relatively aggressive 2H guidance that it provided on the previousearnings call, which we believe is based on a relatively quick ramp in results from Pattern.We expect the 2Q release in late August to be pivotal for market sentiment. We model thecompany has having adequate liquidity and time to prove this out and are more bullish on thehiring of an accelerator than current market pricing. If Petsafe is able to post modesttraction with Pattern, we think the bonds could recover to the low s90s or 11-11.5% YTW, morein line with CCC stressed credits. 2 B&G Foods (BGS)B&G 2027 notes are at $92, or 540bp, with the 2028 first lien bonds at $96, or 495bp. Both notesare near recent lows and have meaningfully underperformed the broader index rally. In earlyJuly, the company secured a revolver amendment providing modestly more leverage headroomin exchange for a reduced commitment size.Net leverage at 1Q was 7x, and the LTV attach is screening increasingly high, given compressionin packaged food equity multiples. B&G equity is down 39% YTD (versus the S&P500 +5.9% YTD),and the company's dividend yield is now over 18%.We continue to believe that B&G will be able to extend maturities. It likely requires somecombination of a dividend cut, execution on the announced sale of Green Giant, and recovery inpackaged food volumes (this last point remains largely out of the company's control). Webelieve a holistic refinancing is more likely than an extension of just the 2027 notes.Our current 2Q LTM EBITDA estimate of $278mn ($62mn in 2Q), puts net leverage at 7.1x. Wereiterate our Overweight rating on the 2027 unsecured notes, as we believe the company will beable to extend the maturity,Market Weight on the 2028 first lien notes and preference for theterm loan which is currently trading at s92, given the dollar discount to the secured notes.FIGURE5.B&G2027s and2028s Spread vs.HYIndex,Last ThreeYears800700300200100Oct 22Jan 23U.S. Corporate High Yield - OAS BGS 5.25 2027-09-15 - OAS TreasWOpeninBarclaysLiveChartSource: Credit - Barclays Trading, S&P Global Market Intelligence; Bloomberg Indices - Bloomberg Apr 23Jul 23Oct 23Apr 24Jul 24Oct24Jan 25Apr 25Jul 25y OAS BGS 8.0 2028-09-15 - OASeasury OAS Kohl's (KSS)KSS 2031s are trading at $72, or 12% YTW, while the 2045s are trading at $54, or 11.5% YTW,reverting back to levels just before "Liberation Day" In May, the company issued s320mn insecured propco notes with relatively strong collateral, which funded the 2025 notes at maturity.In our view, the company's structural issues originated before any tariff headlines, as it wasstruggling back when the consumer environment looked healthier. The company's abrupt CEOtransition does not help, and the strategy put in place by prior management reads as areiteration of recovery attempts. The strategy includes increasing private label mix, re-positioning these categories near Sephora to promote cross-selling. The company hashistorically struggled to find a suitable private label mix, and the Sephora integration has notbeen as successful in bringing in incremental sales as planned. Our largest concern is Kohl'scustomer attrition and fight to keep relevant as a mid-tier department store. The companyfrustrated its core value-seeking customer when it shifted to a complex and exclusive couponprogram and increased proprietary brands.For2025,ksSguidedcomparablesalesdown5-7%,andweeklyALTDsuggeststheretailerlagged broader department store sales performance for the majority of 2QWe affirm our Underweight rating on the 2031s, given weak trends. We also reiterate our MarketWeight on the 2030 notes, as we think the underlying real estate collateral helps to offset theweaker operating performance.FIGURE6.KSS vs.Department Stores ALTDWeekly Sales15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%5.0%-10.0%-15.0% ALTD Weekly Sales5/DepartmentStoresKSS4 Sotheby's (BID)Sotheby's2027sand2029s havewidenedYTD.BID2029saretradingat$91/92,or8.4%YTW,equating to a 450bp spread, versus closer to 400bp as the start of the year. The companycontinues to race a relatively subdued global auction market, with spring sales largely stableversus a trough 2024, while the company had hoped for a reboundearlier