私人信贷如何重塑财富组合

Huw van SteenisBen PhillipsLaura WatkinParth Agarwal WHY READ THIS REPORT? Individual investors are the next frontier for private credit. We estimatethat wealth portfolios already account for 12% of the private credit assetsof leading firms today and are growing four times faster than assets frominstitutional investors. There is an explosion of new funds and partnerships seeking to capitalizeon the mainstreaming of private credit, particularly via “evergreen funds,”as investors increasingly barbell their fixed-income allocations, combininglow-cost bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) at one end with higher-yielding, less liquid private credit at the other. Private credit evergreen fundsare among the fastest growing parts of the investing world, we think. Thosein interval fund envelopes are growing at an annualized rate of roughly 70%this year and those in non-listed business development companies (BDCs) byabout 50%. Advisers and investment firms we surveyed suggest private credit assetsfrom wealthy individuals could double to quadruple in the next five years asprivate credit increasingly becomes a core component in a broader credit, oralternatives, sleeve of a portfolio. As the lines become increasingly blurredbetween private and public credit, we explore what this could mean both forinvestors’ portfolios and the investment firms servingthem. GATES OPEN FOR AFFLUENT TO INVESTIN PRIVATE CREDIT Once the domain of pension funds, insurers, andthe uber-wealthy, private credit is undergoing aquiet transformation. public assets. Many wealthy investors are startingto adopt a “barbell” strategy — combining low-costbond ETFs at one end with higher-yielding, less liquidprivate credit at the other. This barbell effect, long ahallmark of equity investing, is now reshaping bondinvesting and has a very long way to run. Product innovation and technological advances arerapidly opening the door to a new class of investor:individuals who are affluent but not in the top tier ofthe ultra-rich. One blended fund that invests in publicand private assets now has a minimum investment ofjust $1,000. Technology, meanwhile, is enabling a simplerprocess. Private assets have historically been a heavylift in their document demands and sold in large lots.But this is being streamlined into something closer tothe experience of buying a mutual fund, albeit with afew more signatures. The result is one of the fastest-growing segmentsin investing. Private credit holdings by the wealthyhave grown 2.5-fold in the last three years — fourtimes faster than the traditional institutionalbusiness. On new estimates by Oliver Wyman,these investors now account for roughly 12% ofthe private credit assets of leading firms. Much ofthis is still concentrated in the hands of the ultra-rich, but the ambition is clear: to bring privatecredit into the mainstream of wealth portfolios.Oliver Wymanestimates the top seven firmshave around $275 billion of private credit assetsunder management from the wealthy and thetotal industry to have between $325 billion and$375 billion. How far could this go? Advisers and managers thatOliver Wyman has surveyed suggest private creditallocations by wealthy individuals could double orquadruple in the next five years as they becomea component in a broader credit portfolio. Still,success will hinge on asset managers solving fourkey challenges. First, liquidity management. Private credit, bydefinition, is illiquid. Firms will need to navigatethe likely cyclical nature of retail capital flowsand maintain underwriting discipline amid rapidgrowth. Those with diverse origination channelsand strong risk controls will be better placed todo this. Evergreen funds, which allow new investors to buyand redeem stakes periodically rather than investfor a fixed period, are transforming access. One keyreason is the ability to put funds to work right outof the gate, unlike so-called drawdown funds whichmake complex cash demands on investors, callingin committed funds over time to deploy. Second, cost-effective distribution. Reachinghundreds of thousands of financial advisers acrossthe US and internationally is no small task. Privatecredit firms typically lack the sales infrastructureto address retail channels at scale, while traditionalasset managers often lack deep expertise inprivate markets. Investors are also rethinking what makes adiversified credit portfolio, asking why they shouldput 100% of fixed income investmentinto This creates a compelling rationale for partnerships— such as Apollo’s tie-up with Lord Abbett, KKR’swith Capital Group, and Blackstone’s alliances withWellington and Vanguard. Expect more of these toemerge — as well as some further acquisitions toadd capabilities. 401(k) pensions plans in private assets. Broadly,private credit is likely to become a component indiversified credit portfolios — including managedinvestment accounts. In some ways, this is akin tothe mainstreaming of derivatives in credit mutualfunds in